Gospodarska kriza 2018

https://www.ft.com/content/4701031a-253...
Fears of a eurozone slowdown have mounted after the economy stagnated at the end of 2018, growing just 0.2 per cent between the third and fourth quarters last year.

The flash estimate of growth from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics bureau, is in line with the disappointing figure for the previous quarter, which put growth at its lowest level in more than four years, and tallies with economists’ forecasts. Italy, the third-largest economy in the eurozone, fell into a technical recession after its second consecutive quarter of contraction.

The evidence of eurozone weakness comes as policy officials around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook. The US Federal Reserve last night dramatically reversed course and said it would put further rate rises on hold over signs that global growth was weakening.

Fears of a eurozone slowdown have mounted after the economy stagnated at the end of 2018, growing just 0.2 per cent between the third and fourth quarters last year.

The flash estimate of growth from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics bureau, is in line with the disappointing figure for the previous quarter, which put growth at its lowest level in more than four years, and tallies with economists’ forecasts. Italy, the third-largest economy in the eurozone, fell into a technical recession after its second consecutive quarter of contraction.

The evidence of eurozone weakness comes as policy officials around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook. The US Federal Reserve last night dramatically reversed course and said it would put further rate rises on hold over signs that global growth was weakening.

The European Central Bank last week downgraded its assessment for risks to growth just six weeks after dropping the most important part of its crisis-era stimulus — the expansion of its €2.6tn quantitative easing programme.

“The underlying pace of growth is likely to slow further,” said Christoph Weil, economist at Commerzbank. “A prerequisite for the stabilisation of the economy that we expect to see in the spring is a recovery in demand from China, an easing of the trade conflict between the US and China, and no hard Brexit.”

Initial indications are that momentum has waned further since the start of the year. The €-coin indicator, a bellwether for the direction of GDP, on Thursday fell to a two-and-a-half year low of 0.31 in January, down from 0.42 in December. Purchasing managers' indices have also dipped to multiyear lows.

Both polls signal that political uncertainty is denting business confidence and that the eurozone’s manufacturers are particularly exposed to weak external demand.

Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, has signalled that the bank will act if evidence of a prolonged slowdown in momentum continued to mount.

But Mr Draghi has also indicated the barrier to an about-turn on QE is high, saying earlier this week that it was unlikely there would be further QE measures in 2019.

Any additional action by the ECB is likely to involve tweaks to its message, such as implying further delays in raising rates and in halting the pace of reinvestments of QE bonds as they mature, say economists. Those reinvestments are set to keep the size of the programme at its current level of €2.6tn for years to come.

Italy has seen investment decline on the back of concerns over the political environment and poor longer-term growth prospects. French growth figures were better than expected in the fourth quarter, But Germany, the region’s largest economy, is driven by a €1.6tn export machine and is exposed to weak global growth.

The German government has already slashed its projections for growth from 1.8 per cent to 1 per cent for this year and some ministers are calling for stimulus to support investment..

Economists had initially hoped that the weaknesses seen in the previous quarter were down to one-off factors, such as delays in German auto manufacturers meeting new EU emissions standards and low water levels on the Rhine hampering deliveries. But data published in recent months were almost all disappointing, and hopes of a bounceback had dimmed.


zanimivo, kako zgleda kot da grejo vsi sektorji v vseh regijah v recesijo ob priblizno istem casu.

Vazelin je 31. jan 2019 ob 18:19 izjavil:

Italijansko gospodarstvo se je skrčilo v zadnjem četrtletju. Recesija na vidiku? In to ob zastonj denarju :/

Ta je zastonj = samo za I.Centralno banko, za banke malce manj zastonj, za gospodarstvo pa glih ne ...

China GDP Drops to the Floor ? - YT 12min
http://skrci.me/oXb9d

"Anti-establishment government" je oksimoron. They are the establishment now. Čeprav imajo "get out of jail free card", za vsako sranje lahko okrivijo strice iz ozadja, napake predhodnikov, napade iz tujine...

Na šihtu so nam dali poslovni partnerji iz Nemčije vedeti, da se bo število naročil zmanjšalo, še preden recesija udari - že šparajo za zgleda neizogibne hude čase. Italijani o tem še ne razmišljajo, čeprav že imajo recesijo.

Timurlenk je 1. feb 2019 ob 12:21 izjavil:

Konzervativci bi še kar konzervirali, čeprav če bi konzervativci v zgodovini zmagali, bi še vedno živeli v jamah, še naprej ne bi ukrotili ognja in še naprej ne bi poznali kolesa ...

Ni dovolj, da si geniji kot ti zamislijo krasni novi svet. Potem rabite še konzervativce, da ga naredijo.

Če ne verjameš pojdi pogledat v Rog in občuduj vse tehnološke inovacije katere so bile tam ustvarjene v razmerah anarhokomunizma.

ZaphodBB je 1. feb 2019 ob 12:24 izjavil:

Če ne verjameš pojdi pogledat v Rog in občuduj vse tehnološke inovacije katere so bile tam ustvarjene v razmerah anarhokomunizma.

Med drugim se je ustvarilo ogromno dodane vrednosti, ki je niso pobrali lastniki, ampak se je prenesla na vse, ki Rog obiščejo ali v njem delajo.

Aquafriend je 1. feb 2019 ob 12:35 izjavil:

Konzervativec je izumil ogenj.

Nah, če bi ga, bi bil ogenj prepovedan.

jype je 1. feb 2019 ob 13:00 izjavil:

Med drugim se je ustvarilo ogromno dodane vrednosti, ki je niso pobrali lastniki, ampak se je prenesla na vse, ki Rog obiščejo ali v njem delajo.

katera pa je ta dodana vrednost?

gruntfürmich je 1. feb 2019 ob 13:25 izjavil:

katera pa je ta dodana vrednost?

Ti teh reči ne razumeš.

ZaphodBB je 1. feb 2019 ob 13:28 izjavil:

Progresivce so naučili o radostih multikulturalizma!

Konzervativci ste zblojeni.

ZaphodBB je 1. feb 2019 ob 15:00 izjavil:

Kdor ne sprejme noža med rebra je zblojen rasist!

Ti si zblojen rasist v vsakem primeru, nož med rebra ti pa itak potisne sosed, ker si mu ponoči premaknil mejnik.

ZaphodBB je 1. feb 2019 ob 15:59 izjavil:

Pravilno, kdor ponoči premika mejnike si boljšega ne zasluži.

Razen, kadar je premikanje mejnikov halucinacija, skrajno podobna uvažanju migrantov.

jype je 1. feb 2019 ob 16:00 izjavil:

ZaphodBB je 1. feb 2019 ob 15:59 izjavil:

Pravilno, kdor ponoči premika mejnike si boljšega ne zasluži.

Razen, kadar je premikanje mejnikov halucinacija, skrajno podobna uvažanju migrantov.

Back to the roots

Ljudi informirati o njihovih pravicah je vsekakor humanitarna dejavnost.

Laganje ljudem, ki naj te sprejmejo je res človekova pravica. Ravno tako je človekova pravica zloraba njihovega gostoljublja.

Lol a še koga ta italijanski predsednik vlade spominja na Antonio Decocco iz Inglorious Bastards

Če nisi gledal Inglorius Bastards si zame precej lame

Samo dal sem dobronameren nasvet Vazelinu. Ker mojih nasvetov nikol ne uposteva se zmer isce zensko in holda tezos.

Ima kdo kakšne grafe, kjer se vidi, kakšen bo primanjkljaj Slovenije, v kolikor je gospodarska rast 0% ali celo blaga recesija (npr. -1%)?

Vazelin je 17. feb 2019 ob 14:10 izjavil:

Verjetno realen pokazatelj stanja gospodarstva bi bil, da se ukinejo vsi stimulusi.

Uf ne daj bože... Ko/če se ukine QE in posledično gredo obrestne mere gor, je recesija tukaj. In pa razprodaja nepremičnin, ker ljudje ne bodo mogli plačevati kreditov, balonček bo počil. Resno, če je gospodarska rast taka kot je ob trenutni negativni obrestni meri, potem je nekaj zelo narobe.

Vazelin je 17. feb 2019 ob 14:22 izjavil:

Saj Draghi je rekel "whatever it takes".
When helicopterh money? :D

Ne vem kako bo z dostavo, pri nas imajo vse pokvarjene. https://www.vecer.com/policijski-heliko...

Drugače pa zgledajo res čisto obupani Draghi & Co.

Vazelin je 17. feb 2019 ob 14:22 izjavil:

Saj Draghi je rekel "whatever it takes".
When helicopterh money? :D

Helicopter money bi bil bistveno boljša ideja kot to, kar smo dejansko naredili po 2008.

Od mainstream predlaganih programov je to najbolje, od dejansko izpeljanega po 2008 pa bistveno najbolje. Nisem videl nekega mainstream ekonomista, ki bi predlagal vsaj srednjeročno rešitev. Mogoče ob naslednjem crashu...

https://novice.svet24.si/clanek/novice/...

Po rezultatih raziskave 15 odstotkov delodajalcev nacrtuje rast zaposlovanja, 2 odstotka upad, 82 odstotkov pa sprememb v zaposlitveni strukturi ne predvideva.

Se še živo spomnim, kako se je zaposlovanje 2008 čez noč obrnilo. Če gre sedaj svet v recesijo bo pri nas hitro velik upad delovnih mest

https://www.delo.si/gospodarstvo/novice...

ZaphodBB je 4. apr 2019 ob 12:28 izjavil:

USA imperij se bo pod nekompetenco Drumfa končno sesul!!!

In sedaj bo razsvetljena evropa pokazala kako je socializem edina zveličavna ekonomska paradigma!!!

Tu se bosta cedila med in mleko, UTD nam bo omogočil da si končno vsak kupi Ferarija, delat nam pa sploh ne bo treba ker bomo vse selili na Kitajsko, Indijo in Bolgarijo.

Burgers BTFO!

Se vredu pocutmo?

Leaker49 je 4. apr 2019 ob 12:43 izjavil:

dice7 je 4. apr 2019 ob 12:39 izjavil:

Se vredu pocutmo?

Poberi se naci! UTD je moja in ZaphodBB-ova osnovna temeljna človeška pravica. Nihče ti ne brani da hodiš delat, samo ti nasprotuješ moji človeški pravici.

Dobro si ga, fašista neoliberalnega!