Gospodarska kriza 2018

looser je 18. dec 2018 ob 14:37 izjavil:

Mr.B je 18. dec 2018 ob 10:19 izjavil:

Öe hoöeü fajn zgubit na nepremiönini, potem kupi bajto ob morju.

Ker?

The Fed knows it is currently in a catch-22. That's why over the last two weeks, it has barely sold any of its assets as volatility in the markets picked up.

Here's something else you might not know: Two weeks ago, it even quietly increased its book of assets. That's the opposite of the policy of unwinding, or selling its assets through quantitative tightening (QT), which is what Chairman Powell promised he would be doing.

That's another sign that the Fed is afraid of a possible new financial crisis. For more proof, consider that former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, just did a 180 on her prior comments related to the possibility of another crisis. Last June, she said that she didn't think there would be another financial crisis in her lifetime, attributing this to banking reforms made since the 2008 financial crisis.

Now, everything has changed. Last week, she told the New York Times that, "Corporate indebtedness is now quite high and I think it's a danger that if there's something else that causes a downturn, that high levels of corporate leverage could prolong the downturn and lead to lots of bankruptcies in the non-financial corporate sector."

She noted that CLOs could be a real problem, as I've been warning for months. CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations, are a Wall Street product stuffed with corporate loans. If that sounds familiar to you, there's a reason. Wall Street is doing exactly what they did with mortgage loans before the 2008 financial crisis, but with corporate ones.

Her timing was not random. Just because she's no longer running the Fed doesn't mean she has no contact with its new leader, who was her number two. The people and connections within central banks and Wall Street are always in play.

The danger in her analysis is that she's largely mistaken that "current holders of corporate debt do not appear to be levered to excess, mitigating risk of any credit ripple effects." The data bears this out.

Companies are holding $9.1 trillion of debt now in contrast to the $4.9 trillion in 2007 before the last financial crisis. The financial system, and those who take money from banks, are more highly levered than they were prior to the last financial crisis.

In its inaugural Financial Stability Report, the Fed stressed lurking dangers in corporate debt. Although the Fed also used the opportunity to pat itself on the back for how well capitalized banks were, just as Janet Yellen did, the trouble was still highlighted.

The Fed noted that corporate debt relative to GDP is at record highs, and that credit standards have gotten worse again. The amount of junk bonds and leveraged loans or "risky debt" has risen by 5% in the third quarter of 2018 to over $2 trillion in size.

ZaphodBB je 21. dec 2018 ob 22:16 izjavil:

To je res za popizdit smešno.

Vazelin je 24. dec 2018 ob 02:01 izjavil:

ps: zakaj ste tako prepričani o 2019/20. Takšne krize kot je bila dolgo ne bo.

Timurlenk je 25. dec 2018 ob 09:54 izjavil:

Zheegec je 24. dec 2018 ob 22:24 izjavil:

Prosti trg ne obstaja. No, mogoče obstaja nekje v sredini Sahare, kjer ni policije, zakonov, sodišč, denarnih valut in ostalega.

Obstaja v Somaliji, Sudanu itd. Big moneyz.

Zheegec je 24. dec 2018 ob 22:24 izjavil:

Prosti trg ne obstaja. No, mogoče obstaja nekje v sredini Sahare, kjer ni policije, zakonov, sodišč, denarnih valut in ostalega.

Vazelin je 30. dec 2018 ob 16:52 izjavil:

A ima kdo občutek...se bo precej hujša kriza tudi zaradi ukrepov od 2008 dalje vrnila kot bumerang še veliko veliko močnejša?