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Wikileaks: email sporočila med raziskovalci klimatskih sprememb

Bistri007 ::

Wikileaks je objavil email sporočila med raziskovalci klimatskih sprememb


Climatic Research Unit emails, data, models, 1996-2009
Released November 21, 2009

This archive presents over 120Mb of emails, documents, computer code and models from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, written between 1996 and 2009.

The CRU has told the BBC that the files were obtained by a computer hacker 3-4 days ago.

This archive includes unreleased global temperature analysis computer source code that has been the subject of Freedom of Information Act requests.
The archive appears to be a collection of information put together by the CRU prior to a FoI redaction process.

Primary language: English
File size in bytes: 64936854
File type information: ZIP
Cryptographic identity: SHA256 0364b2bce1fea6a3906707a9804a2f8b2b6b6bfa0234479cd363e9c368c60166

Datoteka je dostopna preko magnet povezave:
Wikileaks: Climatic Research Unit emails, data, models, 1996-2009
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Gregor P ::

Čisto slučajno mi noče odpreti stran http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Talk:Climatic...:D
The main failure in computers is usually located between keyboard and chair.
You read what you believe and you believe what you read ...
Nisam čit'o, ali osudjujem (nisem bral, a obsojam).

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: Gregor P ()

Bistri007 ::

Nisem slučajno dal magnet linka, cel Wikileaks in njihovi mirrorji na Švedskem, ZDA, Finskem, Nizozemski, Poljski in Tongi so dol...

V nadaljevanju še članek z WSJ.com:

Hacked Emails Show Climate Science Ridden with Rancor
NOVEMBER 21, 2009, 3:39 P.M. ET

By KEITH JOHNSON

The picture that emerges of prominent climate-change scientists from the more than 3,000 documents and emails accessed by hackers and put on the Internet this week is one of professional backbiting and questionable scientific practices. It could undermine the idea that the science of man-made global warming is entirely settled just weeks before a crucial climate-change summit.

Researchers at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, England, were victims of a cyberattack by hackers sometime Thursday. A collection of emails dating back to the mid-1990s as well as scientific documents were splashed across the Internet. University officials confirmed the hacker attack, but couldn't immediately confirm the authenticity of all the documents posted on the Internet.

The publicly posted material includes years of correspondence among leading climate researchers, most of whom participate in the preparation of climate-change reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the authoritative summaries of global climate science that influence policy makers around the world.

The release of the documents comes just weeks before a big climate-change summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, meant to lay the groundwork for a new global treaty to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and fight climate change. Momentum for an agreement has been undermined by the economic slump, which has put environmental issues on the back burner in most countries, and by a 10-year cooling trend in global temperatures that runs contrary to many of the dire predictions in climate models such as the IPCC's.

A partial review of the emails shows that in many cases, climate scientists revealed that their own research wasn't always conclusive. In others, they discussed ways to paper over differences among themselves in order to present a "unified" view on climate change. On at least one occasion, climate scientists were asked to "beef up" conclusions about climate change and extreme weather events because environmental officials in one country were planning a "big public splash."

The release of the documents has given ammunition to many skeptics of man-made global warming, who for years have argued that the scientific "consensus" was less robust than the official IPCC summaries indicated and that climate researchers systematically ostracized other scientists who presented findings that differed from orthodox views.

Since the hacking, many Web sites catering to climate skeptics have pored over the material and concluded that it shows a concerted effort to distort climate science. Other Web sites catering to climate scientists have dismissed those claims.

The tension between those two camps is apparent in the emails. More recent messages showed climate scientists were increasingly concerned about blog postings and articles on leading skeptical Web sites. Much of the internal discussion over scientific papers centered on how to pre-empt attacks from prominent skeptics, for example.

Fellow scientists who disagreed with orthodox views on climate change were variously referred to as "prats" and "utter prats." In other exchanges, one climate researcher said he was "very tempted" to "beat the crap out of" a prominent, skeptical U.S. climate scientist.

In several of the emails, climate researchers discussed how to arrange for favorable reviewers (!!!) for papers they planned to publish in scientific journals. At the same time, climate researchers at times appeared to pressure scientific journals not to publish research by other scientists whose findings they disagreed with.

One email from 1999, titled "CENSORED!!!!!" showed one U.S.-based scientist uncomfortable with such tactics. "As for thinking that it is 'Better that nothing appear, than something unacceptable to us' … as though we are the gatekeepers of all that is acceptable in the world of paleoclimatology seems amazingly arrogant. Science moves forward whether we agree with individual articles or not," the email said.

More recent exchanges centered on requests by independent climate researchers for access to data used by British scientists for some of their papers. The hacked folder is labeled "FOIA," a reference to the Freedom of Information Act requests made by other scientists for access to raw data used to reach conclusions about global temperatures.

Many of the email exchanges discussed ways to decline such requests for information, on the grounds that the data was confidential or was intellectual property. In other email exchanges related to the FOIA requests, some U.K. researchers asked foreign scientists to delete all emails related to their work for the upcoming IPCC summary. In others, they discussed boycotting scientific journals that require them to make their data public.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1258834...
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Gregor P ::

Sedaj mi občasno še slo-techova stran ne deluje8-O:D
The main failure in computers is usually located between keyboard and chair.
You read what you believe and you believe what you read ...
Nisam čit'o, ali osudjujem (nisem bral, a obsojam).

Bistri007 ::

Zanimivo branje še na http://market-ticker.org/archives/1648-...


Here are some interesting "meta statistics" on the documents, and the number of times the words referenced appear:
* Fraud: 79
* Falsify: 6
* Inflate: 14
* Conceal: 5
* Hide: 19


Iz emailov:

2. You can delete this attachment if you want. Keep this quiet also, but this is the person who is putting in FOI requests for all emails Keith and Tim have written and received re Ch 6 of AR4. We think we've found a way around this.

...

Mike,

Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He's not in at the moment - minor family crisis.

Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email address.

We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.


I see that CA claim they discovered the 1945 problem in the Nature paper!!
Cheers
Phil
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Gregor P ::

Tukaj sem našel še nekaj v nemščini->

gulli.com: Email-Leak füttert Zweifel an Klimawandel
Ein Hacker hat mehr als 1000 E-Mails und über 3000 Dokumente eines britischen Klimaforschungsinstituts öffentlich gemacht. Verneiner des Klimawandels sehen in den Schriftstücken Beweise für eine Verschwörung der Wissenschaftler.


Guess where that email originated? NASA.

(tudi businessinsider.com očitno imajo INFO prav tako iz market-ticker.org)
The main failure in computers is usually located between keyboard and chair.
You read what you believe and you believe what you read ...
Nisam čit'o, ali osudjujem (nisem bral, a obsojam).

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: Gregor P ()

Bistri007 ::

V znanosti ne sme biti prostora:
- za prikrivanje podatkov, ki ti niso všeč, in njihovo brisanje pred javnostjo,
- namerno zavajanje znanstvene skupnosti in javnosti.

Še posebej ne sme biti tovrstnih "pristopov" v taki znanosti, katere rezultati bodo stali tisoče milijard evrov!

Kolikor vem, sta samo dve znanosti označeni za "dokončni" (angl. settled):
- evolucijski "nauk" (še besede teorija ne smeš uporabiti), in
- klimatska znanost.

Da sta to dve znanosti z najmanj dokazi (eksperimentalna metoda nemogoča) najbrž ni potrebno posebej omenjati...
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenilo: Bistri007 ()

PaX_MaN ::

Torej, kaj naj bi sploh hoteli prikrit? Da segrevanje je ali da ga ni?
Neresno trolanje JS @ https://github.com/paxman/ZDIJZovanje
Za tenorista me imajo: BSi, Policija, MF.
Kar pogreje me pri srcu!

WarpedOne ::

Da od leta 1998 naprej temperaturna povprečja padajo.
One does not know what one does not know.

TESKAn ::

Eden večjih problemov je znan "hockey stick" graf. Glede na e - maile je ta graf najprej zgledal bolj položen na koncu in kot tak se ni ujemal ne s teorijo globalnega segrevanja, ne z meritvami zadnjih desetletji. Da je to "popravil", je Mann k podatkom, ki jih je imel prištel podatke iz meritev, vse skupaj zgladil in objavil svetu kot ultimativen dokaz, že znani "hockey stick".

Seveda pa je problem, če uporabiš izmerjene podatke, da "popraviš" svojo aproksimacijo. Namreč če se tvoja aproksimacija _ne_ ujema z izmerjenimi podatki, potem se ne vprašaš, kako bi zadevo "prilagodil", ampak vržeš aproksimacijo skozi okno. Če se podatki za zadnja desetletja ne ujemajo, kako naj bodo točni podatki za prejšnja?

In to je eden od problemov. Podatki, za katere se sedaj ve, da so zanič, so uporabljali kot dokaz, da je bilo segrevanje edinstveno v zgodovini. V resnici pa tega na podlagi teh podatkov _ne moreš_ trdit.
Uf! Uf! Je rekel Vinetou in se skril za skalo, ki jo je prav v ta namen nosil s seboj.

Gregor P ::

BBC: Hackers target leading climate research unit
The e-mail system of one of the world's leading climate research units has been breached by hackers.


Še včerajšnja novica o tem na RTVS: Okolijski znanstveniki manipulirali s podatki?
Univerza ne more potrditi, ali so objavljena sporočila pristna
21. november 2009 ob 21:56
London - MMC RTV SLO

Razkrita vsebina ukradenih elektronskih sporočil vodilnih strokovnjakov za okolje je vrgla senco dvoma na njihove trditve o globalnem segrevanju.


... in pa čisto tako za poleg, novica SIOL (STA): Umanotera predstavila dokument o mitih in resnicah o podnebnih spremembah, z 12. novembra letos:
Obstaja upanje, da se piše tretja zgodba nacionalnega soglasja v Sloveniji - po osamosvojitvi in vključevanju v transatlantske povezave še soglasje o prehodu Slovenije v nizkoogljično družbo, je na današnji predstavitvi dokumenta o mitih in resnicah o podnebnih spremembah poudarila direktorica Umanotere Vida Ogorelec Wagner.

Umanotera: Miti in resnice o podnebnih spremembah
The main failure in computers is usually located between keyboard and chair.
You read what you believe and you believe what you read ...
Nisam čit'o, ali osudjujem (nisem bral, a obsojam).

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: Gregor P ()

Double_J ::

Tole operacijo so zelo možno kakšni naftarji izvedli... saj gre za prelomne trenutke.
Dve šivanki...

Pyr0Beast ::

When money talks bullshit walks. En velik nateg je bil to vse skupaj.
Some nanoparticles are more equal than others

Good work: Any notion of sanity and critical thought is off-topic in this place

Bistri007 ::

Double_J, a si ti predstavljaš, koliko bi stala zamenjava vseh asfaltnih cest z betonskimi?

Neka dvomljiva znanost (katere znanstveniki frizirajo rezultate) ti pravi, da bo čez 100 let zaradi asfaltnih cest plima malo višja. A greš za ceno 1000 mlrd € in več danes zamenjati vse asfaltne ceste z betonskimi, ali pa v prihodnosti - če bo potreba - za veliko nižjo ceno zgradiš malo višji zid ob morju?

Seveda so vsi zeleni verniki proti poceni grajenju višjega zidu proti plimi (geoinžiniring), ampak namesto tega hočejo drago zamenjavo cest danes.

Double_J, in če nisi za metanje denarja (človeškega truda, materiala, BDP) za drag brezploden projekt zamenjave vseh asfaltnih cest z betonskimi, si pa naftar???
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Double_J ::

Pa sej jaz nisem rekel, kaj slabega o naftarjih. A je tako zgledalo?
Dve šivanki...

Rogue ::

To se financira, nato to pograbijo politiki in na koncu mora Slovenija plačevat odškodnino, ker ni sposobna zmanjšati emisij glede na Kjotski sporazum. A naš CO2 je pa kaj drugačen od CO2ja nepodpisnikov?
Potem maš pa take traparije kot v Londonu, ko uvedejo ne vem kakšno takso za vstop in na koncu polovico vseh tistih milijonskih sredstev, pobranih od folka, porabijo za izvedbo in administracijo..... Čisti nateg na suho.
Potem bi še države najraje obdavčile ne vem kaj vse, da bi te prepričale v nakup novega avta, ki je sicer isti kot stari, le da ima mogoče 5 % močnejšo bočno ojačitev, airbag za kolena in 5 % manjši izputst CO2. Zelo racionalna poraba 20+ čukov evrov.......

Gregor P ::

BBC: Copenhagen climate summit: 60 world leaders to attend
Climate sceptics say the e-mails, stolen from the University of East Anglia by a hacker, show that important data behind the climate change debate has been manipulated. They are demanding an independent inquiry into the science behind any deal in Copenhagen.
The main failure in computers is usually located between keyboard and chair.
You read what you believe and you believe what you read ...
Nisam čit'o, ali osudjujem (nisem bral, a obsojam).

Pyr0Beast ::

Podpiram resnico. :)
Some nanoparticles are more equal than others

Good work: Any notion of sanity and critical thought is off-topic in this place

Matthai ::

Zanimivo. Vsekakor dovolj indicev za preiskavo. Če se odkrijejo nepravilnosti, je treba goljufe strogo kaznovat.

V znanosti ne sme biti prostora:
- za prikrivanje podatkov, ki ti niso všeč, in njihovo brisanje pred javnostjo,
- namerno zavajanje znanstvene skupnosti in javnosti.

Heh, pa ti to iskreno?

Kaj pa če recimo neki podatki pokažejo, da je Janša v javnosti nepriljubljen? Kaj pa takrat trdiš? Da ne razmišljaš dvolično?
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain...
Time to die.

Bistri007 ::

Matthai:
Heh, pa ti to iskreno?

Kaj pa če recimo neki podatki pokažejo, da je Janša v javnosti nepriljubljen? Kaj pa takrat trdiš? Da ne razmišljaš dvolično?

M, vsake par let imamo volitve in takrat se pokaže priljubljenost strank oz. politikov. Ampak bolj ustrezna primerjava bi bila, če bi bili vsi raziskovalci javnega mnenja v Sloveniji pod Tošem in forsirali eno stranko.

Pri Climategate je pa drugače - tam gre za umazanije, kot so:
Climategate, as readers of these pages know, concerns some of the world's leading climate scientists working in tandem to block freedom of information requests, blackball dissenting scientists, manipulate the peer-review process, and obscure, destroy or massage inconvenient temperature data—facts[inconvenient truth :))] that were laid bare by last week's disclosure of thousands of emails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, or CRU.

Vir:
WSJ, NOVEMBER 30, 2009, 7:43 P.M. ET
Climategate: Follow the Money
Climate change researchers must believe in the reality of global warming just as a priest must believe in the existence of God.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142...


Še naprej, z zavajanjem so okoristili znanstveniki:
Consider the case of Phil Jones, the director of the CRU and the man at the heart of climategate. According to one of the documents hacked from his center, between 2000 and 2006 Mr. Jones was the recipient (or co-recipient) of some $19 million worth of research grants, a sixfold increase over what he'd been awarded in the 1990s.

Z zavajanjem, pretiravanjem in prestraševanjem se hočejo okoristiti Al Gore in njegova klapa:
And all this is only a fraction of the $94 billion that HSBC Bank estimates has been spent globally this year on what it calls "green stimulus"—largely ethanol and other alternative energy schemes—of the kind from which Al Gore and his partners at Kleiner Perkins hope to profit handsomely.
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Matthai ::

Huh, pol je zadeva podobna kot Bush in njegov naftni lobi? Upam, da bodo odgovarjali - in to oboji.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain...
Time to die.

Pyr0Beast ::

In tiste nobelove nagrade za boj proti podnebnim spremembam lahko mimogrede vrnejo.
Some nanoparticles are more equal than others

Good work: Any notion of sanity and critical thought is off-topic in this place

Bistri007 ::

Pyr0Beast, Al Gore je dobil nagrado za mir - tj. za politični aktivizem "ozaveščanja", ne za znanost.

M, naftni lobi plačuje ogromne davke. Zeleni lobi pa se hoče šlepati na račun vseh, ki uporabljamo energijo, ali kupujemo izdelke in storitve, za izdelavo in transport katerih je bila potrebna energija.

Ne vem, kaj naj bi bil Bush storil za naftni lobi: še vedno ne smejo vrtati za nafto ali plin na vzhodni ali zahodni obali ZDA, niti na Alaski (ANWR). Zadnja rafinerija, ki je bila zgrajena v ZDA, je bila zgrajena leta 1976! (Marathan Ashland's Garyville, Louisiana)
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Zgodovina sprememb…

Matthai ::

Irak seveda nima nafte. In iraška vojna na naftne dobičke ni imela nobenega vpliva.

Pajade.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain...
Time to die.

Bistri007 ::

Matthai: in katera ameriška naftna firma ima kaj prihodkov od iraške nafte?

Čitaj tole:
Iraq’s first stab at opening its oil industry to foreign investment ended in disappointment at an auction in June in which most companies declined to bid. But last month many of those same companies — including Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum, the first American companies to reach production agreements with Baghdad since the 2003 invasion — signed deals at much the same terms they rejected over the summer.

NYT, November 30, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/world...

In še to sta Exxon in Occidental dobila tako "dobre" pogoje, da sta jih najprej zavrnila... Od 2003 naprej pa so bila leta suše.

O kakšnih naftnih dobičkih zaradi iraške vojne ti govoriš, mi ni jasno. Daj prosim pojasni in podkrepi s številkami. Naftni "lobi" ustvarja nekaj koristnega za podjetja in končne potrošnike. Zeleni lobi pa hoče živeti na "socialni", ki naj jo plačujejo vsi ostali producenti energije, ki niso člani tega lobija (cap & trade in podobne potegavščine).
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

Zgodovina sprememb…

Matthai ::

Cena nafte je v zadnjih letih šla v nebo, stroški pridobivanja nafte pa so ostali praktično enaki. Nekdo je moral pokasirati razliko, ne?
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain...
Time to die.

Bistri007 ::

OK, Matthai, to je res. Ampak kakšno vezo ima to z iraško vojno? Kaj naj bi Bush sploh storil za naftni lobi, kot si napisal:
Huh, pol je zadeva podobna kot Bush in njegov naftni lobi?

Ampak z visoko ceno surove nafte so največ pokasirale ravno države proizvajalke nafte. Ob visokih cenah 2008 so večkrat zahtevale spremembo "production sharing" sporazumov, seveda v škodo velikih naftnih podjetij (oil majors). Lahko in poceni dostopnih virov nafte je čedalje manj. Če so, jih izkoriščajo nacionalne naftne družbe. Samo pri zahtevnih (in dragih) težko dostopnih virih pokličejo velike naftne družbe. Na domačem terenu pa na žalost ne morejo vrtati. Ameriški kongres je pod Bushem na žalost premalo naredil za energetsko samozadostnost ZDA (republikanska večina je bila od jan 2003 do jan 2007), drugače je moral Bush kohabitirati s sovražnim kongresom.
Največja napaka desetletja je bila narejena 4. novembra 2008
Oni so goljufali in Alah je goljufal, Alah je najboljši prevarant. (Koran 3:54)
Citiraj svetega očeta Benedikta XVI. in postani "persona rudis"...

dzinks63 ::

Prizvajalke nafte so najemale ogromne kredite, katerih sedaj ne morejo vračat. Kje so dobile kredite, si lahko mislimo. Banke bodo sedaj zahtevale zastavljeno premoženje (mogoče celo naftna polja), do katerega bodo prišle zelo poceni. To premoženje bo nazadnje končalo v čigavih rokah, v kateri državi? Torej vojna, kriza in še kaj le ni bilo tako zelo zastonj.

Gandalfar ::

vir?

BaRtMaN ::

Dubaj se zdajle po medijih vrti.

Take manipulacije s strani znanstvenikov se mi zdijo obsojanja vredne, so pa po mojem z zavajanjem povzročili tudi širšo ozaveščenost o potrebi po dolgoročno "obnovljivih" virih energije, kar je edini izhod za prekinitev odvisnosti od naftnih pridelovalcev.

Pametno (load balancing) električno omrežje pa baterije FTW! :)

AtaStrudl ::

? OK, Matthai, to je res. Ampak kakšno vezo ima to z iraško vojno?
> Kaj naj bi Bush sploh storil za naftni lobi, kot si napisal:

Bushiji so pac MISLILI da bodo pobasali irasko nafto. Posel se je iz objektivnih razlogov izpridil, ampak zato niso nic bolj nedolzni.


Zelena global warming mafija pa seveda tudi ni kaj dosti boljsa.
Recimo tele vetrnice: popolnoma nicvredna elektrika, bolj motnja v sistemu (svabom so enkrat vetrnice ze povzrocile mrk), pa tudi Co2 neutral niso, saj mora za vsak MW vetrnic biti na vrocem standbyju enako mocna klasicna elektrarna, da vskoci, ce veter neha pihat, sicer se sistem sesuje.
Ampak skozi politiko so si zrihtali subvencije... kamlu bomo najbrz vsi pri racunu za elektriko placevali se free lunch za vetrnjake...


Vredno ogleda ...

TemaSporočilaOglediZadnje sporočilo
TemaSporočilaOglediZadnje sporočilo
!

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