Gospodarska kriza 2018

A, ti se torej boriš za to, da bi Trumpa zaprli? No, saj dokler je na varnem, giljotine v resnici ne potrebujemo.

Seveda, ker je povzročil jedrsko vojno, masovno brezposelnost in sesutje svetovnih borz.

Da o RWDS niti ne govorim.

jype je 19. jun 2018 ob 21:11 izjavil:

Think of the children!

Aja, psihopati ne morete.

O, še kako mislimo na otroke.
Na une, ki jih preko odprih meja iz manj razvitih držav, pošiljajo pedofili in trgovci z blagom v EU in ZDA. Pod sponzoriranjem Demokratske stranke.

Na te mislimo. Najbolj.

Samo tega je pod Trumpom konec.

More than 2,300 pedophiles are arrested across the country after three month online hunt for sex offenders

IG report:

Spet preusmerjaš pozornost. Kaj nas sedaj hočeš prepričati da ločujejo otroke na meji, ker kao pedofili kupujejo otroke ?

Edini, ki konsistentno megliš teme si ti tukaj. Poleg tega imaš bedaste zaključke, ker ne poznaš tematike.

Tukaj nekaj zate in za yupeta.

Danes (4:05-6:05 in 11:05-18:00):

Mr.B je 19. jun 2018 ob 21:49 izjavil:

Torej moderatorji, 123. "Zali" .
Ok nic nov ko nimas argumentov.
PS : trump kot verodostojni vir.... ok gamble z avto industrijo, pa premog smo tudi obdelali, pa zelezo tudi, kaj bomo se debunkali.

Bova potem kar ostala na bedastih zaključkih. Evidentno.

Ok nic nov ko nimas argumentov.

Ti si res "special".

Evo #e vidimo trumpove twite... Kitajci so .... : General Electric gets booted from the Dow

zmaugy je 20. jun 2018 ob 08:27 izjavil:

Hecno mi je, kako si večina medijev razlaga Melanijino sporočilo kot nasprotovanje Trumpleku. Njeno sporočilo je zgolj dodatni pritisk na demokrate, da naj sprejmejo nov republikanski zakon, ki da bi bil "boljši" (ker glejte kaj se zdaj dogaja z otroci migrantov zaradi tega obstoječega fuj fuj zakona).
A se delajo, da ne razumejo?

Melani, verjetno od dneva podpisa predporočne pogodbe, ne sme nastopati v javnosti, ne da bi prej to odobril njen Mož. Ok, pustim odprto možnost, da se ji je v pričo visljenih novinarjev zareklo. Drugače pa bi rekel predstava za narod.

... se pravi, če se vsuje Dojče_Bank (Nemčija), bomo vsi v €uru nasrkali, da je joj vsaj srednjeročno ...

Spajky je 20. jun 2018 ob 21:17 izjavil:

... se pravi, če se vsuje Dojče_Bank (Nemčija), bomo vsi v €uru nasrkali, da je joj vsaj srednjeročno ...

Najbrž bo Dojče Bank hitro rabila €€€, da ostane nad vodo. Pogledali bodo, kdo so največji dolžniki. Kdor koli to je (EU podjetja, države) bo nenadoma pod pritiskom, da mora nujno "odplačati dolgove ker je prezadolžen", potem pa bo cela EU iz "solidarnosti" morala "reševati" ta podjetja in države. Ta denar bo šel takoj naslednji dan v Dojče Bank. Hkrati bo pa ECB najbrž odkupila cel kup ničvrednih papirjev od Dojče po noro precenjeni vrednosti, tako kot so centralne banke EU, US in Japonske to počele do nedavnega.

Isti recept, kot smo ga videli pri Grčiji - German report: Bailout has saved banks, not Greece

Some 95 percent of the 220 billion euros disbursed to Greece since the start of the financial crisis as loans from the bailout mechanism has been directed toward saving the European banks. That means about 210 billion euros was eventually channeled to the eurozone credit sector while just 5 percent ended up in state coffers, according to a study by the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) in Berlin.

“Europe and the International Monetary Fund have in previous years mainly saved the banks and other private creditors,” concluded the report, published yesterday in German newspaper Handelsblatt. ESMT director Jorg Rocholl told the financial newspaper that “the bailout packages mainly saved the European banks.”

Za DB bo račun kar višji. Sploh, ker imajo okoli 40 milijard EUR v finančnih derivatih. BDP cele Eurocone je okoli 15 milijard EUR.

Eno je reševanje izgub DB, drugo pa je ponovitev finančne krize. Oboje je možno. Kdo bi si mislil, da Nemci tako radi gemlajo z denarjem?

Meh, stalno imam težave s slovenskimi številkami.

Understanding Deutsche Bank's $47 Trillion Derivatives Book

Eurozone GDP $17.1 trillion

~40 biljonov € je pozicija Deutsche Bank, kaj je dejansko v teh derivatih je večinoma neznano. ~15 biljonov € je GDP Eurocone. Torej pomnoži obe številki v mojem prejšnjem postu s 1000x, razmerje in problem ostaja isti.

Verjetno cilja trumpi na splosno prepoved uvoza jekla, ker se se vedno splaca kjub tarifam, le tega uvoziti.....

Precejšnja neumnost. Eno so tarife na specifične Kitajske produkte upravičene z njihovim dumpingom cen na te produkte. Takšne je recimo EU uvedla 2016 proti Kitajski in jih tudi upravičila in letos podaljšala še za 5 let.

Drugo so pa neke divje tarife na naključne države, ki jih Trump trenutno "ne mara", čeprav se ne grejo dumpinga. Sploh, ker je bistveno manj delovnih mest v industriji proizvodnje jekla, kot pa v industriji nadaljne obdelave/uporabe jekla v produktih.

O čem ti to? Včasih se mi zdi, da namerno pišeš težko razumljive stavke... Kaj je tvoj point?

A to si napisal na začetku? OK. Anyway. Nihče ne ve, kaj se bo Trump spomnil, ampak nove tarife menda še sledijo. Sploh na EU avtomobile so napovedane. Pa že sama grožnja tarif je dovolj, da bo dosti podjetij previdnih in se ne bo zanašala na nižje (trenutne) cene uvoza izdelkov iz tujine.

Kar bi bilo načeloma OK, če ne bi bilo proti-tarif in pa če bi že prva runda Trumpovih tarif imela kakšen utemeljen razlog...

Medtem v EU:

Pozitivni trendi se nadaljujejo! Zaposlenost je na najvišji zgodovinski ravni tako v EU kot v Evroobmočju! Slovenska rast zaposlenosti nad EU povprečjem z 0.7% v zadnjem kvartalu in 3% v zadnjem letu! Nadaljujmo s soustvarjanjem uspešne družbe! Več podrobnosti - europa.eu/!XH98FP

Debunki US surrplus : The $1.4 Trillion U.S. 'Surplus' That Trump's Not Talking About

Potem : peak at 296% GDP in 2008

Gremo stavit da je tale 296% večji kot leta 2008 : The president failed to even mention "deficits" or "debt" a single time in his 5,866-word state of the Union address.

Khm...

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/10126670... ""Millennials want to buy homes, but many don't have savings. These lenders say that's no problem."

ZaphodBB je 29. jun 2018 ob 17:06 izjavil:

posatli

Preveč ste histeričen, tovariš. Pomirite se, v socializmu je prihodnost svetla.

Milenijalci so končno uspeli vzpostavit socialno pravičnost. To so dosegli s tem, da so posatli ravno tako finančno neodgovorni kot inner ghetto črnci.

Ah ja. Vedno je posameznik ki vzame slabo posojilo kriv v imenu cele generacije/skupine.

Banka, ki ima edinstveno dostop do poceni denarja s strani centralnih bank in ima politiko dati posojilo vsakomur? Nič kriva. Nobene odgovornosti. Jo je treba 100% rešiti. Konec koncev banka ne pobira obresti za posojila zato, ker z dajanjem posojil nekaj tvega, ampak zato ker je banka BOG.

$30 biljonov derivatov, ki jih ima Deutsche Bank v lasti in se lahko sesujejo kadar koli? Prokleti milenijalci so jih prisilili, da sklenejo te pogodbe!!!

The Only Stock Buyers In The First Half Were Buybacks: BofA

One week later, BofA's Client Flow monitor provides an update and finds that ahead of the earnings season blackout, buybacks by corporate clients have slowed down modestly to a six-month - in line with seasonal patterns - but YTD still remain +101% YoY and continue to suggest a record year for buybacks.

But while corporate buybacks may be fading into earnings, it is total buyback activity throughout the first half of 2018 that reveals a surprising picture. As shown in the most recent "Chart of the week" from BofA, which lays out first half sector flows, corporate clients' buybacks were the largest buyers within Financials ($10.6bn), Tech ($10.5bn), Health Care ($6.5bn), Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials.

In fact, in a dramatic display of just who has been buying tech stocks, BofA reveals that "net buying of Tech in the 1H was entirely buyback-driven."

So much for speculation that hedge funds and institutions have been chasing after tech performance: it was just tech companies - at least the subset which operates via Bank of America's buyback desk - repurchasing their own stock. And not just tech companies but financials, industrials and discretionary. Meanwhile, single stocks have been uniformly sold across all sectors with the sole exception of industrials, which is the one sector with 1H flows into single stocks by both corporate and non-corporate clients along with sector ETFs.

Ni boljšega, kot se zadolževati za to, da cena delnice ostane nespremenjena.

JPMorgan je "ugotovil", da QE pomaga bogatim (=njim) ravno malo po tem, ko se je v Ameriki QE program končal (po ~9 letih). Kakšno naključje!

JPMorgan: QE Might Have Devastating Consequences After All

Approximately 9 years after various "tin-foil" wearing blogs first warned that the long-run negative consequences of QE will drown out and vastly outnumber any positive ones (which have mostly been confined to make the rich richer and create the illusion of economic stability built on the cracking foundations of trillions in newly created dollars), none other than JPMorgan today admits that QE may, indeed, have some devastating financial, economic and political consequences. And by some, we mean a lot.

What prompted this exciting moment of monetary introspection?

According to JPM's Nick Panigirtzoglou, it was last week's report that the BoJ has expressed concerns over negative side effects of its QE current policies (especially keeping the 10Y yield fixed around 0%), and which resulted in a sharp, if brief, global bond steepening which demonstrated once again just how dominant central bank monetization policies are in determining the long-end of the curve.

And, as the market demonstrated, a hawkish policy shift and a subsequent reduction in duration absorption by the BoJ would intensify the quantitative tightening already in place by the Fed and the ECB, and according to JPM represents "a significant tail risk that has generated intense debate among our clients."

Here is a list of the key negative consequences arising from QE, from JPMorgan:

1. Results in Asset Bubbles and a Collapse in CapEx: Even as QE has likely exerted downward pressure on bond yields, the significant increase in central banks' balance sheets makes an exit potentially more difficult, and raises the risk of a policy error or of an increase in perceptions about debt monetization. It potentially creates asset bubbles by lowering asset yields relative to historical norms, that an eventual return to normality could be accompanied by sharp price declines. Perceptions about asset bubbles can thus also increase long term uncertainty. In turn higher uncertainty might prevent economic agents such as businesses from spending, i.e. the collapse in CapEx observed over the past decade as company used cheap debt to purchase their own, making management teams richer.

2. Creates Zombie Companies and Crushes Productivity. Low credit spreads and corporate bond yields are an intended consequence of QE but not without distortions. By allowing unproductive and inefficient companies to survive, helped by low debt servicing costs, QE could potentially hinder the creative destruction taking place during a normal economic cycle. In principle, QE could thus make economies less efficient or productive over time. Which should answer the long-running debate over the chronic lack of economic productivity in the new normal. The debate about so called "zombie" companies has been particularly intense in Japan given the low business turnover rate. According to OECD, Japan's business startup and closure rate is about 5%, roughly a third of that in other advanced economies with several commentators blaming the BoJ's ultra-accommodative policies for this problem.

3. Low Rates crush savers, make the rich richer. One of the most visible impacts of QE has been the decline in discount rates, which in turn has created wealth effects via supporting asset prices. However, an argument could be made that these wealth effects are not evenly distributed, and that low discount rates mean savers suffer from an erosion of income.

4. Exacerbates currency wars. QE could exacerbate so called "currency wars". The value of the Japanese yen collapsed after Abenomics started in November 2012 and has stayed at historical lows since then helped by BoJ's ultra accommodative monetary policy. This is shown in Figure 5 by the real trade weighted index of the Japanese yen. Japan's main competitors across EM and DM have been feeling the pressure from this depreciation, though it is not clear that the depreciation necessarily means the yen is undervalued.

5. NIRP hurts the economy, and chokes off credit supply. Beyond a certain threshold, negative interest rates can have unintended consequences such as lower bank profitability, higher bank lending rates, reduced credit creation to the real economy, impaired functioning of money markets and reduced liquidity in bond markets. And there is a good reason to believe that the threshold below which negative rates start having unintended consequences is higher in Japan than in Europe, not least because of the lower interest margins Japanese banks operate with... Deeply negative policy rates had taken their toll on Danish and Swiss banks' net interest income (Figure 6). Net interest income as % of assets declined in 2015 for both Danish and Swiss banks following the introduction of very negative policy rates in these countries in January 2015.

6. Chokes Repo markets due to collateral shortages. It is not only commercial banks that are hurt as a result of QE. Reduced liquidity in money and repo markets is another side effect. UST collateral shortages have hampered US repo markets. The BoJ and the ECB inflicted similar damage to European and Japanese repo markets as government collateral was withdrawn at an even stronger pace. An argument could be made that the damage to trading turnover and liquidity is likely to have been even bigger with the BoJ's and ECB's QE relative to the Fed's QE, because the BoJ and the ECB went even further than the Fed by lowering its policy rate to negative territory. Negative yields can hamper trading volumes and liquidity as money market participants are less willing to trade at negative yields.

7. Cripples pension funds by increasing funding deficits. Lower bond yields increase pension fund and insurance company deficits putting pressure on pension funds to match assets and liabilities. This pressure to move further away from equities and other high risk assets into fixed income is even stronger in countries like Japan where demographic pressures are more intense. For example, old age dependency ratios, i.e. the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over as a percentage of the population aged 15-64 years, have been rising steadily, with Japan aging more rapidly than the US or Europe (Figure 1). Generally, an aging population means that allocations are likely to shift towards relatively safer instruments as the ability to withstand larger drawdowns on capital diminishes as individuals age.

8. QE Forces consumers to save even more. The yield-to-worst on the Bloomberg Global Agg Yen denominated bond index currently stands at close to 0.15%, around one-sixth of its average in the expansion preceding the financial crisis. In addition to the effect of deleveraging after the financial crisis and the Euro area sovereign crisis, QE has played a role in pushing down on long-term yields. Particularly the QE programs of the BoJ and ECB which have seen net issuance of government bonds outside of the public sector balance sheet turn negative, not just in their domestic economies but for the G4 on aggregate (Figure 4).

9. The rise of populism and extreme political frictions. A longer-term tail risk created by QE is the potential for political frictions, which could escalate in the future especially once QE becomes a negative carry trade for central banks, i.e. when the interest on excess reserves starts rising above the yield they receive on their bond holdings.

https://twitter.com/StockTwits/status/1...

it's happening

Truga je 30. jul 2018 ob 16:24 izjavil:

https://twitter.com/StockTwits/status/1...

it's happening

Majkemi tokrat zares?

Hitro teci v klet po rdečo zastavo in vazelin.

Nekaj od tega boš ziher rabil...

ZaphodBB je 30. jul 2018 ob 16:45 izjavil:

Majkemi tokrat zares?

Zares. Saj je logično: V taki ekonomiji, kjer tisti s kapitalom že tako vse imajo, tisti brez kapitala si pa ničesar ne morejo privoščiti, ni prostora za rast.

Zares. Saj je logično: V taki ekonomiji, kjer tisti s kapitalom že tako vse imajo, tisti brez kapitala si pa ničesar ne morejo privoščiti, ni prostora za rast.

Tovariš, to nikakor ni res. To bo res šele potem, ko bo država pobrala še tisti kapital katerega so siromaki uspeli skup spraskat v 27 letih svobode.