Forum » Problemi človeštva » Iran - odštevanje
Iran - odštevanje
Temo vidijo: vsi
kunigunda ::
To si mogel nekaj pomešati - Izrael je doživel farso in prosil USA naj ustavi vojno. So zgolj agresivna čivava, ki se pogumno spravlja na sosede, ker ve, da ji amerika ščiti hrbet.
AHAHAHA.
Izrael bi lahko eliminiral Ajatolo z lahkoto. Iran je bil popolnoma razbit brez obrambe. Ampak Trump si je to malo drugače zamislil... samo nobelovo ni dobil.
Ti pa verjetno ne ves, kolk je iran velik in kok majhen del so si upal in zmogl napast. Pa se to so moral prej z droni resit.
Legon ::
Predvsem pa v vseh teh pravljicah o tem kako so sesuli Iran manjka bistvna komponeta - kaj so dosegli? Se vedno ostaja odprto enako vprasanje tudi za nove napade.
Iran ima slabih 100 mil ljudi, skupaj kakih milijon vojakov, ca 20-30 milijonov hardline islamistov, ki iz dna duse sovrazijo ZDA in Izrael, 50 let priprav na tocno ta scenari, da o velikosti in razgibanosti terena ne govorimo.
Se vedno cakam pravljicarja, da mi razlozi kaj v takih pogojih z raketami lahko dosezes.
Napad ma Hameneja ga bo spremenil v mucenika. In to je to. Clovek je skoraj 90, utopicno je pricakovat da nimajo plana B. Predvsem pa de je tudi junija, ko so obglavili kompletno vojasko vodstvo, videlo da so se v par urah sestavili nazaj.
Edini jasno viden ucinek takratne intervencije je, vecja radikalizacija in vec vojaske moci za hardlinerje. Torej ravno obratno od tega kaj pravljicarji sanjajo.
Iran ima slabih 100 mil ljudi, skupaj kakih milijon vojakov, ca 20-30 milijonov hardline islamistov, ki iz dna duse sovrazijo ZDA in Izrael, 50 let priprav na tocno ta scenari, da o velikosti in razgibanosti terena ne govorimo.
Se vedno cakam pravljicarja, da mi razlozi kaj v takih pogojih z raketami lahko dosezes.
Napad ma Hameneja ga bo spremenil v mucenika. In to je to. Clovek je skoraj 90, utopicno je pricakovat da nimajo plana B. Predvsem pa de je tudi junija, ko so obglavili kompletno vojasko vodstvo, videlo da so se v par urah sestavili nazaj.
Edini jasno viden ucinek takratne intervencije je, vecja radikalizacija in vec vojaske moci za hardlinerje. Torej ravno obratno od tega kaj pravljicarji sanjajo.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
Poldi112 ::
Tokratna eskalacija bi bila faktor 2x proti Iranu glede letalskih napadov, če bi se pridružile še ZDA, + tomahavki.
To so osnove algebre, množenje z (dva+nekaj) ali pa X + X + Y.
Ne spremeni dejstva, da bi ameriške baze gorele, medtem ko si blokade Hormuške ožine zahod ne more privoščiti.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Stane2 ::
Ti pa verjetno ne ves, kolk je iran velik in kok majhen del so si upal in zmogl napast. Pa se to so moral prej z droni resit.
Oh, Iran je manjši v realnem GDPju kot pa Izrael:
https://www.worlddata.info/country-comp...
IRAN: 475,252 M US$
ISR: 540,380 M US$
PS: Pajac, a še vedno gobcaš o tistih dronih? Nimaš kaj narest proti F-35, navadi se že.
Ne spremeni dejstva, da bi ameriške baze gorele, medtem ko si blokade Hormuške ožine zahod ne more privoščiti.
Bomo mi še videli, kako bodo "gorele".
Predvsem pa v vseh teh pravljicah o tem kako so sesuli Iran manjka bistvna komponeta - kaj so dosegli? Se vedno ostaja odprto enako vprasanje tudi za nove napade.
Iran ima slabih 100 mil ljudi, skupaj kakih milijon vojakov, ca 20-30 milijonov hardline islamistov, ki iz dna duse sovrazijo ZDA in Izrael, 50 let priprav na tocno ta scenari, da o velikosti in razgibanosti terena ne govorimo.
Se vedno cakam pravljicarja, da mi razlozi kaj v takih pogojih z raketami lahko dosezes.
Napad ma Hameneja ga bo spremenil v mucenika. In to je to. Clovek je skoraj 90, utopicno je pricakovat da nimajo plana B. Predvsem pa de je tudi junija, ko so obglavili kompletno vojasko vodstvo, videlo da so se v par urah sestavili nazaj.
Že spet bedarije poetičarja, ki ćiča v naslonjaču sredi Evrope in edini in samo on ve kaj se dogaja v Iranu.
Kako točno so se "sestavili nazaj? SO ENAKO (NE)SPOSOBNI KOT SO BILI PREJ.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Stane2 ()
enavlaka ::
Nad Teheranom so letala izraelska letala, NE OBRATNO.
Nad Tel-Avivom so letele Iranske rakete, ki so prebile njihovo obrambo in protiraketni ščit.
Iranci so v enem dnevu pokazali, da se Izrael ni zmožen obraniti pred njihovimi napadi.
MadMen ::
Predvsem pa v vseh teh pravljicah o tem kako so sesuli Iran manjka bistvna komponeta - kaj so dosegli? Se vedno ostaja odprto enako vprasanje tudi za nove napade.
Iran ima slabih 100 mil ljudi, skupaj kakih milijon vojakov, ca 20-30 milijonov hardline islamistov, ki iz dna duse sovrazijo ZDA in Izrael, 50 let priprav na tocno ta scenari, da o velikosti in razgibanosti terena ne govorimo.
Se vedno cakam pravljicarja, da mi razlozi kaj v takih pogojih z raketami lahko dosezes.
Napad ma Hameneja ga bo spremenil v mucenika. In to je to. Clovek je skoraj 90, utopicno je pricakovat da nimajo plana B. Predvsem pa de je tudi junija, ko so obglavili kompletno vojasko vodstvo, videlo da so se v par urah sestavili nazaj.
Edini jasno viden ucinek takratne intervencije je, vecja radikalizacija in vec vojaske moci za hardlinerje. Torej ravno obratno od tega kaj pravljicarji sanjajo.
Iran ni tako homogen, kot si tukaj nekateri predstavljate. Iran je že nekaj časa sankcioniran, kar pa je ustvarilo določene zelo bogate "družine", ki imajo povezave z IRCG ter pomagajo režimu pri obvodu teh sankcij.
Poanta je, ko bo prišlo do situacije palca ali korenček se zna marsikaj spremeniti. Mogoče v kratkem vidimo naše hipoteze na delu.
MadMen ::
Nad Teheranom so letala izraelska letala, NE OBRATNO.
Nad Tel-Avivom so letele Iranske rakete, ki so prebile njihovo obrambo in protiraketni ščit.
Iranci so v enem dnevu pokazali, da se Izrael ni zmožen obraniti pred njihovimi napadi.
Absolutne zaščite pred veliko množico raket ni, zračna nadvlada Izraela pa pomeni da lahko počnejo kar hočejo, Iran vrnejo v kamneno dobo in Iran čisto nič ne more. Če se pridruži še ZDA bo še večja veselica, seveda pa to ne pomeni še konec trenutnega režima v Iranu.
Poldi112 ::
Kako to misliš, čisto nič ne more? Lahko naredi ogromno škodo Izraelu, z blokado Hormuške ožine pa ohromi zahodno gospodarstvo.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Goran10 ::
Za menjavo režima se potrebuje kopenska invazija ali pa sesutje glavnega vira prihodka Irana in morska blokada ampak to ne bo poceni.
Po moje je čas da Trumpo in Izraelci priznajo delni poraz in se raje osredotočijo na obrambo Izraela z jedrskim odvračalom.
Po moje je čas da Trumpo in Izraelci priznajo delni poraz in se raje osredotočijo na obrambo Izraela z jedrskim odvračalom.
Poldi112 ::
Tako Izrael kot USA že imata jedrsko orožje, tako da ne vem, na kaj se boš tu lahko še koncentriral?
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Stane2 ::
Nad Tel-Avivom so letele Iranske rakete, ki so prebile njihovo obrambo in protiraketni ščit.
Pa kaj pol? Hezbolah je prebijal ščit na tedenski bazi.
Iranci so v enem dnevu pokazali, da se Izrael ni zmožen obraniti pred njihovimi napadi.
Iranski napadi so "spray and pray". Praktično nobenega cilja ne morejo zadet. Samo upajo, da bodo povzročili škodo. Obupen price/performance, ki Irance stane ogromno.
Lahko naredi ogromno škodo Izraelu
Na tvojo žalost ne more narest "ogromno škode" Izraelu. Tiste iranske rakete nosijo toliko ekploziva kot 0.5-1.0 tonske bombe. To vse skupaj ni ništa, da ne govorimo koliko takšna raketa obubožane Irance stane.
Izraelci so na majhno Gazo v zadnjih dveh letih odvrgli med 70-100 tisoč ton eksploziva.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Stane2 ()
Poldi112 ::
Leta 2019 so kar lepo demonstrirali, kako lahko natančno zadanejo ključno infrastrukturo:
Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais attack @ Wikipedia
In če njihove rakete ne bi odvračale, bi nepreestano deževalo po njih - tako kot dežuje po Gazi...
Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais attack @ Wikipedia
In če njihove rakete ne bi odvračale, bi nepreestano deževalo po njih - tako kot dežuje po Gazi...
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Jarno ::
Iranske rakete so tako-tako, zračna premoč dovoljuje tudi sesuvanje lanserjev in bombardiranje skladiščnih tunelov.
Eno tako rundo so že imeli s Saddamovimi scudi, tokrat pa imajo boljši nadzor zaradi dronov.
Ključno vprašanje je, kaj bi lahko bil povod za eskalacijo, morda bodo ohranili hladne glave glede iranskega jederskega programa tudi mule.
Eno tako rundo so že imeli s Saddamovimi scudi, tokrat pa imajo boljši nadzor zaradi dronov.
Ključno vprašanje je, kaj bi lahko bil povod za eskalacijo, morda bodo ohranili hladne glave glede iranskega jederskega programa tudi mule.
Chuck Norris je med števili 0.999... in 1 uspel vriniti konstanto imenovano CN.
#65W!
#65W!
Legon ::
Ti pa verjetno ne ves, kolk je iran velik in kok majhen del so si upal in zmogl napast. Pa se to so moral prej z droni resit.
Oh, Iran je manjši v realnem GDPju kot pa Izrael:
https://www.worlddata.info/country-comp...
IRAN: 475,252 M US$
ISR: 540,380 M US$
PS: Pajac, a še vedno gobcaš o tistih dronih? Nimaš kaj narest proti F-35, navadi se že.
Ne spremeni dejstva, da bi ameriške baze gorele, medtem ko si blokade Hormuške ožine zahod ne more privoščiti.
Bomo mi še videli, kako bodo "gorele".
Predvsem pa v vseh teh pravljicah o tem kako so sesuli Iran manjka bistvna komponeta - kaj so dosegli? Se vedno ostaja odprto enako vprasanje tudi za nove napade.
Iran ima slabih 100 mil ljudi, skupaj kakih milijon vojakov, ca 20-30 milijonov hardline islamistov, ki iz dna duse sovrazijo ZDA in Izrael, 50 let priprav na tocno ta scenari, da o velikosti in razgibanosti terena ne govorimo.
Se vedno cakam pravljicarja, da mi razlozi kaj v takih pogojih z raketami lahko dosezes.
Napad ma Hameneja ga bo spremenil v mucenika. In to je to. Clovek je skoraj 90, utopicno je pricakovat da nimajo plana B. Predvsem pa de je tudi junija, ko so obglavili kompletno vojasko vodstvo, videlo da so se v par urah sestavili nazaj.
Že spet bedarije poetičarja, ki ćiča v naslonjaču sredi Evrope in edini in samo on ve kaj se dogaja v Iranu.
Kako točno so se "sestavili nazaj? SO ENAKO (NE)SPOSOBNI KOT SO BILI PREJ.
Rofl, to pa si se enkrat argumentirano dokazal, da drugega kot sirit propagande za pingo sok nisi sposoben. Bogi.
Goran10 ::
Tako Izrael kot USA že imata jedrsko orožje, tako da ne vem, na kaj se boš tu lahko še koncentriral?
Recimo pod jedrsko doktrino spraviš tudi raznorazne salami tehnike v obliki teroristićnih napadov in provokacij tudi s strani iranskih proxijev potem naj pa islamo fašisti kalkulirajo če se jim izplača.
Ampak kot videno že povsod Trumpova administracija težko drži koncentracijo in oblikuje neko odločno in jasno zunanjo politiko glede vsega in se samo vrti v krogu provokacij, carinskih groženj in taco gibov. Naj se že dokončno izjasnijo glede Irana.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Goran10 ()
Stane2 ::
Goran10 ::
Naj da Trump na mizo deal kjer se Iran odpove jedrskemu orožju v zameno pa Iran dobi otipljive garancije da se bo režim obdržal. Ker za to se gre v samem temelju.
Stane2 ::
Leta 2019 so kar lepo demonstrirali, kako lahko natančno zadanejo ključno infrastrukturo:
Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais attack @ Wikipedia
Irelevantno. Lani so dokazali nasprotno. Velik medijskega pompa, malo škode. Izraleci jim po drugi strani skinejo lahko vse njihove elektrarne. Pač tko je, če imaš letala nad tujim ozemljem in te bombe stanejo le drobtinico kot Irance njihove rakete.
In če njihove rakete ne bi odvračale, bi nepreestano deževalo po njih - tako kot dežuje po Gazi...
Ne, ne bi.
Goran10 ::
Po moje se zda in izrael najbolj bojijo dviga cen nafte če bi šli do konca v smislu zraćnih napadov pa da jim menjava režima kljub temu ne uspe.
Poldi112 ::
Tako Izrael kot USA že imata jedrsko orožje, tako da ne vem, na kaj se boš tu lahko še koncentriral?
Recimo pod jedrsko doktrino spraviš tudi raznorazne salami tehnike v obliki teroristićnih napadov in provokacij tudi s strani iranskih proxijev
Se pravi želiš normalizirati upravičenost proaktivnega jedrskega udara na države, ki sodelujejo v proxy vojni? Ne boš s tem zgolj upravičil preventivni jedrski napad rusije na recimo nemčijo?
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Legon ::
Poldi112 ::
In če dejansko nukaš Iran, jih ne boš s tem zgolj prisilil v razvoj jedrskega orožja? Boš s tem zvišal varnost Izraela?
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: Poldi112 ()
shmandi ::
Res je. Prihajajo čedalje večje številke o ubitih protestnikih...
There are obviously no official statistics, but from what he knew he was absolutely sure the number of 12,000 deaths is very low. His own estimate, based on everything he's gathered internally, is 30,000 at the very least. He said Rasht alone had around 2,000 deaths, and larger cities like Tehran, Mashhad, Shiraz and Esfahan even higher numbers. Those "body bag videos" were no more than a drop in the ocean
https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/commen...
kaj ima to veze s pravljicami o kemičnem orožju, ki se ga je podtikalo tudi Assadu z namenom, da se Obamo prisili v bombardiranje?
Ker seveda Iranci pa tega ne bi...
Talked to one of my friends the past several days(still haven't heard from others) and he estimates 50k fatalities.
Wounded protesters were executed in hospitals and medical staff arrested. Chemical weapons used(he says a mix of CS gas and "lethal") and groups being herded into dead ends and murdered.
Številke še seveda naraščajo...
https://humanrightsintl.com/2026/01/20/...
According to eyewitnesses, even after protesters were dispersed by gunfire and sought refuge in their own homes or the homes of others, security forces continued to pursue and shoot at them, actions that in many cases resulted in direct killings. In one documented case, an eyewitness reported that snipers targeted and killed five members of a family on the rooftop of their home in Karaj.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: shmandi ()
Goran10 ::
Tako Izrael kot USA že imata jedrsko orožje, tako da ne vem, na kaj se boš tu lahko še koncentriral?
Recimo pod jedrsko doktrino spraviš tudi raznorazne salami tehnike v obliki teroristićnih napadov in provokacij tudi s strani iranskih proxijev
Se pravi želiš normalizirati upravičenost proaktivnega jedrskega udara na države, ki sodelujejo v proxy vojni? Ne boš s tem zgolj upravičil preventivni jedrski napad rusije na recimo nemčijo?
Lej ne vem potem naj se pa z Iranom nekaj dogovorijo kar bo odgovarjalo vsem. Ali pa naj se naprej vrtijo v krogu.
Poldi112 ::
To ni mogoče, ker suverenost Irana ni združljiva z zahtevo Izraela po dominaciji regije.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Chalky ::
Za ZDA je najbolj pomembno da dobijo dostop do Perzijskega zaliva ter Hormuške ožine, ker potem imajo na obeh straneh popolno prevlado. To je možno samo če Pahlavi pride na oblast saj bi jim omogočil vojaške baze v državi vključno z pristanišči, v zameno za varnost in vzpostavljanje miru v Iranu po padcu režima.
Legon ::
A spet smo pri Clown Pincu? Zakaj bi menjali eno diktaturo za drugo? A ni point v svobodi in demokraciji?
Poldi112 ::
V zameno za varnost - mafia style? Pustite, da vam ponovno nastavimo našega diktatorja, proti kateremu ste enkrat že naredili revolucijo, pa vas bomo prenehali bombardirati?
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
kunigunda ::
Nad Tel-Avivom so letele Iranske rakete, ki so prebile njihovo obrambo in protiraketni ščit.
Pa kaj pol? Hezbolah je prebijal ščit na tedenski bazi.
Iranci so v enem dnevu pokazali, da se Izrael ni zmožen obraniti pred njihovimi napadi.
Iranski napadi so "spray and pray". Praktično nobenega cilja ne morejo zadet. Samo upajo, da bodo povzročili škodo. Obupen price/performance, ki Irance stane ogromno.
Lahko naredi ogromno škodo Izraelu
Na tvojo žalost ne more narest "ogromno škode" Izraelu. Tiste iranske rakete nosijo toliko ekploziva kot 0.5-1.0 tonske bombe. To vse skupaj ni ništa, da ne govorimo koliko takšna raketa obubožane Irance stane.
Izraelci so na majhno Gazo v zadnjih dveh letih odvrgli med 70-100 tisoč ton eksploziva.
Irance ki nardijo do 200 raket mesecno stane taka raketa 10x manj kot jo izrael al pa usa nardijo. Pa niti srednje mocnih niso uporabili.
Skodo so pa tud dobro nardil, ne bi izrael prosu za premirje drgac...
Stane2 ::
Irance ki nardijo do 200 raket mesecno stane taka raketa 10x manj kot jo izrael al pa usa nardijo. Pa niti srednje mocnih niso uporabili.
Pojma nimaš koliko raket naredijo in koliko jih stanejo.
Je pa dejstvo, da so zmetali na stotine miljard v orožje namesto v razvoj in dobrobitje prebivalcev. Zato pa imajo gospodarstvo v pizdi.
Skodo so pa tud dobro nardil, ne bi izrael prosu za premirje drgac...
Ma ne nabijaj. Že to, da je kakšna raketa pristala kje v Izraelu je bila "velika zmaga". Vse to iransko sranje je komplet nenatančno.
Poldi112 ::
Ne kolega, gospodarstvo imajo v riti, ker so žrtev brutalnih zahodnih sankcij, ker se ne želijo podretiti imperiju.
V orožje pa so primorani vlagati, ker je to edini način, da ohranijo suverenost.
Še kar pa ponavljate pravljice o nenatančnosti iranskih raket, navkljub demonstraciji tehnologije pred 6 leti:
Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais attack @ Wikipedia
Nam lahko razložte, kako so lahko z nenatančnimi raketami tako natančno zadeli cilje?
V orožje pa so primorani vlagati, ker je to edini način, da ohranijo suverenost.
Še kar pa ponavljate pravljice o nenatančnosti iranskih raket, navkljub demonstraciji tehnologije pred 6 leti:
Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais attack @ Wikipedia
Nam lahko razložte, kako so lahko z nenatančnimi raketami tako natančno zadeli cilje?
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Legon ::
Irance ki nardijo do 200 raket mesecno stane taka raketa 10x manj kot jo izrael al pa usa nardijo. Pa niti srednje mocnih niso uporabili.
Pojma nimaš koliko raket naredijo in koliko jih stanejo.
Je pa dejstvo, da so zmetali na stotine miljard v orožje namesto v razvoj in dobrobitje prebivalcev. Zato pa imajo gospodarstvo v pizdi.
Skodo so pa tud dobro nardil, ne bi izrael prosu za premirje drgac...
Ma ne nabijaj. Že to, da je kakšna raketa pristala kje v Izraelu je bila "velika zmaga". Vse to iransko sranje je komplet nenatančno.
Če uporabim argumetcijo dežurnega debila in zbiralca pingo sokca: Pojma nimaš kje je kakšna raketa pristala in kako natančne so Iranske balistične rakete.
Zdaj pa hitro nazaj brezvezne linke iz X limat.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
IgorCardanof ::
Res je. Prihajajo čedalje večje številke o ubitih protestnikih...
There are obviously no official statistics, but from what he knew he was absolutely sure the number of 12,000 deaths is very low. His own estimate, based on everything he's gathered internally, is 30,000 at the very least. He said Rasht alone had around 2,000 deaths, and larger cities like Tehran, Mashhad, Shiraz and Esfahan even higher numbers. Those "body bag videos" were no more than a drop in the ocean
https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/commen...
kaj ima to veze s pravljicami o kemičnem orožju, ki se ga je podtikalo tudi Assadu z namenom, da se Obamo prisili v bombardiranje?
Ker seveda Iranci pa tega ne bi...
Talked to one of my friends the past several days(still haven't heard from others) and he estimates 50k fatalities.
Wounded protesters were executed in hospitals and medical staff arrested. Chemical weapons used(he says a mix of CS gas and "lethal") and groups being herded into dead ends and murdered.
Številke še seveda naraščajo...
https://humanrightsintl.com/2026/01/20/...
According to eyewitnesses, even after protesters were dispersed by gunfire and sought refuge in their own homes or the homes of others, security forces continued to pursue and shoot at them, actions that in many cases resulted in direct killings. In one documented case, an eyewitness reported that snipers targeted and killed five members of a family on the rooftop of their home in Karaj.
Baje naj bi od jutri naprej delal internet v Iranu. Ampak predvidevam da se to ne bo zgodilo. Ker če se, mislim da bomo hitro dobili na stotine posnetkov pobijanj.
Retail investor, Simp, Crypto analyst, Cardano hejtr
Ne odgovarjam na DM.
Ne odgovarjam na DM.
Goran10 ::
Za ZDA je najbolj pomembno da dobijo dostop do Perzijskega zaliva ter Hormuške ožine, ker potem imajo na obeh straneh popolno prevlado. To je možno samo če Pahlavi pride na oblast saj bi jim omogočil vojaške baze v državi vključno z pristanišči, v zameno za varnost in vzpostavljanje miru v Iranu po padcu režima.
Pahlavija bodo pa dostavili kako? Aja Trump bo nabil carine vsem ki trgujejo z Iranom vauv res briljanten plan.
Stane2 ::
Ne kolega, gospodarstvo imajo v riti, ker so žrtev brutalnih zahodnih sankcij, ker se ne želijo podretiti imperiju.
Ne kolega. Gospodarstvo imajo v pizdi točno zaradi tega, kar sem napisal. Če ne bi razvijali nuklearnega orožja, tudi sankcij ne bi imeli.
Še kar pa ponavljate pravljice o nenatančnosti iranskih raket, navkljub demonstraciji tehnologije pred 6 leti:
Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais attack @ Wikipedia
Ciljati nekaj, kar je 100km stran, je čisto nekaj drugega kot ciljati nekaj kar je 1000km stran.
Nam lahko razložte, kako so lahko z nenatančnimi raketami tako natančno zadeli cilje?
Zakaj bi moral razlagati nekaj, kar vsi vemo, da ni res in je kompletna bedarija.
Če uporabim argumetcijo dežurnega debila in zbiralca pingo sokca: Pojma nimaš kje je kakšna raketa pristala in kako natančne so Iranske balistične rakete.
Zdaj pa hitro nazaj brezvezne linke iz X limat.
Če uporabim argumetcijo dežurnega debila in zbiralca pingo sokca: Pojma nimaš kje je kakšna raketa pristala in kako natančne so Iranske balistične rakete. Zdaj pa hitro nazaj brezvezne linke iz X limat.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Stane2 ()
Legon ::
IgorCardanof je izjavil:
Res je. Prihajajo čedalje večje številke o ubitih protestnikih...
There are obviously no official statistics, but from what he knew he was absolutely sure the number of 12,000 deaths is very low. His own estimate, based on everything he's gathered internally, is 30,000 at the very least. He said Rasht alone had around 2,000 deaths, and larger cities like Tehran, Mashhad, Shiraz and Esfahan even higher numbers. Those "body bag videos" were no more than a drop in the ocean
https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/commen...
kaj ima to veze s pravljicami o kemičnem orožju, ki se ga je podtikalo tudi Assadu z namenom, da se Obamo prisili v bombardiranje?
Ker seveda Iranci pa tega ne bi...
Talked to one of my friends the past several days(still haven't heard from others) and he estimates 50k fatalities.
Wounded protesters were executed in hospitals and medical staff arrested. Chemical weapons used(he says a mix of CS gas and "lethal") and groups being herded into dead ends and murdered.
Številke še seveda naraščajo...
https://humanrightsintl.com/2026/01/20/...
According to eyewitnesses, even after protesters were dispersed by gunfire and sought refuge in their own homes or the homes of others, security forces continued to pursue and shoot at them, actions that in many cases resulted in direct killings. In one documented case, an eyewitness reported that snipers targeted and killed five members of a family on the rooftop of their home in Karaj.
Baje naj bi od jutri naprej delal internet v Iranu. Ampak predvidevam da se to ne bo zgodilo. Ker če se, mislim da bomo hitro dobili na stotine posnetkov pobijanj.
Najprej bos moral definirat kaj pomeni, da internet dela. Ker od vceraj, odvisno od mobilnega ponudnika so zaceli delovat doloceni VPN. Dostop do lokalnih spletnih strani je delal ves cas. Po drugi strani pa je veliko blokiranega za 20 let.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
Poldi112 ::
Ne kolega. Gospodarstvo imajo v pizdi točno zaradi tega, kar sem napisal. Če ne bi razvijali nuklearnega orožja, tudi sankcij ne bi imeli.
Saj ga ne, in imeli smo jedrski sporazum z njimi, ki je to zagotavljal, pa ga je Trump enostransko prekinil in jim nabil sankcije.
Ciljati nekaj, kar je 100km stran, je čisto nekaj drugega kot ciljati nekaj kar je 1000km stran.
Ja? Navigacija drugače dela, če mora do cilja leteti 1000km, kot če leti zgolj 100km?
Nam lahko razložte, kako so lahko z nenatančnimi raketami tako natančno zadeli cilje?
Zakaj bi moral razlagati nekaj, kar vsi vemo, da ni res in je kompletna bedarija.
To mogoče "veste" vi, problem je pa le v tem, da primeri predhodnih demonstracij to vaše prepričanje kar konkretno izpodbijajo.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.
Stane2 ::
Saj ga ne, in imeli smo jedrski sporazum z njimi, ki je to zagotavljal, pa ga je Trump enostransko prekinil in jim nabil sankcije.
Obamin sporazum je bil slab in praktično ni prekinil razvoja iranskega nuklearnega orožja.
Ja? Navigacija drugače dela, če mora do cilja leteti 1000km, kot če leti zgolj 100km?
Za 100+km imaš na voljo izvozne sovjetske/ruske variante ala BM-30 Smerch - znano je da so iranci reverse ingeneerali take in podobne sisteme. Za 1000+km pa ne moreš tega kopirat.
To mogoče "veste" vi, problem je pa le v tem, da primeri predhodnih demonstracij to vaše prepričanje kar konkretno izpodbijajo.
Če je zate uspeh, da so iranske rakete zadele pol miljonski Tel Aviv in se zabile v neko ulico ali stavbo, potem pa tudi ok. Vidim, da imaš nizke standarde.
Goran10 ::
Mosab Hassan Yousef sicer hardcore ideološki nasprotnik Islamo fašizma in zagovornik Izraela vseeno trezno opozarja na izjemno kompleksnost in visoko ceno morebitnega vojaškega posredovanja v Iranu. Čeprav bi ZDA s svojo zračno in pomorsko premočjo zlahka uničile vojaške cilje, bi to sprožilo verižno reakcijo s katastrofalnimi posledicami.
https://x.com/MosabHasanYOSEF/status/20...
Before the button--here is the folder.
This is the real briefing any president gets before authorizing action against Iran.
Military strength
Iran fields 610,000 active-duty troops, 190,000 IRGC, and up to 450,000 mobilizable Basij--forces totaling over one million. American air and naval dominance would overwhelm in open battle, but these fighters are dug in, ideological, and prepared to inflict death on Iranian civilians and civilians throughout the region.
Their crackdown on protesters has shown their willingness to hold an entire population hostage and shift guilt onto the United States for the harm. Such forces are ready to kill millions of Iranians and set the region on fire before surrendering power.
Airstrikes alone cannot eliminate their threat; boots on the ground would be required, leading to years of brutal urban fighting similar to Fallujah, Khan Yunis, and Afghanistan. Fragmentation into insurgencies could mirror Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. This mission could cost trillions and unlimited troop casualties without any guarantee of success.
Missiles
Thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles can reach U.S. bases in Qatar (Al-Udeid), Bahrain, Kuwait, and Israel. Iran demonstrated this capability in 2020 (180 projectiles on Al-Asad, causing traumatic brain injuries) and again in June 2025 (missiles on Al-Udeid). They don't need overwhelming salvos--just persistent, low-intensity harassment to drain resources and political will.
Prolonged conflict risk
Iran can sustain retaliation through proxies and occasional strikes, mirroring Yemen's slow-drain strategy. Each incident costs the U.S. heavily in defense, deployment, and political capital while allies and domestic support erode over months or years.
Strait of Hormuz
20 million barrels of oil per day--20% of global supply--transit this chokepoint. Iran has mined it historically and rehearsed disruptions in drills. Mines persist for years; full clearance takes months to years, posing a severe threat to global trade and the economy.
Allies
Gulf hosts (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) remain vulnerable; past attacks halved Saudi output temporarily. Retaliation risks base access revocation. Destruction of oil fields could take years to extinguish fires, with enormous restoration costs.
Russia and China watch closely; it is in their interest to prolong the conflict in the shadows, bleeding the United States slowly toward a humiliating defeat by fanning the flames.
Day after
Leadership removal triggers a prepared succession. Loyal forces and Basij (deeply embedded in communities) won't disband--they fragment and settle scores. Millions of potential refugees emerge; no coalition exists for long-term occupation or reconstruction. Iran's armed forces pose the greatest threat to any regime replacement--they could assassinate new leadership and destabilize security to block a successful power transition.
U.S. constraints
40,000-50,000 troops in theater, all within range. Congress and the public oppose open-ended wars amid domestic priorities. An economic meltdown from oil shocks and anti-war movements--especially in a prolonged conflict--would trigger rapid political fallout.
Bottom line
Military success against command targets is achievable. The real cost lies in the chain reaction: economic pain, regional instability, and the risk of empowering hardliners if the job remains unfinished. That's the delay you see--not indecision, but sober calculation for 90 million lives.
Airstrikes will be celebrated like fireworks, and later everyone will suffer the hangover.
Defeating the Islamic Republic requires unprecedented measures. Mossad and CIA may have surprises in preparation, but these operations demand time and patience. Those eager to celebrate should take a chill pill and wait.
https://x.com/MosabHasanYOSEF/status/20...
Before the button--here is the folder.
This is the real briefing any president gets before authorizing action against Iran.
Military strength
Iran fields 610,000 active-duty troops, 190,000 IRGC, and up to 450,000 mobilizable Basij--forces totaling over one million. American air and naval dominance would overwhelm in open battle, but these fighters are dug in, ideological, and prepared to inflict death on Iranian civilians and civilians throughout the region.
Their crackdown on protesters has shown their willingness to hold an entire population hostage and shift guilt onto the United States for the harm. Such forces are ready to kill millions of Iranians and set the region on fire before surrendering power.
Airstrikes alone cannot eliminate their threat; boots on the ground would be required, leading to years of brutal urban fighting similar to Fallujah, Khan Yunis, and Afghanistan. Fragmentation into insurgencies could mirror Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. This mission could cost trillions and unlimited troop casualties without any guarantee of success.
Missiles
Thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles can reach U.S. bases in Qatar (Al-Udeid), Bahrain, Kuwait, and Israel. Iran demonstrated this capability in 2020 (180 projectiles on Al-Asad, causing traumatic brain injuries) and again in June 2025 (missiles on Al-Udeid). They don't need overwhelming salvos--just persistent, low-intensity harassment to drain resources and political will.
Prolonged conflict risk
Iran can sustain retaliation through proxies and occasional strikes, mirroring Yemen's slow-drain strategy. Each incident costs the U.S. heavily in defense, deployment, and political capital while allies and domestic support erode over months or years.
Strait of Hormuz
20 million barrels of oil per day--20% of global supply--transit this chokepoint. Iran has mined it historically and rehearsed disruptions in drills. Mines persist for years; full clearance takes months to years, posing a severe threat to global trade and the economy.
Allies
Gulf hosts (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) remain vulnerable; past attacks halved Saudi output temporarily. Retaliation risks base access revocation. Destruction of oil fields could take years to extinguish fires, with enormous restoration costs.
Russia and China watch closely; it is in their interest to prolong the conflict in the shadows, bleeding the United States slowly toward a humiliating defeat by fanning the flames.
Day after
Leadership removal triggers a prepared succession. Loyal forces and Basij (deeply embedded in communities) won't disband--they fragment and settle scores. Millions of potential refugees emerge; no coalition exists for long-term occupation or reconstruction. Iran's armed forces pose the greatest threat to any regime replacement--they could assassinate new leadership and destabilize security to block a successful power transition.
U.S. constraints
40,000-50,000 troops in theater, all within range. Congress and the public oppose open-ended wars amid domestic priorities. An economic meltdown from oil shocks and anti-war movements--especially in a prolonged conflict--would trigger rapid political fallout.
Bottom line
Military success against command targets is achievable. The real cost lies in the chain reaction: economic pain, regional instability, and the risk of empowering hardliners if the job remains unfinished. That's the delay you see--not indecision, but sober calculation for 90 million lives.
Airstrikes will be celebrated like fireworks, and later everyone will suffer the hangover.
Defeating the Islamic Republic requires unprecedented measures. Mossad and CIA may have surprises in preparation, but these operations demand time and patience. Those eager to celebrate should take a chill pill and wait.
Legon ::
Spot on analiza. Tudi v zaključku. Dejansko, če nimajo nekega neslutenega asa v rokavu, z raketami tega režima ne bodo odpravili. Ravno obratno, z vsakim netegom, ki so ga deležni so bolj radikalni in hardline glasovi dobivajo moč. Izvolitev Pezeškinana je bila IMO zadnji poskus normalizacije odnosov in so za uvodno nagrado dobili atentant na Hanijo dobesedno na dan inavguracije. Od tam naprej so odnosi v prostem padu.
ja, to debilni prodajlci pingo soka radi prodajajo, brez da bi razumeli kaj vse je bilo potrebno da je do sporazuma prišlo in kakšne je imel dejanske učinke. Še posebej na politično klimo in gospodarstvo v državi. Odločitev Trumpa, da izstopi je odličen odraz tega kako slabo zahod razume Perzijsko mentaliteto. Preberi si kaj o ta'arof, da se ne boš še naprej tako bizarno smešil.
Obamin sporazum je bil slab in praktično ni prekinil razvoja iranskega nuklearnega orožja.
ja, to debilni prodajlci pingo soka radi prodajajo, brez da bi razumeli kaj vse je bilo potrebno da je do sporazuma prišlo in kakšne je imel dejanske učinke. Še posebej na politično klimo in gospodarstvo v državi. Odločitev Trumpa, da izstopi je odličen odraz tega kako slabo zahod razume Perzijsko mentaliteto. Preberi si kaj o ta'arof, da se ne boš še naprej tako bizarno smešil.
Stane2 ::
ja, to debilni prodajlci pingo soka radi prodajajo, brez da bi razumeli kaj vse je bilo potrebno da je do sporazuma prišlo in kakšne je imel dejanske učinke. Še posebej na politično klimo in gospodarstvo v državi. Odločitev Trumpa, da izstopi je odličen odraz tega kako slabo zahod razume Perzijsko mentaliteto. Preberi si kaj o ta'arof, da se ne boš še naprej tako bizarno smešil.
ja, to debilni prodajlci pingo soka radi prodajajo, brez da bi razumeli kaj vse je bilo potrebno da je do sporazuma prišlo in kakšne je imel dejanske učinke. Preberi si kaj o ta'arof, da se ne boš še naprej tako bizarno smešil.
"did Obamas Iran deal brake iranian development of nuclear weapons?"
GROK:
No, the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal (formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, signed in 2015) did not "break" or permanently halt Iran's development of nuclear weapons
Stane2 ::
Mosab Hassan Yousef sicer hardcore ideološki nasprotnik Islamo fašizma in zagovornik Izraela vseeno trezno opozarja na izjemno kompleksnost in visoko ceno morebitnega vojaškega posredovanja v Iranu. Čeprav bi ZDA s svojo zračno in pomorsko premočjo zlahka uničile vojaške cilje, bi to sprožilo verižno reakcijo s katastrofalnimi posledicami. .
Kakorkoli obračaš, Iran je trenutno najbolj ranljiv v zadnjih 20-30-ih letih.
Legon ::
ja, to debilni prodajlci pingo soka radi prodajajo, brez da bi razumeli kaj vse je bilo potrebno da je do sporazuma prišlo in kakšne je imel dejanske učinke. Še posebej na politično klimo in gospodarstvo v državi. Odločitev Trumpa, da izstopi je odličen odraz tega kako slabo zahod razume Perzijsko mentaliteto. Preberi si kaj o ta'arof, da se ne boš še naprej tako bizarno smešil.
ja, to debilni prodajlci pingo soka radi prodajajo, brez da bi razumeli kaj vse je bilo potrebno da je do sporazuma prišlo in kakšne je imel dejanske učinke. Preberi si kaj o ta'arof, da se ne boš še naprej tako bizarno smešil.
"did Obamas Iran deal brake iranian development of nuclear weapons?"
GROK:
No, the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal (formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, signed in 2015) did not "break" or permanently halt Iran's development of nuclear weapons
Rofl, ko je umetna inteligenca edina inteligenca, ki jo premoreš...
Drugače pa kako naj bi sporazum, od katerega je Trump odstopil po par letih, trajno karkoli prekinil, če je pa eden ključnih pogodbenih partnerjev ODSTOPIL od sporazuma? In kot že rečeno, ker pojma nimaš o Iranu in Perzicih, potem pride do takih umotvorov.
Mosab Hassan Yousef sicer hardcore ideološki nasprotnik Islamo fašizma in zagovornik Izraela vseeno trezno opozarja na izjemno kompleksnost in visoko ceno morebitnega vojaškega posredovanja v Iranu. Čeprav bi ZDA s svojo zračno in pomorsko premočjo zlahka uničile vojaške cilje, bi to sprožilo verižno reakcijo s katastrofalnimi posledicami. .
Kakorkoli obračaš, Iran je trenutno najbolj ranljiv v zadnjih 20-30-ih letih.
In ranjena žival je najbolj nevarna. Kar se je pokazalo tudi med protesti. To, da so najbolj ranljivi v zadnjih 20-30 letih, ne pomeni da lahko Orangutan z objavami na X in tremi raketami zruši režim. Lahko pa se podobno kot ti osmeši in porine celo regijo v večmesečni kaos.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
Legon ::
umetna inteligenca, je žal omejena z inteligenco sogovornika. Če recimo zastaviš vprašanje bolj korektno dobiš povsem drugo sliko:
Prompt: Can you provide a detailed impact JCPOA had on Iran's compliance with UN and AIEA? At What point did Iran resume its enrichment program and severe JCPOA violations?
Reply:
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in July 2015 and implemented from January 2016, was an agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) plus the European Union. It aimed to restrict Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief from the UN, EU, and US, while enhancing IAEA oversight to ensure compliance with non-proliferation obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015).
### Impact of JCPOA on Iran's Compliance with UN and IAEA Obligations
The JCPOA had a largely positive initial impact on Iran's compliance, leading to verifiable reductions in its nuclear activities and enhanced transparency. From Implementation Day (January 16, 2016) until mid-2019, the IAEA consistently verified Iran's adherence to key limits, which aligned with UN Security Council requirements by curbing Iran's potential pathways to nuclear weapons-grade material. This period marked a significant diplomatic achievement, as it expanded IAEA monitoring capabilities beyond standard safeguards, including continuous surveillance at key sites like Natanz and Fordow, and provided the agency with unprecedented access to Iran's nuclear supply chain.
Specific impacts included:
- **Uranium Enrichment Limits**: Iran capped enrichment at 3.67% U-235 (far below the 90% needed for weapons-grade material) and limited its low-enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg. It reduced operational centrifuges from about 19,000 to 5,060 IR-1 models, with no enrichment at Fordow until 2031.
- **Heavy Water and Other Restrictions**: Heavy water production was capped at 130 metric tons, and the Arak reactor was redesigned to prevent plutonium production suitable for weapons.
- **IAEA Monitoring Enhancements**: The JCPOA allowed for 24/7 IAEA camera surveillance, daily inspector access to enrichment facilities, and verification of centrifuge production and uranium ore concentrate. This resulted in over a dozen IAEA reports confirming compliance between 2016 and early 2019, with minor, quickly resolved exceedances (e.g., brief heavy water overages in 2016).
- **UN Sanctions Relief**: In line with Resolution 2231, the UN lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran upon IAEA verification of compliance, facilitating economic reintegration. However, the deal included a "snapback" mechanism allowing reimposition of sanctions for significant non-compliance.
Overall, during the compliance phase, Iran's breakout time (the period needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb) extended from 2-3 months pre-JCPOA to about 12 months. The IAEA described the JCPOA as a "substantive gain for nuclear verification," strengthening global non-proliferation efforts. However, critics noted that sanctions relief potentially funded Iran's regional activities, though this did not directly violate nuclear terms.
The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 and reimposition of sanctions disrupted this compliance, leading Iran to adopt a "strategic patience" approach initially but eventually to phased violations starting in 2019. By 2021, Iran's non-compliance had severely undermined IAEA monitoring, resulting in a "loss of continuity of knowledge" on key aspects like centrifuge production and uranium stockpiles. This has shortened Iran's breakout time to weeks or days, per some estimates, and raised proliferation risks.
### Timeline of Iran's Resumption of Enrichment and JCPOA Violations
Iran had an enrichment program dating back to the 2000s, but the JCPOA curtailed it significantly. "Resumption" in this context refers to activities exceeding JCPOA limits, which began as retaliatory steps after the U.S. exit. Violations escalated from minor breaches to severe ones, including high-purity enrichment and restrictions on IAEA access. The following table outlines key milestones based on IAEA verifications:
| Date | Event | Severity/Impact |
|------|--------|-----------------|
| May 8, 2019 | Iran announces it will stop implementing some JCPOA commitments, including sales of excess enriched uranium and heavy water. | Initial step; no immediate breach but signals intent. |
| June 17, 2019 | Iran warns it will exceed 300 kg low-enriched uranium stockpile limit by June 27. | Prepares for first major violation. |
| July 1, 2019 | IAEA verifies Iran exceeds 300 kg stockpile limit. | First confirmed breach; resumes accumulation beyond JCPOA caps. |
| July 8, 2019 | Iran begins enriching uranium to 4.5% purity (above 3.67% limit). | Escalates enrichment program. |
| August 30, 2019 | IAEA confirms 4.5% enrichment and stockpile over 300 kg. | Ongoing violation. |
| September 25, 2019 | IAEA verifies use of advanced centrifuges (IR-4, IR-6) for enrichment, beyond R&D limits. | Introduces more efficient technology. |
| November 9, 2019 | Iran resumes enrichment at Fordow (prohibited under JCPOA). | Severe breach; Fordow was converted to a research center under the deal. |
| November 18, 2019 | IAEA confirms heavy water stock exceeds 130 metric tons. | Additional violation. |
| January 5, 2020 | Iran announces abandonment of all JCPOA operational limits on centrifuges, enrichment levels, and stockpiles. | Major escalation; full resumption of unrestricted program. |
| January 4, 2021 | IAEA verifies enrichment to 20% at Fordow. | Severe; closer to weapons-grade. |
| February 23, 2021 | Iran suspends Additional Protocol, ending snap IAEA inspections and reducing monitoring. | Critical violation; diminishes IAEA oversight. |
| April 13, 2021 | Iran begins enriching to 60% purity. | Near-weapons-grade; considered severe by experts. |
| June 2022 | Iran removes 27 IAEA cameras and other JCPOA-related equipment. | Further erodes monitoring, leading to IAEA "loss of continuity." |
| February 2023 | IAEA detects particles enriched to 83.7% (nearly weapons-grade). | Heightens proliferation concerns. |
By late 2023 and into 2024-2025, Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reached over 6,000 kg (far exceeding the 300 kg limit), with 60% enriched material sufficient for multiple weapons if further processed. These actions have triggered IAEA censures and discussions of UN sanctions snapback, though Iran maintains its program is peaceful.
Prompt: Can you provide a detailed impact JCPOA had on Iran's compliance with UN and AIEA? At What point did Iran resume its enrichment program and severe JCPOA violations?
Reply:
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in July 2015 and implemented from January 2016, was an agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) plus the European Union. It aimed to restrict Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief from the UN, EU, and US, while enhancing IAEA oversight to ensure compliance with non-proliferation obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015).
### Impact of JCPOA on Iran's Compliance with UN and IAEA Obligations
The JCPOA had a largely positive initial impact on Iran's compliance, leading to verifiable reductions in its nuclear activities and enhanced transparency. From Implementation Day (January 16, 2016) until mid-2019, the IAEA consistently verified Iran's adherence to key limits, which aligned with UN Security Council requirements by curbing Iran's potential pathways to nuclear weapons-grade material. This period marked a significant diplomatic achievement, as it expanded IAEA monitoring capabilities beyond standard safeguards, including continuous surveillance at key sites like Natanz and Fordow, and provided the agency with unprecedented access to Iran's nuclear supply chain.
Specific impacts included:
- **Uranium Enrichment Limits**: Iran capped enrichment at 3.67% U-235 (far below the 90% needed for weapons-grade material) and limited its low-enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg. It reduced operational centrifuges from about 19,000 to 5,060 IR-1 models, with no enrichment at Fordow until 2031.
- **Heavy Water and Other Restrictions**: Heavy water production was capped at 130 metric tons, and the Arak reactor was redesigned to prevent plutonium production suitable for weapons.
- **IAEA Monitoring Enhancements**: The JCPOA allowed for 24/7 IAEA camera surveillance, daily inspector access to enrichment facilities, and verification of centrifuge production and uranium ore concentrate. This resulted in over a dozen IAEA reports confirming compliance between 2016 and early 2019, with minor, quickly resolved exceedances (e.g., brief heavy water overages in 2016).
- **UN Sanctions Relief**: In line with Resolution 2231, the UN lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran upon IAEA verification of compliance, facilitating economic reintegration. However, the deal included a "snapback" mechanism allowing reimposition of sanctions for significant non-compliance.
Overall, during the compliance phase, Iran's breakout time (the period needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb) extended from 2-3 months pre-JCPOA to about 12 months. The IAEA described the JCPOA as a "substantive gain for nuclear verification," strengthening global non-proliferation efforts. However, critics noted that sanctions relief potentially funded Iran's regional activities, though this did not directly violate nuclear terms.
The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 and reimposition of sanctions disrupted this compliance, leading Iran to adopt a "strategic patience" approach initially but eventually to phased violations starting in 2019. By 2021, Iran's non-compliance had severely undermined IAEA monitoring, resulting in a "loss of continuity of knowledge" on key aspects like centrifuge production and uranium stockpiles. This has shortened Iran's breakout time to weeks or days, per some estimates, and raised proliferation risks.
### Timeline of Iran's Resumption of Enrichment and JCPOA Violations
Iran had an enrichment program dating back to the 2000s, but the JCPOA curtailed it significantly. "Resumption" in this context refers to activities exceeding JCPOA limits, which began as retaliatory steps after the U.S. exit. Violations escalated from minor breaches to severe ones, including high-purity enrichment and restrictions on IAEA access. The following table outlines key milestones based on IAEA verifications:
| Date | Event | Severity/Impact |
|------|--------|-----------------|
| May 8, 2019 | Iran announces it will stop implementing some JCPOA commitments, including sales of excess enriched uranium and heavy water. | Initial step; no immediate breach but signals intent. |
| June 17, 2019 | Iran warns it will exceed 300 kg low-enriched uranium stockpile limit by June 27. | Prepares for first major violation. |
| July 1, 2019 | IAEA verifies Iran exceeds 300 kg stockpile limit. | First confirmed breach; resumes accumulation beyond JCPOA caps. |
| July 8, 2019 | Iran begins enriching uranium to 4.5% purity (above 3.67% limit). | Escalates enrichment program. |
| August 30, 2019 | IAEA confirms 4.5% enrichment and stockpile over 300 kg. | Ongoing violation. |
| September 25, 2019 | IAEA verifies use of advanced centrifuges (IR-4, IR-6) for enrichment, beyond R&D limits. | Introduces more efficient technology. |
| November 9, 2019 | Iran resumes enrichment at Fordow (prohibited under JCPOA). | Severe breach; Fordow was converted to a research center under the deal. |
| November 18, 2019 | IAEA confirms heavy water stock exceeds 130 metric tons. | Additional violation. |
| January 5, 2020 | Iran announces abandonment of all JCPOA operational limits on centrifuges, enrichment levels, and stockpiles. | Major escalation; full resumption of unrestricted program. |
| January 4, 2021 | IAEA verifies enrichment to 20% at Fordow. | Severe; closer to weapons-grade. |
| February 23, 2021 | Iran suspends Additional Protocol, ending snap IAEA inspections and reducing monitoring. | Critical violation; diminishes IAEA oversight. |
| April 13, 2021 | Iran begins enriching to 60% purity. | Near-weapons-grade; considered severe by experts. |
| June 2022 | Iran removes 27 IAEA cameras and other JCPOA-related equipment. | Further erodes monitoring, leading to IAEA "loss of continuity." |
| February 2023 | IAEA detects particles enriched to 83.7% (nearly weapons-grade). | Heightens proliferation concerns. |
By late 2023 and into 2024-2025, Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reached over 6,000 kg (far exceeding the 300 kg limit), with 60% enriched material sufficient for multiple weapons if further processed. These actions have triggered IAEA censures and discussions of UN sanctions snapback, though Iran maintains its program is peaceful.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
Stane2 ::
še enkrat:
"Obamin sporazum je bil slab in praktično ni prekinil razvoja iranskega nuklearnega orožja."
"Obamin sporazum je bil slab in praktično ni prekinil razvoja iranskega nuklearnega orožja."
Legon ::
Ja, smo slišali, da to misliš. Samo ne vem ali zaradi pingo soka, ali bolj verjetno zato, ker pojma nimaš. In to ti sporoča tudi edina inteligenca, ki jo poznaš - Grok.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
Stane2 ::
Edino stvar, ki jo obvladaš, je žaljenje sogovornika. Poveš pa praktično NIČ.
Na podlagi česa bi ti lahko vedel, kaj se dogaja v Iranu? Nimaš familije iz Irana, ne nahajaš se v bližini Irana, nimaš nobega stika z nobenim iz Irana... Eno samo nabijanje te je.
Grok hitro eliminira naduvane nevedneže tvojega kova.
Na podlagi česa bi ti lahko vedel, kaj se dogaja v Iranu? Nimaš familije iz Irana, ne nahajaš se v bližini Irana, nimaš nobega stika z nobenim iz Irana... Eno samo nabijanje te je.
Grok.
Grok hitro eliminira naduvane nevedneže tvojega kova.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Stane2 ()
Legon ::
To kdaj je Iran začel kršit JCPOA so dejstva, ki temejijo na podlagi IAEA poročil. Zdaj, če si ti domišljaš, da veš več od tega, je to stvar za tvojega psihiatra.
Torej na seznam stvari o katerih pojma nimaš lahko poleg Irana dodamo še uporabo AI.
Grok hitro eliminira naduvane nevedneže tvojega kova.
Torej na seznam stvari o katerih pojma nimaš lahko poleg Irana dodamo še uporabo AI.
Na podlagi česa bi ti lahko vedel, kaj se dogaja v Iranu? Nimaš familije iz Irana, ne nahajaš se v bližini Irana, nimaš nobega stika z nobenim iz Irana... Eno samo nabijanje te je.A nisi ravno ti še par postov nazaj blodil o tem, da naj grem nazaj v Iran? Se bo treba odločit katere slaboumne pravljice boš širil, ker drugače izpadeš precej zblojeno.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Legon ()
Goran10 ::
Nekak je tudi dejstvo sploh pa po nastopu Trumpove administracije da Američanom režim v Iranu enostavno ne zaupa. Tako da verjetno ne bo nobenega dogovora ker ameri za katerekoli dogovor ne morejo dostavit oprijemljivih garancij da ga bodo spoštovali.
Stane2 ::
To kdaj je Iran začel kršit JCPOA so dejstva, ki temejijo na podlagi IAEA poročil. Zdaj, če si ti domišljaš, da veš več od tega, je to stvar za tvojega psihiatra.
Grok hitro eliminira naduvane nevedneže tvojega kova.
Torej na seznam stvari o katerih pojma nimaš lahko poleg Irana dodamo še uporabo AI.
A lahko že enkrat zineš, NA PODLAGI ČESA TI VEŠ, kaj se dogaja v Iranu.