Ameriški Delniški Trg

pegasus je 1. maj 2026 ob 21:24 izjavil:

Teh rekordov me je strah, ker bodo ekonomisti v naslednjem momentu rekli, da smo v recesiji, ker rekordi ne padajo več. Če pa se rast umiri v naravne okvire, bo pa zanje sploh konec sveta. Pač skrajno omejen folk ...

Sanjariš nobenega konca sveta ne bo za ZDA, morda imaš v mislih Iran. Prav tako ne bo nobene recesije, Ameriško gospodarstvo še naprej neomejeno raste brez problema. ZDA so brez konkurence in kot kaže postajajo čez dalje bolj močnejši.

Rast delniških trgov je samo posledica non stop nakupa delnic, oz. želej po nakupu delnic.

Očitno je keša dovolj, pa se vlaga.

bm1973 je 2. maj 2026 ob 11:45 izjavil:

Rast delniških trgov je samo posledica non stop nakupa delnic, oz. želej po nakupu delnic.

Očitno je keša dovolj, pa se vlaga.

Ja, pa v zlato, pa v nepremičnine, pa v drage umetnine, ne pozabit AI seveda.

Problem je samo, da ima keš samo tistih 1%.

Samo marca je padel za 700, sedaj je pa rast le 300 od prejšnjega ath. Torej lahko pade bolj kot zraste.

Zanimivo da trgi ne trzajo, čeprav je jasna manipulacija brent future. Resnično ne vem, od kje jim bo nafta na papirju pomagala, ko se ve, da fizične nafte primanjkuje in trenutno sanje cen vzdržujejo samo še strateške rezerve. Proizvodnja ne more zalaufat na polno, ampak bo trajalo mesece, če ne leo da se popravi infrastrukture ter vzpostavi out put na pred februarsko raven...


What they're saying: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that "we don't have to have the actual agreement written in one day."

"This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile," he added.
But Rubio also called some of Iran's top leaders "insane in the brain" and said it was unclear whether they would make a deal.
Reality check: The White House believes the Iranian leadership is divided and it may be hard to forge consensus across the different factions. Some U.S. officials remain skeptical that even an initial deal will be reached.

U.S. officials have expressed optimism about a deal at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, but have yet to reach one.
But the two U.S. officials said President Trump's decision to back off his newly announced operation in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on progress in the talks.

Chalky je 6. maj 2026 ob 13:58 izjavil:

Ameriški delniški trg je ravnokar eksplodiral in je pre market povsem zelen. Danes bodo očitno novi rekordi across the board. Tega se ne da ustaviti. ZDA bodo gospodarsko in finančno premagale Kitajsko in ostali svet saj so vodilni v vsej tehnologiji. Noro kaj se dogaja.

ZDA bodo imele kmalu 20+ podjetij z 1T market capa. Kitajska nima nobenega, na prvem mestu je Tencent ki ima Market cap 500 milijard. Evropa ima ASML ki ima market cap 550 milijard. ZDA imajo že zdaj 10 podjetij z 1T ter kmalu še bistveno več.

Sej je v redu, samo dihaj, tako kot taco

subscriber je 6. maj 2026 ob 14:10 izjavil:

Chalky je 6. maj 2026 ob 13:58 izjavil:

Ameriški delniški trg je ravnokar eksplodiral in je pre market povsem zelen. Danes bodo očitno novi rekordi across the board. Tega se ne da ustaviti. ZDA bodo gospodarsko in finančno premagale Kitajsko in ostali svet saj so vodilni v vsej tehnologiji. Noro kaj se dogaja.

ZDA bodo imele kmalu 20+ podjetij z 1T market capa. Kitajska nima nobenega, na prvem mestu je Tencent ki ima Market cap 500 milijard. Evropa ima ASML ki ima market cap 550 milijard. ZDA imajo že zdaj 10 podjetij z 1T ter kmalu še bistveno več.

Hm, meni to izgleda bolj kot padanje vrednosti dolarja.

Sej mu ni jasno da so polovico $ naprintali v zadnjih 5 letih. Nekam pa ta denar resnično mora iti.

Malidelničar je 6. maj 2026 ob 14:17 izjavil:

Kolikšen procent portfelja bi vi dolgoročno imeli v ameriškem delniškem trgu?
Z ozirom na to, da je 2008-danes v % zavzel ogromen delež kapitalizacije svetovnih delniških trgov (65%).
Pred tem so imeli EM 2000-2008 vse do 20%.
1990 je bila Japonska skoraj 40%.
Evropa 25-30%.
Danes so EM mislim da max 10%, isto Evropa 15%.

Se lahko to obrne in je bolje imeti manj v ZDA, kaj menite?

Chalky ali Stane ali kakorkoli mu je sinonim, ti bo rekel vse..


Revenue backlog is the total value of revenue you’ve already contracted—but haven’t recognized yet—based on your revenue recognition schedule.

It can include:

Subscription revenue not yet recognized
Non-recurring service revenue (like onboarding or training)
Future revenue from active or pending subscriptions
To qualify, the revenue must be tied to a signed agreement with high certainty of delivery.

Chalky je 6. maj 2026 ob 14:23 izjavil:

Mr.B:: ravnokar Čisto odvisno v katere delnice investiraš. ZDA ima en kup podjetij kjer je jasno da bodo v prihodnosti dominirale trg s tehnologijami prihodnosti. ZDA verjetno ne bodo najbolj donosen trg ampak je pa dejstvo da je najbolj varen in zanesljiv ter precej bolj predictable kot ostali.

Back on topic, me zanima če lahko danes Google postane drugo podjetje s $5T Market Capa. Skupaj z NVIDIA bosta kmalu vredna več kot celoten Kitajski delniški trg skupaj.

Sorry če nimaš pet čistih, da je več kot polovica prihodkov, baziran na prihodnosti, na podlagi katerega pumpaš borzo ....
JE verjeto tale index bistveno bolj realen..

Chalky je 1. maj 2026 ob 15:38 izjavil:

Ameriški delniški trg je ravnokar prvič v zgodovini presegel $74 Trillion in je zdaj še 26 Trillion od stotice.

$74T/$100T

UPDATE: Ameriški delniški trg je ravnokar prvič v zgodovini prebil $75T in je zdaj še $25T od stotice.

$75T/$100T

BREAKING: Anthropic has agreed to a partnership with SpaceX that will "substantially" increase Claude's compute capacity and increase its usage limits for users.

Under the agreement, Anthropic will use all of the compute capacity at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. This will provide over 300 megawatts of additional capacity by the end of the month. Another massive AI deal has arrived.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/205...

Bolano. IPO bo verjetno zdaj še bistveno višji.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially rises above 7,350 for the first time in history, now up +16% since the March 30th low.
That's +$9.4 TRILLION in market cap since March 30th.


https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/205...

Kot napovedujem že dolgo, Ameriškega delniškega trga ne moreš premagati ker cel sistem sloni na njem, z tega vidika se z tabo Chalky 100% strinjam. Če razpade trg gre vse u tri pm. Pač tam je zakon najmočnejšega, če to nisi garaš celo življenje dva šihta, živiš v prikolici in na koncu tudi crkneš pred urgenco ker si ne moreš privoščit niti stopiti skozi vrata. Hkrati pa zbombandiraš vsakogar ki ti je v napoto ali ti dela preglavice.
Če se EU danes odloči da gremo po isti poti bi v par letih imeli tudi mi takšna podjetja. Se strinjaš Chalky?

Malidelničar je 6. maj 2026 ob 16:26 izjavil:

Nasploh pa me te valuacije v ZDA skrbijo in bo kakšna velika korekcija/crash.

Vseeno glavni trend ostaja. Software is eating the world. Se vedno si zlahka zamislis svet, ki je veliko bolj ucinkovit in produktiven. Ne rabis nobene konceptualne inovacije, samo integracijo latest tehnologij.

ripmork je 6. maj 2026 ob 22:48:19 izjavil:

Eno dobro prebral pred časom: če gre market gor je v zelenem, če gre market dol pa naprintajo, da gre spet v zeleno :)

So, it works? :)

Mr.B je 6. maj 2026 ob 13:29 izjavil:

Zanimivo da trgi ne trzajo, čeprav je jasna manipulacija brent future. Resnično ne vem, od kje jim bo nafta na papirju pomagala, ko se ve, da fizične nafte primanjkuje in trenutno sanje cen vzdržujejo samo še strateške rezerve. Proizvodnja ne more zalaufat na polno, ampak bo trajalo mesece, če ne leo da se popravi infrastrukture ter vzpostavi out put na pred februarsko raven...

What they're saying: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that "we don't have to have the actual agreement written in one day."

"This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile," he added.
But Rubio also called some of Iran's top leaders "insane in the brain" and said it was unclear whether they would make a deal.
Reality check: The White House believes the Iranian leadership is divided and it may be hard to forge consensus across the different factions. Some U.S. officials remain skeptical that even an initial deal will be reached.

U.S. officials have expressed optimism about a deal at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, but have yet to reach one.
But the two U.S. officials said President Trump's decision to back off his newly announced operation in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on progress in the talks.

No kako deluje borza..


Upam da obstaja tehnologija da iz manipulacij ustvariš fizično nafto :

tech bo pojedel ocitno vse ... od leta 2023 do danes je nasdaq 100 etf pridelal preko 40% plusa ...in to ob dca vlaganju vsak mesec ... meni je odlicno, ker ce pade za 70%, sem 30% v minusu in bom to vzel kot zelo lep popust. Ne vidim loose-loose scenarija zaenkrat.

Malidelničar je 7. maj 2026 ob 07:57:39 izjavil:

Tu imam isto mnenje. Mag7 ima nenormalno, nezdravo veliko utež v S&P indeksu.

Problem je, da so podatki "nova nafta". Ali je delez prevelik, ne vem. Ampak dokler nekdo ne zbije marz ameriskih informacijskih velikanov... dvomim, da se lahko kaj bistveno spremeni.

Kot nekdo z vložkom v ZDA indekse mi je Trumpov mandat ok, za povprečnega američana pa verjetno ne preveč, sploh ker borzo na gor vleče peščica podjetij.



Verjetno bi tako situacijo lahko argumentirali z "AI", ampak mislim da je jasno da je vzrok tedenski vrtiljak carin, vojn, izvršnih ukazov, besnih tweetow in posobnih cvetk.

Podatki so, kot piše na grafu, iz urada za delo in izključujejo plačilo na črno in službe povezane s kmetijstvom, torej dve področji na katerih so imigranti še posebej prisotni.
Res ni raketna znanost da je nepredvidljiva ekonomija in politika slaba za investicije in nova delovna mesta..

Hja to je en način kako si to lahko razlagaš. Drug pa, da podjetja zaradi nestabilnosti manj vlagajo v razvoj in manj zaposljujejo. Število prebivalcev v ZDA tudi v zadnjih par letih raste.
Nor. kljub pogosti kritiki EU ekonomije in skorajšnji stagnaciji prebivalstva število služb (glede na Eurostat) lepo raste (500k/quarter).

kow je 7. maj 2026 ob 22:29:40 izjavil:

Nisi razumel. Ce imas manj ljudi, imas tudi manj delovnih mest. To je osnovna logika, ki nima protiargumenta. Rast prebivalstva v ZDA se je gotovo upocasnila. Stevilo novih delovnih mest bi upadlo tudi brez "nepredvidljive ekonomije".

Potem pa razlagaj...
The federal government must issue more debt than it expected as cash flow weakens, and ‘the bond market is shouting’
The Treasury Department announced this week that it expects to borrow more than anticipated in ‌the current quarter as incoming cash flow has been weaker than initially projected.

The $189 billion now estimated for the April-June quarter is $79 billion more than what Treasury saw in February. And after adjusting for a larger-than-expected cash balance at the start of the quarter, the new borrowing guidance is actually $122 billion higher.

ali pa
Why the Fed Began a New Phase of Balance-Sheet Expansion in December
February 24, 2026
Some have called the operations the return of quantitative easing (QE). The US Federal Reserve (the Fed), however, labelled them “reserve management purchases” (RMPs). Irrespective of the nomenclature, December saw the Fed decisively reverse course on monetary policy and initiate its first meaningful balance-sheet expansion in years. As such, it marked a decisive break from the contractionary quantitative tightening (QT) regime that had prevailed since 2022.

The Central Bank Balance-Sheet Trilemma
Burcu Duygan-Bump and R. Jay Kahn

Introduction
Between December 2005 and December 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew from about $800 billion to roughly $6.5 trillion—an increase from around 6 percent to 21 percent of GDP. This expansion primarily reflected two policy decisions by the FOMC. First, the FOMC introduced quantitative-easing programs after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and during the COVID-19 pandemic as a means of further lowering longer-term interest rates when targeted short-term interest rates were already at their effective lower bound.1 Second, the FOMC decided, in 2019, to make a structural shift in its operating framework for targeting short-term interest rates, moving to an ample-reserves regime for supplying liquidity to the banking system rather than returning to the scarce reserves regime that had been in place previously.2

Se pravi julija?

Kako je bilo na Kitajskem...

In kako je taco luzer izpadel ko se je ko je bil na kitajskem, no Zagotovo vemo da je kupil verjetno Boeing delnice, kot nazadnje nVidia delnice.
Izkazalo se je da TAC zna govoriti le v izrazih hitre prehrane, no na nivoju ko se pogovarja s po-jem.

No mislim, ko v Geopolitiki govoriš no si kot maga upaš govoriti , da je problem Amerike na globalni ravni ti število kitajskih fast food restavracij

Nvidii gre izredno dobro.