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Konflikt v Siriji

Konflikt v Siriji

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Fritz ::

V Izraelu so volitve. Vojna je vedno v prid trenutno vladajočim.

Žal alternativa Bibiju ni nič boljša.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

fikus_ ::

Pač priprave po potrebah politike! Pošlješ preverjenega novinarja, da napiše "preverjeno" in "pravo" informacijo, ki ji želiš razširiti.

Pac-Man ::

Uporabni idioti so na vodenem ogledu Sirije. Kot se za idiote spodobi streljajo kozle.
Nit:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/117...
This Orwellian inversion of reality is so crude that it'd be comical if the subject weren't so tragic. Here Blumenthal stands before a poster of Al Kuwa Al Jaafaria—an Iranian-backed sectarian militia—& claims it shows Syrian soldiers who died fighting "foreign backed extremists"
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenilo: Pac-Man ()

Fritz ::

Iranian backed militia sestavljena iz sirskih borcev, domačinov iz Damaska.

Seveda so to boltonovi uporabni idioti gladko spregledali, tako kot 'upornike' med katerimi so savdijci, libijci, tunižani, ujguri itn. itn.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Pac-Man ::

Velika večina izven al kajde in ISIS-a je kar lokalcev. Pa še tam bi si upal trditi, da je (bilo) čez 50% domačinov.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Fritz ::

Pac-Man je izjavil:

Velika večina izven al kajde in ISIS-a je kar lokalcev. Pa še tam bi si upal trditi, da je (bilo) čez 50% domačinov.

@Ali_Kourani
MoreAli Retweeted Shane Bauer
The insinuation here with “Iran-backed Shia militias” is that they’re foreign. Liwa’ as-Sayyida Ruqayyah (Ja’afari Force) is a group of native Damascenes. But you never hear the identifier “US-backed” for the YPG or “Saudi-Qatari-backed” for the FSA.

Ali pa Shane Bauer, backed by CIA (ta je zgodbo, ki jo nekritično prenašaš). Revež je pred leti (v času spopadov v Iraku) pohajal po meji med Irakom in Iranom ter 'po pomoti' zašel v Iran.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

blasfemik ::

Prekletstvo "Asad mora oditi" se nadaljuje.

Fritz ::



...in je šel >:D

Me prav zanima koga bo Izrael sedaj nastavil za NSA.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Truga ::

Postaj vsaj pravo sliko:

:D

Fritz ::

Truga je izjavil:

Postaj vsaj pravo sliko:
:D

:)

Tedaj je še ni bilo. Sicer je pa tudi Assad vreden svojega denarja, četudi je bistveno manjše zlo od salafistične golazni.

Lahko pa dodam še nekaj na Pacotovo pisanje o domačinih, ki se borijo proti Assadu. Tukaj je nekaj več o ubitem vodstvenem kadru HTS oz. Al-Kajde v Siriji. Sami domačini, ni kaj 8-)
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/201...
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Truga ::

Ko smo ze ravno pri assadu:
https://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-adm...

lmao

blasfemik ::

Maligna tvorba, kamenodobno kraljestvo iz mivke je danes dobilo zaušnico.
Za ta čas v Sočiju, Bibi čaka na sprejem ure in ure.
Še bo zanimivo...

Jarno ::

C-RAM Phalanx intercept of incoming rocket barrage.

A bi kdo vedel povedati kaj več o tem? :)
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=9CA1z_1...
#Lewdy Kure pepelaugh

blasfemik ::

Arma 3

Jarno ::

Hvala. Se mi je kar zdelo. :))
#Lewdy Kure pepelaugh

Pac-Man ::

Truga je izjavil:

Ko smo ze ravno pri assadu:
https://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-adm...

lmao


8. februar 2018, debunkano naslednji dan.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/20...



Potem imamo tole s strani znanstvene revije Science & Global Security, ki je odpovedala/zamaknila objavo Postolovega članka o kemičnih napadih. Ted je sicer član uredniškega odbora.
http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/edi...
http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/abo...

To ensure the high standards of editorial control, integrity, and rigor that this journal has always sought to maintain, we conducted an independent internal review of the editorial process for this manuscript. This review identified a number of issues with the peer-review and revision process. As a result, the editors have decided to withhold the publication of this article to examine whether the editors can rectify the problems that we identified.

The editors accept responsibility for the oversight, and we apologize to the authors, the reviewers, and our readers.


Higginsov tejk s sredine septembra:
Simulations, Craters and Lies: Postol’s Latest Attempt to Undermine the Last Vestiges of his Reputation



Danes pa je Higgins našel svojo belugo - neeksplodirano sirsko bombo za Sarin in to na videoposnetku, ki je bil na YT naložen l. 2013.
Zadeva posredno dokazuje, da je bil enak tip bombe uporabljen v kemičnih napadih l. 2017, tudi tistem, kjer se Postol na vse pretege trudi dokazati, da je šlo za improvizacijo s strani "teroristov". Med drugim s preklicanim znanstvenim člankom zgoraj.



The First Images of the Type of Chemical Bomb Used in Syria’s Sarin Attacks

...
A pair of filler caps is highly unusual for any bomb, but the purpose of having two filler caps was explained in a Mediapart article by a former member of the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC):

“It also meant that engineers from the SSRC also had to design bombs that were specific for sarin, and which were quite different to ordinary munitions. “On the outside, they resemble conventional bombs of 250 and 500 kilos of TNT,” explained one of them. “But inside they were totally different, divided into two compartments. The first, at the front, carried the DF. The second, at the rear, [contained] the isopropyl and hexamine. This mixture is stirred together by a stirring rod that can be activated by sort of crank at the rear of the bomb. When the two compartments are filled up, a technician winds the crank which advances the stirring rod to the point it breaks the wall of mica. The sarin synthesis reaction is set off inside the bomb, placed under a cold shower and maintained within a very precise temperature range which is controlled by a laser thermometer,” continued the former SSRC source. “After which, all that’s left is to introduce, in the allocated hold at the point of the bomb, the explosive charge and detonator – altimetric, chronometric or other – and to place the bomb under the wing of the plane. The load must be very precisely measured. If it is too big, the heat given off can cause the decomposition of the product, or the formation of a cloud of gas too far from the ground, which would render it ineffective.

...

As per the above description, the diagram of the MYM6000 bomb shows a wall separating the two chambers filled from the two filler caps, and the crank arm at the rear of the bomb. This same crank arm is seen in the diagram of the M4000 bomb. This crank arm, and the housing it sits inside, can be seen below, marked blue and yellow respectively:

...

Furthermore, it is possible to establish the approximate size of the bomb in the April 2013 video, and this is how: By creating a 3D model of the bomb in the video is it then possible to use the previously established measurements of the filler caps to calculate the width of the bomb.


...

On the complete bomb from the April 2013 video we can see that next to the filler caps there are suspension lugs. One of the two filler caps recovered from the March 30, 2017 Al-Lataminah attack site is connected by a piece of metal to a suspension lug that matches the type seen in the April 2013 video, down to the shape of the weld attaching it to the bombing casing:
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

windigo ::

Erdogan spet (zdi se mi, da o tem pišem najmanj tretjič) grozi, da bo vkorakal v Sirijo in zasedel večino Kurdskega ozemlja. Oziroma kakor sam temu pravi: vzpostavil bi obmejno varnostno cono zaradi nevarnosti kurdskega terorizma in vanjo naselil (pretežno arabske) sirske begunce iz Turčije.

Tokrat pravi, da se bo zgodilo "čez noč, brez opozoril".

Na zadnjem zasedanju ZN je tudi predstavil svoj načrt, kaj in kako naj bi se zgodilo. Zgleda, da od svojih zahtev nikakor ne odstopa, edino kar ponuja, pa je, da lahko to storijo zlepa, sicer bo on to stril z vojaško silo.

Kurdi, točneje YPG, so se v zadnjem mesecu umaknili neposredno z meje s Turčijo in uničili nekatere utrjene položaje in sicer za 5 - 15km in ne za zahtevanih dobrih 30km.

Turška Lira je seveda, tako kot tudi prejšnjič, izgubila nekaj vrednosti, tokrat slaba 2%.

https://thedefensepost.com/2019/10/01/t...

windigo ::

Torej Trump je vrgel Kurde pod avtobus. Ameriška vojska se ne bo vmešavala v Erdoganove operacije v Turčiji. Turčija pa "bo poskrbela" za obstoječe borce ISIS.



Včeraj je bilo videti nekaj nervoze na syria.livemapua. Američani so intenzivno patruljirali ob meji med Turčijo in Sirijo, tako v zraku, kot na tleh. Turki so dvignili nekaj avionov, potem pa leteli le nad Efrin. Zgleda da so eni že bili obveščeni o novih razmerah, drugi pa še ne. O vojaških konvojih v Turčiji in kopičenju turških čet na meji se poroča že dober teden.

Kurdi so najavili, da bi to lahko pripeljalo do splošne vojne med njimi in Turčijo.

Pac-Man ::

Američani se generalno zgražajo, Kurdi so #1 trending topic na twitterju.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Kurds

video:
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1181...
Lindsey Graham calls in to Fox & Friends & calls Trump's decision to abandon the Kurds "impulsive."

"I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted & irresponsible this decision is in my view," he says. "This to me is just unnerving to its core."
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

arnecan1 ::

Pac-Man je izjavil:

Američani se generalno zgražajo, Kurdi so #1 trending topic na twitterju.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Kurds

video:
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1181...
Lindsey Graham calls in to Fox & Friends & calls Trump's decision to abandon the Kurds "impulsive."

"I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted & irresponsible this decision is in my view," he says. "This to me is just unnerving to its core."

Se strinjam. Sicer pa smo že pred leti napovedali, da ko bodo Kurdi opravili svinjsko delo z Isil-om, jih bodo velike sile odvrgle kakor svinjski mehur. Kot že videno v preteklosti.

Na žalost je to zelo nemoralno s strani Trumpa ali njegove administracije. Ali je kakšen deal z Erdoganom ali pa Trump enostavno noče napenjati mišic za po njegovem nepotrebnem problemu.

arnecan1 ::

Ups, še niti prečital nisem, preden sem oddal zgornji post: https://stari.rtvslo.si/svet/bliznji-vz...

Vsekakor pa se uresničujejo mokre sanje SJW, ZDA dosti manj igrajo vlogo svetovnega policaja. Je pa to dobra možnost za Evropo, da stopi na stran Kurdov še s čem drugim in ne samo z besedami;((

Mr.B ::

Na nas strani, predstave...Vidimo kaj bo rezultat.Sedaj kot kaze se niti ne skrivajo
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday defended a decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria, saying it was too costly to keep supporting U.S-allied, Kurdish-led forces in the region fighting Islamic State militants.


arnecan1 je izjavil:

Ups, še niti prečital nisem, preden sem oddal zgornji post: https://stari.rtvslo.si/svet/bliznji-vz...

Vsekakor pa se uresničujejo mokre sanje SJW, ZDA dosti manj igrajo vlogo svetovnega policaja. Je pa to dobra možnost za Evropo, da stopi na stran Kurdov še s čem drugim in ne samo z besedami;((

Nisi bral novic o valu beguncev.. Turcija jih ima dovolj..
Voljeno telo ogledalo volilnega telesa.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: Mr.B ()

fikus_ ::

EU ne bo naredila nič drugega kot zamižala. Erdoganu bodo pustili tisto 30 km cono in da naselili Sirce, ki ga podpirajo. Info Sirci bodo čisto srečni, da bodo imeli kje biti. EU bo zadovoljna in se zraven plačala, da bo manj beguncev.
Bi bilo zanimivo zvedet, kako to da sta Erdo in Trump spet prijatelja, čeprav so Turki kupili S400.

Mr.B ::

rusi ze trdijo da turki bombandirajo... so pokvarili trumpu popoldan...
Voljeno telo ogledalo volilnega telesa.

blasfemik ::

Turki so NATO, Kurdi so kaj?
Vsak izdajalec slej kot prej dobi svoje.
Afrin so dali raje Turkom, kot pa Siriji.
Sirija bo vzpostavila celovito suverenost nad svojim ozemljem.

Mr.B ::

blasfemik je izjavil:

Turki so NATO, Kurdi so kaj?
Vsak izdajalec slej kot prej dobi svoje.
Afrin so dali raje Turkom, kot pa Siriji.
Sirija bo vzpostavila celovito suverenost nad svojim ozemljem.

Sirija nima nikakrne moci ....
Voljeno telo ogledalo volilnega telesa.

Fritz ::

Sem že zdavnaj napisal, da lahko Kurdom zaščito nudi le suverenost Sirije, ki jo v pajdašenju z Američani lepo zanikajo.

Da en Trumpo podpira komunistično gerilo in samoupravo pa je že zdavnaj bilo jasno, da to ne more trajati. Po moje jih precej skrbi kakšnih 'kvarnih' vplivov so se ameriški specialci nalezli v Rojavi.

Sirski Kurdi se morajo pobotati z režimom v Damasku in si izboriti določeno avtonomijo, obenem pa zagotoviti suverenost Sirije na ozemlju pod njihovim nadzorom.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Pac-Man ::

Nit nekoga, ki se malenkost spozna na situacijo.

Brett McGurk @ Wikipedia
Most recently, he was the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL. He was appointed to this post by President Barack Obama on October 23, 2015, and was retained in that role by the Trump administration until 2018. (...) on December 22, 2018, in the wake of President Trump's decision to withdraw troops from Syria, McGurk announced his resignation from his post effective December 31, 2018.[2]


https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status...

Regarding Syria and Turkey, there is some disinformation out there (including from the POTUS himself), so here is some background on what is admittedly a complex matter with no easy or magic formulas:

First: It was Trump (not Obama) that made the decision to arm the Kurdish component (YPG) of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to take Raqqa, then ISIS’s capital city. He made this decision after his national security team developed options for his review.

The SDF suffered thousands of casualties in the Raqqa battle. Not a single American life was lost. Trump later expanded the operation down the ERV. He touts these operations in political rallies but without apparent thought as to who did the fighting and dying.

The weapons provided were meager and just enough for the battle against ISIS. (The SDF cleared IEDs by purchasing flocks of sheep.) They were not “paid massive amounts of money and equipment” (as Trump said today). Nearly all stabilization funding came from the @coalition.

Second: the United States did not partner with SDF over realistic alternatives. Both Obama and Trump developed and considered options to work with the Turkey-backed opposition, which is unfortunately riddled with extremists, many tied to al Qaeda.

Nonetheless, our best military planners spent months with counterparts in Turkey across both administrations. The only available Turkey-approved option in NE Syria would have required tens of thousands of American troops. Two U.S. presidents rejected that option.

Third: the United States is not “holding” ISIS detainees in Syria. They are all being held by the SDF, and barely so given meager resources. State and DOD Inspectors General have covered this in depth. Summary here 👉
https://media.defense.gov/2019/Aug/06/2...

Turkish entry by force into NE Syria risks fracturing the SDF, pulling its fighters out of former ISIS strongholds, abandoning ISIS prison facilities, and making it impossible for U.S. forces to stay on the ground in small numbers with an acceptable level of risk.

Fourth: It was the Trump administration that dramatically expanded the Syria mission in 2018 beyond ISIS to include staying on the ground until Iran left Syria and the civil war was resolved (meaning many years). Another example of maximalist objectives for a minimalist POTUS.

Indeed, the administration expanded the mission and policy aims in Syria while Trump cut U.S. resources by more than 50 percent, leaving our people on the ground scrambling with no backup from the president himself. Misaligned ends/means = policy incoherence & risk.

Trump then (twice) abruptly reversed course after
1) a foreign leader call and
2) without consulting his own military advisors.
If anyone still believes Trump cares about Syria, they’re mistaken. He doesn’t and his erratic swings heighten risk to our personnel on the ground.

Finally: the U.S. leads a @coalition that includes over 80 countries and nearly two dozen contributors to the military and/or stabilization mission in Syria. Leading a coalition requires consultation with coalition partners before major decisions are taken. This is elementary.

The consequences of such unreliability from the Oval will reverberate well beyond Syria. The value of an American handshake is depreciating. Trump today said we could “crush ISIS again" if it regenerated. With who? What allies would sign up? Who would fight on his assurances?

Bottom line: These are matters of war and peace, life and death. Our military personnel, friends and allies, deserve deliberation and thought before decisions are made (the essence of “command”). Erratic swings favor far more patient adversaries in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.

I discussed much of this in @foreignaffairs a few month ago and stand by the analysis. You can read it here👇
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles...
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

7982884e ::

blasfemik je izjavil:

Turki so NATO, Kurdi so kaj?
Vsak izdajalec slej kot prej dobi svoje.
Afrin so dali raje Turkom, kot pa Siriji.
Sirija bo vzpostavila celovito suverenost nad svojim ozemljem.


Fritz je izjavil:

Sem že zdavnaj napisal, da lahko Kurdom zaščito nudi le suverenost Sirije, ki jo v pajdašenju z Američani lepo zanikajo.

Da en Trumpo podpira komunistično gerilo in samoupravo pa je že zdavnaj bilo jasno, da to ne more trajati. Po moje jih precej skrbi kakšnih 'kvarnih' vplivov so se ameriški specialci nalezli v Rojavi.

Sirski Kurdi se morajo pobotati z režimom v Damasku in si izboriti določeno avtonomijo, obenem pa zagotoviti suverenost Sirije na ozemlju pod njihovim nadzorom.

zascito?
kako tocno bi po vasem potekalo to pajdasenje kurdov s sirci?
a takrat, ko je isis imel pod kontrolo dve tretjini drzave, bi morali kurdi zapriseci asadu, in kmalu potem pocrkati s strani jihadijev?

SAA nikoli ni bila v poziciji kjer bi bilo v stratesko korist kurdom. tudi v afrinu; ko so bili turki odloceni bi steamrollali cez SAA ravno tako kot so cez kurde.
kjerkoli drugod so bile pa kvecjemu napetosi. na drugem bregu evfrata, okoli deir ez zor, bi SAA zasedli svoje brez da bi pustili karkoli avtonomije komurkoli drugemu, ker konec koncev tisto ni kurdsko ozemlje.
glede Rusov se pa spomnimo, da so se lepo umaknili iz Afrina, preden so Turki zaceli svoje. tukaj sploh ni bilo opcije.

xxxul ::

zdej so mal drugacni cajti, Assad je precej bl močn; Kurdi se morjo odloct pod kom bodo rajs, Assadom al Erdoganom, samostojni pač ne bodo; če se teoreticno Kurdi postavjo pod Assada, in Rusi rečejo OK, pol bo Erdogan spet pred konkretno dilemo.

Fritz ::

7982884e je izjavil:


zascito?
kako tocno bi po vasem potekalo to pajdasenje kurdov s sirci?
a takrat, ko je isis imel pod kontrolo dve tretjini drzave, bi morali kurdi zapriseci asadu, in kmalu potem pocrkati s strani jihadijev?

SAA nikoli ni bila v poziciji kjer bi bilo v stratesko korist kurdom. tudi v afrinu; ko so bili turki odloceni bi steamrollali cez SAA ravno tako kot so cez kurde.
kjerkoli drugod so bile pa kvecjemu napetosi. na drugem bregu evfrata, okoli deir ez zor, bi SAA zasedli svoje brez da bi pustili karkoli avtonomije komurkoli drugemu, ker konec koncev tisto ni kurdsko ozemlje.
glede Rusov se pa spomnimo, da so se lepo umaknili iz Afrina, preden so Turki zaceli svoje. tukaj sploh ni bilo opcije.

Takrat, ko je imel IS pod kontrolo dve tretjini države, se je tudi Assadov režim boril za preživetje. Je pa Assadov režim še vedno edina uradna oblast v Siriji. V trenutku ko se odrečeš sirski državi in ustvarjaš neko svojo nepriznano entiteto, se postavljaš v konfliktno razmerje do priznane oblasti ter izpostavljaš na milost in nemilost močnejšim sosedom. Turčija tako samooklicanemu Idlibstanu pomaga, Kurde pa bi najraje izbrisala in jih tudi bo, če bodo ti brez zaščite močnejše sile.

Če bi Turki neposredno napadli SAA, tako kot mislijo Kurde, bi bil to vstop Turčije v vojno proti Siriji, kar bi lahko imelo resne posledice za Turčijo. Napad na skupino, ki zaseda del Sirije in po mnenju Turkov predstavlja grožnjo njihovi nacionalni varnosti pa je nekaj povsem drugega.

Mimogrede, Rusi so se umaknili iz Afrina, ker ga Kurdi niso hoteli predati pod oblast Damaska. Po tem smo videli kakšna je njihova moč proti Turčiji. V Manbiju igrajo malce drugačno igro in jim SAA ter Rusi zagotavljajo določeno zaščito.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

7982884e ::

ja, ampak kot pravim: edini potencialno za kurde uspesen alternativni scenarij je tak:
1. leta 2014 sprejmejo pomoc koalicije in americanov, vkljucno z zracnimi silami in nekaj tisoc kopenskimi vojaki in specialci, vkljucno z iraskimi pesmergami, in v naslednjih treh letih z veliko pomocjo koalicije zavzamejo tretjino sirije
2. leta 2017 po tem ko zavzamejo rako in ko en kup kurdov umre za osvobajanje ozemlja ki ni njihovo zahtevajo da se celotna mednarodna koalicija, ki vmes ze izvaja defenzivno patruljiranje ob turski meji, umakne in povabijo asada, ki mu predajo vso avtoriteto in upajo na neko minimalno avtonomijo (ceprav to nikdar ni bilo "on the table")
3. pocakajo na zimo 2017 da SAA sploh pride do vzhoda sirije in evfrata
4. mednarodna koalicija se prostovoljno umakne in prevzem oblasti se zgodi brez vecjih incidentov in dobijo neko avtonomijo
5. kljub tej avtonomiji vzpostavijo rusi defenzivne patrulje in dolgorocno preprecijo turkom vdor

Mr.B ::

Kurdi so tvegali, da bodo Američani/ Izraelci itd odstranili Asadov režim ter imeli svoj drugi Kurdistan... Sedja pač bodo dobili po P, ostali bodo samo Turkom primerni Kurdi. Kako se bo to odražalo v končnih mejah, je druga zgodba. Ostalo bo zgodovina. Asad nima neke moči spremeniti stanja ali invazije Turkov. Je v končni fazi namen narediti Asadov sistem čim bolj šibek. Problem je le, da si verjetno Izrael ne želi imeti turkov bližje kot nujno treba. Počakajmo... Trenutno imajo Američani s sabo druge probleme.
Voljeno telo ogledalo volilnega telesa.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: Mr.B ()

Fritz ::

7982884e je izjavil:

ja, ampak kot pravim: edini potencialno za kurde uspesen alternativni scenarij je tak:
1. leta 2014 sprejmejo pomoc koalicije in americanov, vkljucno z zracnimi silami in nekaj tisoc kopenskimi vojaki in specialci, vkljucno z iraskimi pesmergami, in v naslednjih treh letih z veliko pomocjo koalicije zavzamejo tretjino sirije
2. leta 2017 po tem ko zavzamejo rako in ko en kup kurdov umre za osvobajanje ozemlja ki ni njihovo zahtevajo da se celotna mednarodna koalicija, ki vmes ze izvaja defenzivno patruljiranje ob turski meji, umakne in povabijo asada, ki mu predajo vso avtoriteto in upajo na neko minimalno avtonomijo (ceprav to nikdar ni bilo "on the table")
3. pocakajo na zimo 2017 da SAA sploh pride do vzhoda sirije in evfrata
4. mednarodna koalicija se prostovoljno umakne in prevzem oblasti se zgodi brez vecjih incidentov in dobijo neko avtonomijo
5. kljub tej avtonomiji vzpostavijo rusi defenzivne patrulje in dolgorocno preprecijo turkom vdor

Če so ZDA Kurde zaščitile in jim pomagale oz. jih uporabile za boj proti IS, so s porazom IS izgubile vsakršen razlog, da bi tam še vztrajale.

Od te točke naprej pa bi morali Kurdi urediti odnose z Damaskom ali razglasiti svojo državo, ki je ob nasprotovanju Sirije, Turčije, Iraka in Irana - misija nemogoče. Torej, realno gledano in glede na to, da govorimo o sirskem ozemlju, se zadeva rešuje znotraj Sirije. Vse ostalo so natolcevanja in želje brez realne podlage. Vztrajanje na takšnih iluzijah bo imelo za Kurde enake posledice kot so jih imeli v Afrinu, pri čemer bodo kratko potegnili tudi vsi drugi prebivalci zasedenih območij. In ta zasedena območja bo nekoč sirska vojska verjetno zavzemala z orožjem, če jih Turčija ne bo anektirala. Končni rezultat zgrešene politike pri Kurdih bo ta, da jih bodo Turki natepli, v Damasku pa jih bodo sovražili, saj so s svojo neumnostjo Turkom predali del sirskega ozemlja, kamor bodo Turki naselili islamistično svojat.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Mr.B ::

Fritz je izjavil:

7982884e je izjavil:

ja, ampak kot pravim: edini potencialno za kurde uspesen alternativni scenarij je tak:
1. leta 2014 sprejmejo pomoc koalicije in americanov, vkljucno z zracnimi silami in nekaj tisoc kopenskimi vojaki in specialci, vkljucno z iraskimi pesmergami, in v naslednjih treh letih z veliko pomocjo koalicije zavzamejo tretjino sirije
2. leta 2017 po tem ko zavzamejo rako in ko en kup kurdov umre za osvobajanje ozemlja ki ni njihovo zahtevajo da se celotna mednarodna koalicija, ki vmes ze izvaja defenzivno patruljiranje ob turski meji, umakne in povabijo asada, ki mu predajo vso avtoriteto in upajo na neko minimalno avtonomijo (ceprav to nikdar ni bilo "on the table")
3. pocakajo na zimo 2017 da SAA sploh pride do vzhoda sirije in evfrata
4. mednarodna koalicija se prostovoljno umakne in prevzem oblasti se zgodi brez vecjih incidentov in dobijo neko avtonomijo
5. kljub tej avtonomiji vzpostavijo rusi defenzivne patrulje in dolgorocno preprecijo turkom vdor

Če so ZDA Kurde zaščitile in jim pomagale oz. jih uporabile za boj proti IS, so s porazom IS izgubile vsakršen razlog, da bi tam še vztrajale.

Od te točke naprej pa bi morali Kurdi urediti odnose z Damaskom ali razglasiti svojo državo, ki je ob nasprotovanju Sirije, Turčije, Iraka in Irana - misija nemogoče. Torej, realno gledano in glede na to, da govorimo o sirskem ozemlju, se zadeva rešuje znotraj Sirije. Vse ostalo so natolcevanja in želje brez realne podlage. Vztrajanje na takšnih iluzijah bo imelo za Kurde enake posledice kot so jih imeli v Afrinu, pri čemer bodo kratko potegnili tudi vsi drugi prebivalci zasedenih območij. In ta zasedena območja bo nekoč sirska vojska verjetno zavzemala z orožjem, če jih Turčija ne bo anektirala. Končni rezultat zgrešene politike pri Kurdih bo ta, da jih bodo Turki natepli, v Damasku pa jih bodo sovražili, saj so s svojo neumnostjo Turkom predali del sirskega ozemlja, kamor bodo Turki naselili islamistično svojat.

Če ti misliš da bo Amerika delala v nasprotju intereom Izraela, hm naming bolnice.
Voljeno telo ogledalo volilnega telesa.

Fritz ::

Lahko se zgodi, da bo Trumpo spet požrl svoje besede a je pred impeachmentom in že globoko v predvolilni kampanji, zato je marsikatero njegovo potezo potrebno gledati skozi to.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Pac-Man ::

Kjut.

https://twitter.com/IgnatiusPost/status...

A bad situation in Northeast Syria is about to get much worse. Sources tell me that US officials have just informed the Syrian Kurds that Turkey is likely to attack on air and ground in next 24 hours. The US will do nothing. Targets are Tal Abyad and Ras al Ayn. Ironically Tal Abyad was the main supply route for ISIS in 2014-15 through an open border from Turkey. Turkey refused repeated requests from US to shut border. That's a big reason why US decided to partner with SDF, which took the town in the summer of 2015. I'm also told that Turkish attack appears coordinated with the Russians. Russian-backed forces are mobilizing to invade the Kurdish area from the south — towards Tabqa and other spots. Meanwhile, ISIS is mobilizing sleeper cells in Raqqa and attacks have taken place tonight. And finally there is the scary issue of the thousands of ISIS detainees and families, who may be breaking out of camps and prisons after Turkish attack--with NO American back-up plan. This is a major disaster coming at us because of Trump's decisions. Hours left to stop it.

alzo

That's a big reason why US decided to partner with SDF, which took the town in the summer of 2015.


Rusija je z operacijami v Siriji začela konec septembra 2015.
Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War @ Wikipedia
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenilo: Pac-Man ()

c3p0 ::

> The US will do nothing

Kaj pa bi US, napadla NATO članico? Vložila protestno noto, barbi style?

windigo ::

Fahretin Altun, Erdoganov glavni piarovec, je v Washington Postu objavil članek, v katerem opisuje turški pogled na to, kaj se bo zgodilo na turško-sirski meji:

- Trump je predal vodenje akcije in boja proti ISIS Turčiji. (Beri: kdor se upira Turčiji, podpira ISIS)
- Turčija bo skupaj s FSA v kratkem vstopila v Sirijo. (Nič ne omenja kakšne 30 kilometerske cone)
- Ameriško sodelovanje s YPG je bilo taktično, sedaj so se razmere spremenile. (Izdaja Kurdov močno odmeva in jo je potrebno zato normalizirati v javnem diskurzu)
- Turško posredovanje je nujno, saj je ogrožena prihodnost Turčije (Verjetno precej podobno, kot trdi Izrael za Palestince)
- Turčija bo osvobodila lokalno prebivalstvo pred terorjem oboroženih nasilnežev (Beri: YPG in Kurdov, pred časom ni kazala nobenih podobnih ambicij napram ISIS, ti so bili ok)
- YPG ima dve opciji: lahko se takoj preda ali dezertira, sicer bo zaustavljena. (Beri: pogajanja z YPG so izključena, kasnejša predaja bo imela posledice)
- Vsi moramo biti veseli turške invazije, američani, ker gredo lahko domov, domačini, ker se bodo znebili YPG, Evropa, ker bodo šli begunci tja. (Beri: dajte mir z diplomatskimi pritiski, raje niti ne pomislite na gospodarske sankcije, sicer ...)
- Erdogan je objavil svoje narčte v ZN, kjer se bo 2 miljona sirskih beguncev prostovoljno javilo, da gre živet v turško varno cono v Sirijo (to je takorekoč humanitarna akcija)
- Če pa bi, tako slučajno, mimogrede, ta cona segla vse to Deir ez Zora in Rake (ki sta precej dlje stran kot 30km od turške meje), bi bilo lahko takšnih prostovoljcev še veliko več, tudi do 3 miljone, skratka to je samo še boljše.
- Pristop bo podoben kot v Efrinu, spodbujali bodo lokalno demokracijo in investirali v infrastrukturo (Beri: prišlo bo do etničnega čiščenja in arabizacije ali poturčevanja)
- Skratka, nič bat, nič ni treba storiti, Turčija bo poskrbela za vse. (With a minor genocide on top)

Fritz ::

Ekola, lepo povedano in težko kaj dodati. 8-)
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

hammock ::

Fritz je izjavil:

Ekola, lepo povedano in težko kaj dodati. 8-)

Morda se to, ce/ko bodo Turki stopili na zulj eni izmed malo bolj resnih drzav, bodo okupirani kurdski uporniki naenkrat dobili protiletalske in protitankovske rakete, pa morda se kaksno manevrirno raketo in oborozenega drona. Jemen je lep primer, Iran zalaga Huitske upornike kot veliki.

Scali bodo kri, kot Sovjeti v 80tih v Afganistanu. In prav je tako, edino civilistov mi je zal, ker bodo neizogibno nastradali ob tem. Ampak sultanu je potrebno pokazati da ni edini s palico.

Bwaze6 ::

Ampak kakšna je dejanska verjetnost državnih podpor Kurdom, ki jih po padcu ISIS nihče več ne potrebuje? Zgornji zapis Windiga je po mojem kar dobra razlaga, zakaj bo zdaj cel svet mižal na obe očesi in Turčiji pustil te "varnostne operacije". In v zahvalo Turki ne bodo poslali beguncev čez severne meje. Win - win za vse daleč naokrog (katerih beseda sploh kaj šzeje).

fikus_ ::

Poleg tega bo Erdo imela kaj početi (delati red pred svojim dvoriščem in veliki Osmanski imperij), pred domačim narodom se bo trkal po prsih (kako dobro je poskrbel za varnost), EU ga bo tiho podprla (ker je lepo "humano" poskrbel za begunce), . . .

Skratka vsi hepi.

Bwaze6 ::

Razen če bo imel Supreme Trump prehud Schadenfreude, in bo malce destabiliziral ta lep načrt genocidnega reševanja begunske krize - doing the right thing for all the wrong reasons! :))

Mr.B ::

Voljeno telo ogledalo volilnega telesa.

nsa_ag3nt ::

Koliko borcev ima Sdf na razpolago ?
https://gizmodo.com/c/goodbye-big-five

7982884e ::

uradno nekje 100 tisoc
verjetno preko polovico arabcev, ki nimajo nobene motivacije boriti se proti turski vojski (ki jo bodo sestavljali bolj izkuseni pripadniki in posebne enote) in proti islamisticnim bratom iz drugih delov sirije
mislim da tukaj ni variante da SDF nudi nek uspesen, dolgotrajen odpor, odlocajo lahko samo o tem kdaj se umaknejo, glede na mrtve civiliste

nsa_ag3nt ::

Hja, Turki imajo po oceni reuters 14k mož + redna vojska, pretežno fsa, če prav razumem
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syri...
Turkey's Demiroren news agency said Syrian rebels had traveled from northwest Syria to Turkey in preparation for the incursion. They will be based in Ceylanpinar, with 14,000 of them gradually joining the offensive.


https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tu...
The militant group, Ahrar Al-Sharqiyah, which is part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), posted a photo of their forces near Tal Abyad on Tuesday; they are reportedly awaiting orders to storm the town and expel the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).




edit
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/...
At least 18,000 fighters are due to participate in the first stage of the Turkish offensive, according to Abdelrahman Ghazi Dadeh, spokesman for Anwar al-Haq, a small faction within the FSA. Dadeh said 8,000 would target the Syrian border town of Tal Abyad and 10,000 the town of Ras al-Ain, Dadeh told journalists in Akcakale.

An undetermined number of additional fighters were also expected to be mobilised for an assault on Kobane. All three towns in northeastern Syria are controlled by the YPG.
https://gizmodo.com/c/goodbye-big-five

Zgodovina sprememb…

Fritz ::

nsa_ag3nt je izjavil:

Hja, Turki imajo po oceni reuters 14k mož + redna vojska, pretežno fsa, če prav razumem

+ turško vojaško letalstvo;
+ turški droni;
+ turška artilerija.

Brez veze karkoli ugibati, ker smo lepo videli na primeru Afrina, kako se ta zgodba konča. Kurdi bodo lastno neumnost plačali s svojimi življenji in sirskim ozemljem.
"Težav ne moremo reševati z isto miselnostjo,
kot smo jo imeli, ko smo jih ustvarili."
A. Einstein

Pac-Man ::

c3p0 je izjavil:

> The US will do nothing

Kaj pa bi US, napadla NATO članico? Vložila protestno noto, barbi style?


Ne. Pogajanja so že bila, dobili so varnostno cono in skupne patrulje na sirskem ozemlju, ampak bi Erdi po hitlerjansko še malo več. Enostavno se ne bi umaknili.
Donald je med kampanjo priznal, da ni ravno nepristranski, ker ima v Istanbulu dve stolpnici.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/conflict...

Trump made the comment in a Breitbart News interview in December 2015 during his presidential campaign when asked how he would handle Turkey and Syria.

“I have a little conflict of interest ’cause I have a major, major building in Istanbul,” Trump boasted in response. “It’s a tremendously successful job. It’s called Trump Towers — two towers, instead of one, not the usual one; it’s two. And I’ve gotten to know Turkey very well. They’re amazing people, they’re incredible people. They have a strong leader.”

He said then that the situation was “complicated,” adding, “I thrive on complicated.” Trump did not reveal what he would do in the region if he were to become commander in chief.

Trump still profits from Trump Towers in Istanbul, and the “strong leader” then was the same as now: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.




Tudi

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-offi...

Donald Trump got "rolled" by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a National Security Council source with direct knowledge of the discussions told Newsweek.

...

"President Trump was definitely out-negotiated and only endorsed the troop withdraw to make it look like we are getting something—but we are not getting something," the National Security Council source told Newsweek. "The U.S. national security has entered a state of increased danger for decades to come because the president has no spine and that's the bottom line."

Newsweek granted the National Security Council official anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The source said it would not be surprising to see a Turkish incursion in the next 24 to 96 hours.

...

According to the NSC official, who had first-hand knowledge of the phone call, Trump did not endorse any Turkish military operation against Kurdish Forces, but also did not threaten economic sanctions during the phone call if Turkey decided to undertake offensive operations.

...

Trump told Erdogan he did not want anything to do with ISIS prisoners despite the United States not currently detaining Islamic State prisoners in Syria. The Syrian Defense Forces control custody of the prisoners.
Erdogan said Turkey would take custody of the ISIS militant prisoners, according to the White House statement and the National Security Council official Newsweek spoke to for this story.
"The ISIS prisoners, some of them, will eventually be freed amongst the chaos, and remain in the area or go elsewhere to rejoin the fight," speculated the National Security Council official.


...

If the United States had refused to move out of Turkey's war path, U.S options would not just be the threat of potential conflict between nation-state militaries, it would have been applied pressure on the Turkish economy, according to the National Security Council official.
However, the United States chose not to stand its ground to protect Kurdish Forces against Turkish airstrikes as a part of Trump's "America First policy" and his historical views that war is bad for business, according to the official.

...

If Trump's withdraw of U.S. forces had not occurred, the National Security Council official told Newsweek, the United States could have continued to refine the buffer zone on the Syrian-Turkish border.
"To be honest with you, it would be better for the United States to support a Kurdish nation across Turkey, Syria and Iraq," said the National Security Council official. "It would be another Israel in the region."


...

The National Security Council official compared Turkey to "playground bullies" on Monday.
"When the bigger guy [United States] moves aside in the playground, they [Turkey] get to beat on the smaller guy [Syrian Defense Forces] and this is not about the U.S. being the world police," the National Security Council source told Newsweek.
"We are telling the world, we will use you and then throw you away," the official added. "It's not like they don't have a television in Asia, in Africa, and South America."
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
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