Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

Arestovič:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu...

...

🔥 Missile attack:

Total 33 missiles launched, 21 intercepted. In the morning Kyiv and Kharkiv were shelled by modified S-400, total 4 explosions. Then 10 Kalibr missiles and 21 winged missiles, from which 5 Kh-59 (tactical level, 200-300km) and 5 Kh-22 (600km).

One of those Kh-22 then hit an apartment building in Dnipro. 72 apartments in that section.

The interception rate is less than usual today, because 🇷🇺 attacked unusual targets. Everything launched at Kyiv was intercepted.

Ballistic missiles (S-300/S-400) weren't intercepted, their flight time is about 40 seconds, however 🇷🇺 has very few launchers and few modified missiles for land-land attacks.

This shows, 🇷🇺 russia is having shortage of accurate missiles, yet missile attacks won't stop - they will be smaller. This is a significant decrease from 100/70/50 previously.

...

🔥 Weapons:

🇺🇦 MFA Kuleba: 5 countries want to provide Leopard 2 tanks to 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
Likely 🇩🇪 Germany just doesn't want to be first to allow Main Battle Tanks to be sent to 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
🇬🇧 U.K. providing Challenger 2 tanks, other countries expressing the will to participate.

...

Leopard 2 has an excellent fire-control system, night-vision for everyone including the driver.

All western vehicles (Leopard 2, Marder, Bradley) are well equipped for night battles, much better than 🇷🇺 Russian tanks.

...

🔥 Next mobilization:

🇬🇧 U.K. intelligence reports that 🇷🇺 could draft 500k solders.

Unclear where to obtain 70k sergeants and 60k junior officers. Weapons, food, equipment, and training would be significant issues. All this in parallel with using the current 200k draftees could be too complicated for 🇷🇺 Russian military.

All this is typical 🇷🇺 Russian bluff.

Currently, a typical 🇷🇺 brigade looks like this: instead of a tank battalion, there is a tank company. Instead of 30 APCs, there are 10. Much other equipment is missing. The intensity of 🇷🇺 shelling has decreased by at least 1/3rd, ammo supplies are very limited.

...

Pac-Man je 16. jan 2023 ob 19:20 izjavil:

Ducat penzionerjem v Baškortostanu je dopizdilo, video s podnapisi:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu...

Jah, ne vem. Rabil bi jaz točno sam avto-prevesti, kaj je stari rekel. Zgleda čudno. Pritožuje se sicer nad penzijami. Do tod v redu. Dvig cen, 40, 50 in 60%. To je še v redu. Potem mu stala neke silovike, ter totalitarne režime.

Glej, to bi pa moral prevesti sam, pa se mi ne da. Ker penzioneri ponavadi ne talajo totalitarne režime. To ali je podtaknjeno, fake ali ajd, se pod nekimi zahtevami po penziji skriva politična agenda.

Zgleda mi nenaravno. Ne nemogoče, a čudno.

Upam daimaš prav, ker twitterje bolj pesimističen. Pravijo da je Soledar čisto padel in da rusi že harajo naprej.

bbbbbb2015 je 16. jan 2023 ob 20:06 izjavil:

Pri Solearju je akcija Rusov zvodenela. Niso uspeli s prebojem ne na severu, ne na jugu Soledarja. Ruski padalci še nekaj probajo skozi neke vrtove, vendar so jih Ukrajinci odbili 2x. To so ruski padalci, oni se ne mečejo pred puškine cevi.

Soledar je težko zavzeti, saj leži v kotlini oziroma je obkrožen s hribovjem. Tako da je prednost višje lokacije za branilce zelo pomembna. Ukrajinci so Soledar sicer uspeli braniti s pomočjo visokih stavb, iz katerih so nadzirali dostope. Ob umiku Ukrajincev na zahodno obrobje mesta so postavili močno obrambo, na visokih položajih. Wagnerjevcem s frontalnim napadom ne bo uspelo. Bodo spet potrebovali obkolitveni manever, kar pa zna biti v trenutni situaciji zelo zahtevno.

Rusi pravijo, da je padla Kleščivka, obkroženje Bakhmuta se bliža...

https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status...

Russian military liberated the village of Kleshcheevka near Artemovsk.
The command of the APU withdrew units from there due to heavy losses.
If Kleshcheevka was liberated, then the ticks around Bakhmut close up not only from the north, but also from the south.

Britanski minister je Commonsu povedal, da bo "pozval svoje nemške kolege", naj vsaj Poljski, Finski in drugim državam v prihodnjih dneh dovolijo ponovni izvoz nemških Leopardov 2.

V Nemčiji trenutno poteka razprava o tem, ali je tank ofenzivno ali obrambno orožje. No, odvisno od tega, za kaj ga uporabljate. Če ga uporabljate za obrambo svoje države, bi stavil, da je to obrambni orožni sistem, je Wallace dejal poslancem.

Ne pomnik kdaj sem nazadnje bral o bolj nesposobni vladi kot je nemška. Kam so padli Nemci to je res kar težko verjeti. Se niti ne čudim da je odstopila ministrica za obrambo saj drugače niti ne more biti. Nemci to namerno počnejo ali v čem je štos? In potem naj bi oni skupaj s Francozi ustvarili neko skupno Evropsko obrambo? Te se verjetno šalijo? Da je situacija še bolj komična pove naslednji članek ki je bil objavljen v medijih in sicer da bi lahko Nemci poslali Leoparde v Ukrajino vendar šele leta 2024 saj bi morali za obnovo tankov prilagoditi industrijo in to bi lahko trajalo več kot leto dni. In potem sanjajo o nekih bojnih letalih 6 generacije, to je res težko verjeti kaj se dogaja. Nemčiji je nemogoče zaupati na praktično vseh področjih.

Chalky je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:15 izjavil:

Britanski minister je Commonsu povedal, da bo "pozval svoje nemške kolege", naj vsaj Poljski, Finski in drugim državam v prihodnjih dneh dovolijo ponovni izvoz nemških Leopardov 2.

V Nemčiji trenutno poteka razprava o tem, ali je tank ofenzivno ali obrambno orožje. No, odvisno od tega, za kaj ga uporabljate. Če ga uporabljate za obrambo svoje države, bi stavil, da je to obrambni orožni sistem, je Wallace dejal poslancem.

Ne pomnik kdaj sem nazadnje bral o bolj nesposobni vladi kot je nemška. Kam so padli Nemci to je res kar težko verjeti. Se niti ne čudim da je odstopila ministrica za obrambo saj drugače niti ne more biti. Nemci to namerno počnejo ali v čem je štos? In potem naj bi oni skupaj s Francozi ustvarili neko skupno Evropsko obrambo? Te se verjetno šalijo? Da je situacija še bolj komična pove naslednji članek ki je bil objavljen v medijih in sicer da bi lahko Nemci poslali Leoparde v Ukrajino vendar šele leta 2024 saj bi morali za obnovo tankov prilagoditi industrijo in to bi lahko trajalo več kot leto dni. In potem sanjajo o nekih bojnih letalih 6 generacije, to je res težko verjeti kaj se dogaja. Nemčiji je nemogoče zaupati na praktično vseh področjih.

Preveč težav z logistiko, usposabljanjem Ukrajincev... Mogoče pa že vedo da teh par tankov ne bo obrnilo poteka vojne in nočejo slabe reklame za svoje tanke, ki bi jih Rusi uničili.

itak37 je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:24 izjavil:

Chalky je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:15 izjavil:

Britanski minister je Commonsu povedal, da bo "pozval svoje nemške kolege", naj vsaj Poljski, Finski in drugim državam v prihodnjih dneh dovolijo ponovni izvoz nemških Leopardov 2.

V Nemčiji trenutno poteka razprava o tem, ali je tank ofenzivno ali obrambno orožje. No, odvisno od tega, za kaj ga uporabljate. Če ga uporabljate za obrambo svoje države, bi stavil, da je to obrambni orožni sistem, je Wallace dejal poslancem.

Ne pomnik kdaj sem nazadnje bral o bolj nesposobni vladi kot je nemška. Kam so padli Nemci to je res kar težko verjeti. Se niti ne čudim da je odstopila ministrica za obrambo saj drugače niti ne more biti. Nemci to namerno počnejo ali v čem je štos? In potem naj bi oni skupaj s Francozi ustvarili neko skupno Evropsko obrambo? Te se verjetno šalijo? Da je situacija še bolj komična pove naslednji članek ki je bil objavljen v medijih in sicer da bi lahko Nemci poslali Leoparde v Ukrajino vendar šele leta 2024 saj bi morali za obnovo tankov prilagoditi industrijo in to bi lahko trajalo več kot leto dni. In potem sanjajo o nekih bojnih letalih 6 generacije, to je res težko verjeti kaj se dogaja. Nemčiji je nemogoče zaupati na praktično vseh področjih.

Preveč težav z logistiko, usposabljanjem Ukrajincev... Mogoče pa že vedo da teh par tankov ne bo obrnilo poteka vojne in nočejo slabe reklame za svoje tanke, ki bi jih Rusi uničili.

Naučili so jih uporabljati panzerhaubitze 2000 ne bodo jih pa mogli naučiti uporabljati Leoparde? A ti sploh razmišljaš ko pišeš?

mackilla je 16. jan 2023 ob 23:03 izjavil:

itak37 je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:24 izjavil:

Chalky je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:15 izjavil:

Britanski minister je Commonsu povedal, da bo "pozval svoje nemške kolege", naj vsaj Poljski, Finski in drugim državam v prihodnjih dneh dovolijo ponovni izvoz nemških Leopardov 2.

V Nemčiji trenutno poteka razprava o tem, ali je tank ofenzivno ali obrambno orožje. No, odvisno od tega, za kaj ga uporabljate. Če ga uporabljate za obrambo svoje države, bi stavil, da je to obrambni orožni sistem, je Wallace dejal poslancem.

Ne pomnik kdaj sem nazadnje bral o bolj nesposobni vladi kot je nemška. Kam so padli Nemci to je res kar težko verjeti. Se niti ne čudim da je odstopila ministrica za obrambo saj drugače niti ne more biti. Nemci to namerno počnejo ali v čem je štos? In potem naj bi oni skupaj s Francozi ustvarili neko skupno Evropsko obrambo? Te se verjetno šalijo? Da je situacija še bolj komična pove naslednji članek ki je bil objavljen v medijih in sicer da bi lahko Nemci poslali Leoparde v Ukrajino vendar šele leta 2024 saj bi morali za obnovo tankov prilagoditi industrijo in to bi lahko trajalo več kot leto dni. In potem sanjajo o nekih bojnih letalih 6 generacije, to je res težko verjeti kaj se dogaja. Nemčiji je nemogoče zaupati na praktično vseh področjih.

Preveč težav z logistiko, usposabljanjem Ukrajincev... Mogoče pa že vedo da teh par tankov ne bo obrnilo poteka vojne in nočejo slabe reklame za svoje tanke, ki bi jih Rusi uničili.

Naučili so jih uporabljati panzerhaubitze 2000 ne bodo jih pa mogli naučiti uporabljati Leoparde? A ti sploh razmišljaš ko pišeš?

Samohodna havbica je v principu dosti enostavnejši sistem, kot tank. Saj ne, da bi bil enostaven, ampak precej enostavnejši.
Kot verjetno veš, je največja vrednost samohodne havbice, da izstreli 2+ granat, recimo 6 ali celo 60, ter se odpelje v hipu stran.

Tank je drugo. Kot prvo, je zelo ofenzivno orožje. Tisti sovražnik na križu je 2km stran. Ali 800m stran. In meri vate.
Kot drugo, rabiš 360 stopinj awareness. Rabiš suport team, iz tanka se slabo vidi.
Kot tretje, tehnika je napeta do daske, pospešek, brezanje, levo, desno. 20km/h, 70km/h.
Kot četrto, praviloma rabiš rescue & support team. Gosenica poči, diesel crkne, imaš zastoj, municije zmanjka.
Vse to je treba natrenirat.

Recimo, tankisti iz Sirije so poročali, da če je T-72 zadel RPG v reaktivni oklep, je sicer odbil izstrelek. Je pa prišlo do spallinga. Na notranji strani je napokal oklep in potrgal neke inštalacije. Menda so bile neke cevi v enem kosu in če si to hotel zamenjati, si moral tank narazen vzeti, zamenjati in zopet sestaviti.

Če bibila tista cev v sekcijah, spojena, bi zamenjal potrgano sekcijo. In bi to bil field repair.

mackilla je 16. jan 2023 ob 23:03 izjavil:

Naučili so jih uporabljati panzerhaubitze 2000 ne bodo jih pa mogli naučiti uporabljati Leoparde? A ti sploh razmišljaš ko pišeš?

Usposabljanje za zahodne tanke normalno traja 20 tednov. Poleg tega bodo morali imeti logistiko za 3 različne vrste tankov, popravila spet na Poljskem. Najmanjši problem za Hopiumland...
Sicer so pa od začetka vojne imeli/dobili že preko 2000 tankov, ne vem zakaj se vam zdi da bo teh max 200 zahodnih tankov naredilo neko razliko.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2...

'Poisoned chalice'?
With fighting at some of its most intense between Ukrainian and Russian troops, all military gear needs to be in the best possible shape.

Leo Peria-Peigne, a weaponry expert at French think tank IFRI, said Ukraine had "a considerable pool of labour" and the structures in place to "assimilate all this diverse equipment".

Army personnel deployed near the front line can usually fix the lighter damage but heavier repairs are usually carried out further away from the fighting.

Ukraine's allies have already started organising maintenance so all newly delivered gear remains operational.

French-German defence industry firm KNDS, for example, in November opened a maintenance hub in Slovakia to repair military gear such as the Caesar howitzer artillery, Gepard anti-aircraft and Mars II multiple launch rocket systems sent to the battlefront.

But Peria-Peigne warned it would be crucial for the West to send enough tanks and armoured vehicles to Kyiv for all the training and maintenance efforts to be worth it.

"A battle tank is the most complex of military vehicles in terms of maintenance on land," he said.

Usually a third of all tanks in a battle situation are in maintenance at any one time.

"The United Kingdom sending just 10 Challenger 2 tanks would be a poisoned chalice," Peria-Peigne said.

"It would require drawing up a whole training and maintenance scheme for a very limited availability (of tanks) and therefore minimal effect on the ground."

Pac-Man je 16. jan 2023 ob 23:57 izjavil:

itak37 je 16. jan 2023 ob 23:55 izjavil:

Sicer so pa od začetka vojne imeli/dobili že preko 2000 tankov, ne vem zakaj se vam zdi da bo teh max 200 zahodnih tankov naredilo neko razliko.

Zato, ker se bo teh 200 tankov sredi noči zapodilo v ruske položaje...

Ne bi rad podcenjeval Ukrajincev, samo taktično gibanje, koordinacija napada in sam napad zahtevajo top-notch urjenje.
Če imaš na orožju zastoj, ponoči reševati to... Pa da ne streljaš na tovariša, ampak na sovražnika. Pa da se v koloni ne zaletiš. Pa tudi niso vsa vozila za nočne napade.

Pa da oceniš razdaljo v temi in ustrezno nameriš. Pa da ponoči najdeš pravo municijo v škatli in jo odpreš.

To je zelo zahtevno.

Ja, zaenkrat je šla ruska mobilizacija dvakrat kar neopazno mimo. Sicer pa v tretje gre rado pravijo

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1...
In early January, Russia will close the borders and announce a new wave of mobilization, - Reznikov

https://twitter.com/KorsasErik/status/1...

On January 15, additional #mobilization may be announced in #Russia, - #GUR.

Up to 500,000 #Russians will be #mobilized. This time it will also be concentrated in major #Russian #cities such as #Moscow and #StPetersburg.

itak37 je 17. jan 2023 ob 07:24 izjavil:

Ja, zaenkrat je šla ruska mobilizacija dvakrat kar neopazno mimo. Sicer pa v tretje gre rado pravijo

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1...
In early January, Russia will close the borders and announce a new wave of mobilization, - Reznikov

https://twitter.com/KorsasErik/status/1...

On January 15, additional #mobilization may be announced in #Russia, - #GUR.

Up to 500,000 #Russians will be #mobilized. This time it will also be concentrated in major #Russian #cities such as #Moscow and #StPetersburg.

Dvakrat je šla ruska mobilizacija mimo neopazno? A pol nisi videl kolon Rusov,ki so bežali v Kazahstan? Sicer je res že skrajni čas,da dobijo porcijo tudi previvalci Moskve in Petersburga. Do zdaj so umirali po večini sibirski siromaki in manjšine.

itak37 je 17. jan 2023 ob 07:57 izjavil:

Ta dva mobilizacijska vala 5.1 in 15.1 sem zamudil. Ali so bile to spet kake ukrajinske 4D šahovske poteze?

A po tvojih telegram informacijah ne bodo več mobilizirali? Fajn.

itak37 je 17. jan 2023 ob 07:57 izjavil:

Ta dva mobilizacijska vala 5.1 in 15.1 sem zamudil. Ali so bile to spet kake ukrajinske 4D šahovske poteze?

Dodatna mobilizacija ni nobena skrivnost. Vse je bilo zapisano že 21. septembra.

Decree
Shortly after Putin's speech, an official decree was published enacting the announced mobilization:[49][50]

1. Declare partial mobilization in the Russian Federation from 21 September 2022.
2. Carry out the call-up of citizens of the Russian Federation for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service by mobilization have the status of military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under a contract.
3. Establish that the level of pay for citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service for mobilization into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation corresponds to the level of pay for military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under a contract.
4. Contracts for military service concluded by military personnel continue to be valid until the end of the period of partial mobilization, with the exception of cases of dismissal of military personnel from military service on the grounds established by this Decree.
5. Establish during the period of partial mobilization the following grounds for the dismissal from military service of military personnel undergoing military service under a contract, as well as citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:
by age – upon reaching the age limit for military service;
for health reasons – in connection with their recognition by the military medical commission as unfit for military service, with the exception of military personnel who have expressed a desire to continue military service in military positions that can be replaced by the specified military personnel;
in connection with the entry into force of a court verdict on the imposition of a sentence of imprisonment.
6. To the Government of the Russian Federation:
to finance activities for partial mobilization;
take the necessary measures to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies during the period of partial mobilization.
7. For official use only (classified)[51]
8. The highest officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation shall ensure the conscription of citizens for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the number and within the time limits determined by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
9. Grant citizens of the Russian Federation working in organizations of the military-industrial complex the right to deferment from conscription for military service for mobilization (for the period of work in these organizations). The categories of citizens of the Russian Federation who are granted the right to deferment and the procedure for granting it are determined by the Government of the Russian Federation.
10. This Decree shall enter into force on the day of its official publication.[5]

Point 7
Point number 7 of the decree is classified. In the public version of the decree posted on Russian government websites, point 7 was not available and was marked as "for official use."[52][53] Peskov told press that the classified clause referred to the number of reservists who could be called up for military service.[3]

The banned opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta, operating in exile, reported on September 22, 2022, that the classified point 7 gives the Defense Department permission to mobilize up to one million men.[54][55] Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied this, calling the reports "a lie."[3] On September 23, 2022, a source close to one of Russia's federal ministries told Meduza that 1.2 million people were going to be conscripted.[56][57] Peskov also denied this.[58]

2022 Russian mobilization @ Wikipedia

mackilla je 17. jan 2023 ob 08:31 izjavil:

itak37 je 17. jan 2023 ob 08:24 izjavil:

Nič ne omenjajo, za razliko od ukrajinskega obrambnega ministra, ki je napovedal rusko mobilizacijo 5.1 in ukrajinske GUR, ki je napovedala rusko mobilizacijo 15.1.

Smo pa orki malo zaskrbljeni za psihično stanje Zelenskega.

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/sta...

Se pravi,da ne bo več mobilizacije ali so Ukrajinci samo zgrešili datum? Kaj pravijo tvoji interni viri? Ne da se mi iskati ampak obstaja kolaž posnetkov kako je putinova glava vedno bolj zabuhla. Če te zanima si jo lahko poiščeš.

Kot sem že napovedal, moji viri nič ne omenjajo dodatne mobilizacije, ni pa izključena seveda.
Za razliko od ukrajinskih uradnih virov, ki se smešijo z napovedmi ruske mobilizacije, ki se potem ne uresničijo.

fur80 je 17. jan 2023 ob 08:30 izjavil:

Chalky je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:15 izjavil:

Britanski minister je Commonsu povedal, da bo "pozval svoje nemške kolege", naj vsaj Poljski, Finski in drugim državam v prihodnjih dneh dovolijo ponovni izvoz nemških Leopardov 2.

V Nemčiji trenutno poteka razprava o tem, ali je tank ofenzivno ali obrambno orožje. No, odvisno od tega, za kaj ga uporabljate. Če ga uporabljate za obrambo svoje države, bi stavil, da je to obrambni orožni sistem, je Wallace dejal poslancem.

Ne pomnik kdaj sem nazadnje bral o bolj nesposobni vladi kot je nemška. Kam so padli Nemci to je res kar težko verjeti. Se niti ne čudim da je odstopila ministrica za obrambo saj drugače niti ne more biti. Nemci to namerno počnejo ali v čem je štos? In potem naj bi oni skupaj s Francozi ustvarili neko skupno Evropsko obrambo? Te se verjetno šalijo? Da je situacija še bolj komična pove naslednji članek ki je bil objavljen v medijih in sicer da bi lahko Nemci poslali Leoparde v Ukrajino vendar šele leta 2024 saj bi morali za obnovo tankov prilagoditi industrijo in to bi lahko trajalo več kot leto dni. In potem sanjajo o nekih bojnih letalih 6 generacije, to je res težko verjeti kaj se dogaja. Nemčiji je nemogoče zaupati na praktično vseh področjih.

Nemci, Avtrijci pa Švicarji to so taki skopuhi, da glava peče, take stvari a bodo dali tanke, kdaj bo urjenje in koliko tankov bodo zrihtali v NATO to bi ja moralo biti takoj znano, plan pa bi morali imeti za 4 leta vojne v naprej, kje bodo delali oržje,... sicer pomoje imajo, pa nam servirajo tako, da se zmede Ruse, ker tako improviziranje pa je naravnost smešno, ampak ker so tu zadaj Nemci, Avtrijci pa Švicarji, se bojim da so se vsrali.
Stoltenberg od NATA obljubla pomoč in orožje za zmago! Stari, če neboš zaj zrihtal 500 top tankov, HIMARSE, letala, helikopterje in municije za 1 leto, potem naj bo raje tiho!
Vseeno pa upam, da je to šov za Ruse in ima NATO plan.

Pri Bakhmutu in Soledarju pa upajmo, da se delajo Ukrajinci šibke in bodo vdarili proti Melitopolu in pripravljajo presenečenje.

Zanimiv intervju nemškega generala, bivšega svetovalca nemške vlade in parlamenta. Dejansko priznava da je vojna v Ukrajini izgubljena in da tudi tanki in oklepniki tega ne bodo spremenili. Verjetno je tudi Scholz to pogruntal, zato pa zdaj zganjajo te burke z oklepniki.

https://www.emma.de/artikel/erich-vad-w...
John Helmer povzema:
http://johnhelmer.net/german-general-te...

Vad’s self-advertisements mention no active service or combat command. Instead, he has filled advisor posts at the Bundestag (2000-2006) and the Chancellery (2006-2013) when Angela Merkel was chancellor. Since 2014 he has been selling his advice either through Vad’s own consulting firm in Munich or a Swiss intermediary company in Zurich.

In his latest press statement, dated January 13, 2023, Vad has warned that the Scholz government’s decision to supply the German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, in a joint rearmament plan with the US and France, “is a military escalation, also in the perception of the Russians, even if the 40-year old Marder is not a miracle weapon. We go on a slide. This could develop a momentum of its own that we can no longer control.”

Vad means the war in the Ukraine has already passed the point at which the US and German military believe they can control the outcome. “Now the consequences must be finally be considered” – this is Vad’s acknowledgement the war against Russia is being lost in the Ukraine.

Asked what “consequences” he means,Vad has replied with rhetorical questions: “Do they want to reconquer Donbass or Crimea? Or do they even want to defeat Russia completely?” Vad was identifying the goals of the civilian leaders in Berlin and in the State Department.

“We have a military operational stalemate, but we cannot resolve it militarily”, he noted, adding “this is also the opinion of the American Chief of Staff Mark Milley.” What Vad was implying was not “stalemate” but defeat – defeat by the Russian Army of the war allies in the Ukraine, including all the NATO reinforcements and operational plans. Those, Vad has dismissed: “There is no realistic end-state definition”.

He has then attacked the Green Party ministers in the German ruling coalition — explicitly Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and implicitly Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. “I am glad that we finally have a [eine female] foreign minister in Germany, but it is not enough to just engage in war rhetoric and walk around Kiev or the Donbass with helmets and flak vests… I do not understand the Green’s mutation from a pacifist to a war party. I myself don’t know of any Green who has even done military service…The fact that a single party has so much political influence that it can manoeuvre us into a war is worrying.”.

Vad also attacked Scholz. Asked if he were his military adviser, what advice would he have given in February 2022. “I would have advised him to support Ukraine militarily, but in a measured and prudent manner in order to avoid the effect of sliding into a war party. And I would have advised him to influence our most important politically ally. Because the key to a solution to the war lies in Washington and Moscow.”

Vad repeated this message. “The key to resolving the conflict does not lie in Kiev, nor does it lie in Berlin, Brussels or Paris.” Vad’s interviewer didn’t notice the German general had not included London, and was ignoring the British in NATO and in their “special relationship” with the US.

Vad was also attempting to appeal to the Pentagon to save the situation. General Milley, Vad said, “has spoken an inconvenient truth. A truth that, by the way, was hardly published in the German media…. What is being waged in Ukraine is a war of attrition… This strategy did not work militarily then [1914-18] – and will not do so today”. To his German audience, Vad was also reminding them of the threats to German economic survival and political independence which followed the armistice of November 1918 and terms of the Versailles peace treaty of June 1919, and then led into World War II.

He then attacked the Scholz coalition for propagandizing the older German war aim without the military capacity to implement it against the Russian forces. “Military experts [and those] who know what is going on among the secret services, what it looks like on the ground and what war really means – are largely excluded from the [German public] debate. They do not fit in with the formation of media opinion. We are largely experiencing a coordination of the media, the likes of which I have never experienced before in the Federal Republic.”

Vad was implying there had been a stronger resistance to the war policies of Adolf Hitler and Joseph Goebbels, but not now against Baerbock, Habeck, or Scholz. “[From the German press] this is pure propaganda. And not on behalf of the state, as is known from totalitarian regimes but out of pure self-empowerment.”

“The Greens, FDP [Free Democratic Party] and the bourgeois opposition – flanked by largely unanimous media – are exerting such pressure that the chancellor can hardly resist it.”

Their war against Russia, Vad is warning, is not only lost in the Ukraine. It is threatening to destroy Germany in “a Third World War. And that’s exactly what doesn’t get into the minds of politicians and journalists here in Germany!”

“Germany is and remains an endangered nation”, Vad declared, adding that only the Americans can save the Germans from themselves now. “I myself am a convinced transatlanticist. I tell you honestly, when in doubt, I would rather live under American hegemony than under Russian or Chinese hegemony.”

He then revealed what he, his allies in the German General Staff and in German business circles want the Pentagon to negotiate with the Kremlin before the Russian Army advances to “the further destruction of Ukraine. What is left of this country? It is razed to the ground.”

“It is true that we must signal to the Russians: this far and no further!” How far across Ukrainian territory is that — Vad wasn’t asked and didn’t say. Nor did he disclose the terms which he and his German and US associates think can be negotiated in an agreement with Moscow against the resumption of the war against Russia in future. In fact, he doesn’t abandon the US-German war against Russian “hegemony” at all.

According to Vad, if the Pentagon concedes Russia’s “very specific geopolitical interests in the Black Sea region”, if the Donbass and Crimea remain Russian, “the territorial integrity of Ukraine would have to be restored, with certain Western guarantees. And the Russians also need such a security guarantee”. Exactly what “guarantee” can be negotiated after Merkel and ex-French President Francois Hollande have admitted their deception planning, Vad hasn’t advised, at least not in public.

“The West can send 100 Marders and 100 Leopards – they do not change the overall military situation. And the all-important question is how to deal with such a conflict with a belligerent nuclear power – mind you, the strongest nuclear power in the world! – without going into a Third World War. And that’s exactly what doesn’t get into the minds of politicians and journalists here in Germany!”


Garland Nixon tudi pokomentira:

itak37 je 17. jan 2023 ob 08:55 izjavil:

fur80 je 17. jan 2023 ob 08:30 izjavil:

Chalky je 16. jan 2023 ob 22:15 izjavil:

Britanski minister je Commonsu povedal, da bo "pozval svoje nemške kolege", naj vsaj Poljski, Finski in drugim državam v prihodnjih dneh dovolijo ponovni izvoz nemških Leopardov 2.

V Nemčiji trenutno poteka razprava o tem, ali je tank ofenzivno ali obrambno orožje. No, odvisno od tega, za kaj ga uporabljate. Če ga uporabljate za obrambo svoje države, bi stavil, da je to obrambni orožni sistem, je Wallace dejal poslancem.

Ne pomnik kdaj sem nazadnje bral o bolj nesposobni vladi kot je nemška. Kam so padli Nemci to je res kar težko verjeti. Se niti ne čudim da je odstopila ministrica za obrambo saj drugače niti ne more biti. Nemci to namerno počnejo ali v čem je štos? In potem naj bi oni skupaj s Francozi ustvarili neko skupno Evropsko obrambo? Te se verjetno šalijo? Da je situacija še bolj komična pove naslednji članek ki je bil objavljen v medijih in sicer da bi lahko Nemci poslali Leoparde v Ukrajino vendar šele leta 2024 saj bi morali za obnovo tankov prilagoditi industrijo in to bi lahko trajalo več kot leto dni. In potem sanjajo o nekih bojnih letalih 6 generacije, to je res težko verjeti kaj se dogaja. Nemčiji je nemogoče zaupati na praktično vseh področjih.

Nemci, Avtrijci pa Švicarji to so taki skopuhi, da glava peče, take stvari a bodo dali tanke, kdaj bo urjenje in koliko tankov bodo zrihtali v NATO to bi ja moralo biti takoj znano, plan pa bi morali imeti za 4 leta vojne v naprej, kje bodo delali oržje,... sicer pomoje imajo, pa nam servirajo tako, da se zmede Ruse, ker tako improviziranje pa je naravnost smešno, ampak ker so tu zadaj Nemci, Avtrijci pa Švicarji, se bojim da so se vsrali.
Stoltenberg od NATA obljubla pomoč in orožje za zmago! Stari, če neboš zaj zrihtal 500 top tankov, HIMARSE, letala, helikopterje in municije za 1 leto, potem naj bo raje tiho!
Vseeno pa upam, da je to šov za Ruse in ima NATO plan.

Pri Bakhmutu in Soledarju pa upajmo, da se delajo Ukrajinci šibke in bodo vdarili proti Melitopolu in pripravljajo presenečenje.

Zanimiv intervju nemškega generala, bivšega svetovalca nemške vlade in parlamenta. Dejansko priznava da je vojna v Ukrajini izgubljena in da tudi tanki in oklepniki tega ne bodo spremenili. Verjetno je tudi Scholz to pogruntal, zato pa zdaj zganjajo te burke z oklepniki.

https://www.emma.de/artikel/erich-vad-w...
John Helmer povzema:
http://johnhelmer.net/german-general-te...

Vad’s self-advertisements mention no active service or combat command. Instead, he has filled advisor posts at the Bundestag (2000-2006) and the Chancellery (2006-2013) when Angela Merkel was chancellor. Since 2014 he has been selling his advice either through Vad’s own consulting firm in Munich or a Swiss intermediary company in Zurich.

In his latest press statement, dated January 13, 2023, Vad has warned that the Scholz government’s decision to supply the German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, in a joint rearmament plan with the US and France, “is a military escalation, also in the perception of the Russians, even if the 40-year old Marder is not a miracle weapon. We go on a slide. This could develop a momentum of its own that we can no longer control.”

Vad means the war in the Ukraine has already passed the point at which the US and German military believe they can control the outcome. “Now the consequences must be finally be considered” – this is Vad’s acknowledgement the war against Russia is being lost in the Ukraine.

Asked what “consequences” he means,Vad has replied with rhetorical questions: “Do they want to reconquer Donbass or Crimea? Or do they even want to defeat Russia completely?” Vad was identifying the goals of the civilian leaders in Berlin and in the State Department.

“We have a military operational stalemate, but we cannot resolve it militarily”, he noted, adding “this is also the opinion of the American Chief of Staff Mark Milley.” What Vad was implying was not “stalemate” but defeat – defeat by the Russian Army of the war allies in the Ukraine, including all the NATO reinforcements and operational plans. Those, Vad has dismissed: “There is no realistic end-state definition”.

He has then attacked the Green Party ministers in the German ruling coalition — explicitly Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and implicitly Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. “I am glad that we finally have a [eine female] foreign minister in Germany, but it is not enough to just engage in war rhetoric and walk around Kiev or the Donbass with helmets and flak vests… I do not understand the Green’s mutation from a pacifist to a war party. I myself don’t know of any Green who has even done military service…The fact that a single party has so much political influence that it can manoeuvre us into a war is worrying.”.

Vad also attacked Scholz. Asked if he were his military adviser, what advice would he have given in February 2022. “I would have advised him to support Ukraine militarily, but in a measured and prudent manner in order to avoid the effect of sliding into a war party. And I would have advised him to influence our most important politically ally. Because the key to a solution to the war lies in Washington and Moscow.”

Vad repeated this message. “The key to resolving the conflict does not lie in Kiev, nor does it lie in Berlin, Brussels or Paris.” Vad’s interviewer didn’t notice the German general had not included London, and was ignoring the British in NATO and in their “special relationship” with the US.

Vad was also attempting to appeal to the Pentagon to save the situation. General Milley, Vad said, “has spoken an inconvenient truth. A truth that, by the way, was hardly published in the German media…. What is being waged in Ukraine is a war of attrition… This strategy did not work militarily then [1914-18] – and will not do so today”. To his German audience, Vad was also reminding them of the threats to German economic survival and political independence which followed the armistice of November 1918 and terms of the Versailles peace treaty of June 1919, and then led into World War II.

He then attacked the Scholz coalition for propagandizing the older German war aim without the military capacity to implement it against the Russian forces. “Military experts [and those] who know what is going on among the secret services, what it looks like on the ground and what war really means – are largely excluded from the [German public] debate. They do not fit in with the formation of media opinion. We are largely experiencing a coordination of the media, the likes of which I have never experienced before in the Federal Republic.”

Vad was implying there had been a stronger resistance to the war policies of Adolf Hitler and Joseph Goebbels, but not now against Baerbock, Habeck, or Scholz. “[From the German press] this is pure propaganda. And not on behalf of the state, as is known from totalitarian regimes but out of pure self-empowerment.”

“The Greens, FDP [Free Democratic Party] and the bourgeois opposition – flanked by largely unanimous media – are exerting such pressure that the chancellor can hardly resist it.”

Their war against Russia, Vad is warning, is not only lost in the Ukraine. It is threatening to destroy Germany in “a Third World War. And that’s exactly what doesn’t get into the minds of politicians and journalists here in Germany!”

“Germany is and remains an endangered nation”, Vad declared, adding that only the Americans can save the Germans from themselves now. “I myself am a convinced transatlanticist. I tell you honestly, when in doubt, I would rather live under American hegemony than under Russian or Chinese hegemony.”

He then revealed what he, his allies in the German General Staff and in German business circles want the Pentagon to negotiate with the Kremlin before the Russian Army advances to “the further destruction of Ukraine. What is left of this country? It is razed to the ground.”

“It is true that we must signal to the Russians: this far and no further!” How far across Ukrainian territory is that — Vad wasn’t asked and didn’t say. Nor did he disclose the terms which he and his German and US associates think can be negotiated in an agreement with Moscow against the resumption of the war against Russia in future. In fact, he doesn’t abandon the US-German war against Russian “hegemony” at all.

According to Vad, if the Pentagon concedes Russia’s “very specific geopolitical interests in the Black Sea region”, if the Donbass and Crimea remain Russian, “the territorial integrity of Ukraine would have to be restored, with certain Western guarantees. And the Russians also need such a security guarantee”. Exactly what “guarantee” can be negotiated after Merkel and ex-French President Francois Hollande have admitted their deception planning, Vad hasn’t advised, at least not in public.

“The West can send 100 Marders and 100 Leopards – they do not change the overall military situation. And the all-important question is how to deal with such a conflict with a belligerent nuclear power – mind you, the strongest nuclear power in the world! – without going into a Third World War. And that’s exactly what doesn’t get into the minds of politicians and journalists here in Germany!”


Garland Nixon tudi pokomentira:

Tem Nemcem in njihovim analizam ne verjemi nič, oni so kupljeni z ruskim denarjem, da vlivajo nezaupanje v Ukrajino, je bilo že 100X razloženo, v Nemčiji je veliko ruskih državljanov in plačancev, ki organizirajo proteste in PR za Ruse. Poglej kej dela njihov prejšnji PV vlade in kje bi najbrž delala tudi Merklca.

Kakih 100 tankov, če Zahod ni sposoben dati Ukrajincem 1000 tankov potem tako brezveze.

sirotka je 17. jan 2023 ob 09:03 izjavil:

Do tle in nič dlje? Se pravi lahko vzame nazaj svojo polovico Berlina?

“It is true that we must signal to the Russians: this far and no further!” How far across Ukrainian territory is that — Vad wasn’t asked and didn’t say. Nor did he disclose the terms which he and his German and US associates think can be negotiated in an agreement with Moscow against the resumption of the war against Russia in future. In fact, he doesn’t abandon the US-German war against Russian “hegemony” at all.

Sicer pa tip bluzi že od začetka vojne, verjetno je en izmed mnogih na plačilni listi Kremlja:

On February 24, 2022, Vad told a political talk show Maybrit Illner special on the prospects of resisting the invasion: "Militarily it's done. And my assessment is that it will only be a matter of a few days and no more.” But this only applies if Putin “does not take the step to western Ukraine”. Then "massive resistance can be expected." In this case, there could be a protracted "Afghanistan-style guerrilla war." [11] "Putin will win this war because the Russian armed forces are modern, well-equipped, because they also have multiple superiorities, because they have a strategic base against which one simply cannot defend oneself," Vad stated at the beginning of the war .[12]

On March 7, 2022, Vad said in the ZDF morning show that the Ukrainian troops had no prospect of permanently asserting themselves against the Russian troops. From a military perspective, it makes more sense to "pull the Ukrainian resistance to western Ukraine," where supplies are easier. Fight for cities like Kievwere purely symbolic. The Russian strategy in the Ukraine war is to encircle the large urban centers and let many refugees out. "The Russians go into these cities selectively to neutralize buildings important to the government and military infrastructure." This is the Russian strategy, which they are taking their time with. When asked if the Russian convoy, which was more than 60 kilometers long, was stuck outside Kyiv, Vad's answer was: "It's not stuck. You can actually see that the Russians feel very safe. [...] And I think these columns have the forces that they ultimately need for this fight for Kyiv. The government is based in Kyiv, as well as the country's military leadership, the secret service headquarters, the important communication points,[13] A few days later, the convoy broke up and Russia withdrew its forces completely from the Kiev area in order to relocate them to eastern Ukraine. [14]

In April 2022, Vad assumed that the destruction of the Mariupol maternity hospital "was not Putin's intention" and compared the deaths of civilians in the Ukraine war to wars like Iraq , Libya and Afghanistan , where there is always so-called collateral damage . [15] [16]

After his misjudgment at the start of the attack, he admitted: “The Ukrainians have proven that they have effectively defended their capital Kyiv and, moreover, are waging a successful defensive struggle against a superior opponent. The Russians, in turn, have gained some land in the east and on the Black Sea coast.” [17] He therefore considered a “face-saving” solution for both sides in the Ukraine war to be possible. He spoke out against the delivery of heavy weapons. These are potentially a "path to the Third World War". Systems such as the Leopard battle tank or the Marder infantry fighting vehicle can only be used after years of training [18] - an assessment by GeneralKlaus Wittmann was decisively contradicted. [19]

Vad considered it impossible that heavy battle tanks could be brought to the east of Ukraine at all, the Russians would militarily prevent this: "It has no military relevance if we deliver heavy weapons now. This is a phantom debate.” [20]

At the end of May he denied the Ukrainian army's ability to reconquer larger territories (see Ukrainian counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine ). [21] Russia will conquer the entire coast of Ukraine including Odessa and establish a land connection to Transnistria. [22]

In mid-July 2022, he contradicted different assessments of the situation [23] with the assessment that the Russian attackers had “clear logistical advantages” and an “escalation dominance” and could “push any number of soldiers, main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, aircraft” from southern Russia. In practice, the Russians controlled both the Ukrainian coast with a naval blockade and the “entire space” in the air. One must now negotiate quickly, otherwise the Russians would no longer have any reason for negotiations given their foreseeable victory. At best, Ukraine would have a chance in a sustained guerrilla war. [24] On September 9 he said in an interview with n-tv, despite isolated successes in Ukraine, the Russians had the overall situation in the war firmly under control. Even the delivery of more complex weapons would not change that much. [25]

On November 7, he stated on n-tv that the battle for Cherson would continue for a long time, both sides were in a stalemate [26] . Two days later, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announced that Cherson would be abandoned [27] .


On November 10, Vad did not assess the announced withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson as a defeat for Putin, but as a "regrouping" in order to be able to occupy better defensive positions. He spoke out in favor of humanitarian aid and against arms deliveries. The withdrawal would provide an opportunity for negotiations. [28]

Vad's repeated misjudgments were discussed on various occasions. The online magazine for media criticism , Übermedien , referred in detail to Vad's "spectacular false forecasts". [29] Sascha Lehnartz mockingly commented on WELT.de Vad's previous assessment that there would be weeks of fighting in Cherson with the recommendation to generally consider the opposite of what Vad assumed to be likely: "If Vad were a howitzer, it would he could miss the Zugspitze from a distance of 200 meters with this accuracy.” [30]

In January 2023, in the magazine Emma , ​​Vad described arms deliveries without a political-strategic concept as "pure militarism" and demanded that "this pointless activism in German politics" finally come to an end. He is also experiencing a “media synchronization” in Germany. [31]

Glede na njegove nebuloze, sploh ni vreden omembe.

Kot,da to ni dovolj prilepi zraven še komentarje novinarja Johna Helmerja,ki živi v Rusiji od leta 1989.

fur80 je 17. jan 2023 ob 09:06 izjavil:

Kakih 100 tankov, če Zahod ni sposoben dati Ukrajincem 1000 tankov potem tako brezveze.

Očitno je problem že sploh kak Leopard dat Ukrajincem, zaenkrat je potrjenih samo 14 Challengerjev 2.

itak37 je 17. jan 2023 ob 09:12 izjavil:

fur80 je 17. jan 2023 ob 09:06 izjavil:

Kakih 100 tankov, če Zahod ni sposoben dati Ukrajincem 1000 tankov potem tako brezveze.

Očitno je problem že sploh kak Leopard dat Ukrajincem, zaenkrat je potrjenih samo 14 Challengerjev 2.

Ne skrbi. Verjetno bodo na koncu vsi poljski leopardi prispeli v Ukrajino. Seveda ne naenkrat. Verjemi mi,da je ta napoved bolj verjetna kot zadeve,ki jih ti limaš.

Srbi res furajo čisto prorusko propagando:

https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/statu...

... a so res tako odvisni od Rusov?

Nemci morajo dovoliti, da gredo njihovi tanki v Ukrajino. Ne moreš ti kar tako prosto razpolagati z orožjem, ki si ga kupil. Saj pri ameriškem orožju velja isto.

Pač varovalka, da lastno orožje ni na koncu uporabljeno proti tebi.

Zaenkrat nemci dovoljenja še niso dali...

Invictus je 17. jan 2023 ob 10:42 izjavil:

Nemci morajo dovoliti, da gredo njihovi tanki v Ukrajino. Ne moreš ti kar tako prosto razpolagati z orožjem, ki si ga kupil. Saj pri ameriškem orožju velja isto.

Pač varovalka, da lastno orožje ni na koncu uporabljeno proti tebi.

Zaenkrat nemci dovoljenja še niso dali...

Zato pa "Švabov" nobeden več resno ne jemlje! Verjetno še niso preboleli, da so morali plačevati odškodnino tem državam po ww2. ;)
the Japanese Prime Minister recently met with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the Tower of London, where they signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement, which the UK Government describes as the “most significant defence agreement between the two countries in more than a century”.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain...