Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

We now have further confirmations regarding ukrainian 🇺🇦 counter-attacks near Pokrovsk'e

After weeks of mechanized assaults under strict OPSEC, we now have additionnal informations. Ukrainian forces didn't only push into the grey zone but also few kilometers behind it, into territories under russian control since october.

Ukrainian forces took back control of most of the 2024 defensive line, which lies 12km south of Pokrovsk'e, the regional hub. Some videos of russian strikes on ukrainian armoured vehicles happened furthur south of the line, especially south of Verbove (here : 47.836979,36.374613) or in Berezove (47.873421, 36.510356).

Again, this doesn't mean Ukraine controls these areas, since we do not have enough proofs to say that. However, we can at least be sure that most of the grey zone between the Vovocha river and the defensive line has been cleared. The images that we are seing are probably few days old so we shouldn't jumlp to any conclusion. These days, Russia reinforced Uspenivka and Temyrivka.

This progress into grey zone and russian controled territory will probably allow ukrainian engineering forces to further reinforce the Pokrovsk'e defensive line, especially on the Ternuvate-Pokrovsk'e road. This town is highly strategic and must hold to avoid any spread of the russian offensive further in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, especially in Vassylivka and Pavlohrad directions.

However, if the situation significantly improved for Pokrovsk'e, the situation west of Hulialpole is getting more difficult. They grey zone is expanding and russian troops are now often seen inside Zaliznychne. This, added to my recent airstrike/artillery impacts analysis proves that Russia is willing to push behind the strategic town of Orikhiv this year, while Ukraine is trying to slow down the russians in the Zaporizhzhia direction. I guess they believe Orikhiv will be lost one day, this is the reason why they are mainly digging behind.