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Austerity

Austerity

moj_nick ::

In a 2010 paper Carmen Reinhart, now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School, and Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, seemed to provide an answer. They argued that GDP growth slows to a snail’s pace once government-debt levels exceed 90% of GDP
vir



Herndon pulled up an Excel spreadsheet containing Reinhart's data and quickly spotted something that looked odd.

"I clicked on cell L51, and saw that they had only averaged rows 30 through 44, instead of rows 30 through 49."

What Herndon had discovered was that by making a sloppy computing error, Reinhart and Rogoff had forgotten to include a critical piece of data about countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios that would have affected their overall calculations.

vir

Torej so vsi varčevalni ukrepi posledica računske napake?
110111001001010001010000

A. Smith ::

Ne, niso. Odkritih je bilo nekaj napak, ki pa ne ovržejo rezultata raziskave.

The controversy does not much affect important parts of Profs Reinhart and Rogoff's work, such as their research on the previously understated risk of default for heavily indebted nations - something that has befallen a large number of countries in the past few hundred years.

The Amherst researchers, in their vicious review, did find some errors in the maths underlying Prof Reinhart and Prof Rogoff's warning about the precipitous decline in economic growth associated with debt ratios of more than 90 per cent. But one cannot read their analysis and then conclude that the case for austerity - and a tough line on debt - is much weakened.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2df58ce0-a8ba...
"Be professional, be polite,
but have a plan to kill everyone you meet".
- General James Mattis

celada ::

A. Smith je izjavil:

Ne, niso. Odkritih je bilo nekaj napak, ki pa ne ovržejo rezultata raziskave.

The controversy does not much affect important parts of Profs Reinhart and Rogoff's work, such as their research on the previously understated risk of default for heavily indebted nations - something that has befallen a large number of countries in the past few hundred years.

The Amherst researchers, in their vicious review, did find some errors in the maths underlying Prof Reinhart and Prof Rogoff's warning about the precipitous decline in economic growth associated with debt ratios of more than 90 per cent. But one cannot read their analysis and then conclude that the case for austerity - and a tough line on debt - is much weakened.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2df58ce0-a8ba...


Njun argument je bil, da države z visokim dolgom imajo počasnejšo rast, ko so šli drugi ljudje čez to so pokazali, da to ni res. Kolikor sem jaz bral napake niso male in kar krepko zrušijo njuno hipotezo.
Asus p5q-pro, 1,5 TB Segate Baraccuda , Sapphire Ati radeon 4850
Core 2 Duo E8400 4Gb rama

moj_nick ::

A. Smith je izjavil:

Ne, niso. Odkritih je bilo nekaj napak, ki pa ne ovržejo rezultata raziskave.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2df58ce0-a8ba...


Žal ne morem mimo paywalla. Iz prvega linka je tudi tale graf:

Sicer pri obeh raziskavah pokaže korelacijo med gospodarsko rastjo in zadolženostjo, ni pa v drugi raziskavi drastičnega zmanjšanja pri 90%, ki naj bi bilo povod za vsesplošno varčevanje.
110111001001010001010000

LordNacho ::

Res je, da tistih 90% ni nikakršna magična meja - pravzaprav sploh ni nobene takšne meje.
Kar se je potrebno zavedati je, da to ne pomeni, da je kakršnokoli zadolževanje dobro za gospodarsko rast. Prav nasprotno.

Gandalfar ::



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