Zakaj so električni avtomobili prava stvar

J.McLane je 8. nov 2018 ob 16:10 izjavil:

Vidiš, vidiš, če si sam tudi v SUV

Gregor P je 8. nov 2018 ob 16:06 izjavil:

Bi bilo res super, če bi bilo s tem te oboroževalne tekme na cestah konec

telexdell je 8. nov 2018 ob 11:52 izjavil:

Trditev, da se EV napajajo zgolj iz TE je najmanj neresna, če že ne slaboumna.

telexdell je 8. nov 2018 ob 11:52 izjavil:

PS- kaj pa novi porabniki-mobilni telefoni, pomivalni stroji, toplotne črpalke, računalniki...katere uporabljajo mladi, starejši jih pa niso. Ti nič ne doprinesejo k povečani rabi elektrike?

RedDrake je 8. nov 2018 ob 12:51 izjavil:

Če računamo okoli 1,2mio vozil v SLO, to pomeni da, ko bo delež recimo 5% bo to že 36.000.000 EUR manj v "tošeljčku".
A mislite, da bo država to mirno gledala?

DamijanD je 9. nov 2018 ob 07:24 izjavil:

RedDrake je 8. nov 2018 ob 12:51 izjavil:

Če računamo okoli 1,2mio vozil v SLO, to pomeni da, ko bo delež recimo 5% bo to že 36.000.000 EUR manj v "tošeljčku".
A mislite, da bo država to mirno gledala?

Tukaj bi bilo lepo tudi upoštevat (če se sploh da), koliko manj bo šlo za zdravstvo, če bo v mestih zrak zaradi EVjev čistejši...

WarpedGone je 9. nov 2018 ob 07:50 izjavil:

Unknown_001 je 9. nov 2018 ob 14:09 izjavil:

Zadnč sem te Ioniqje s polno naloženim kombijem šišal čez višnjegorski klanec.

To so tumorji na cesti, vam povem.

J.McLane je 9. nov 2018 ob 14:55 izjavil:

Proti LJ so itak 3 pasovi in znak za priporočeno hitrost 110 kmh (google maps iz leta 2013). Res mini jasno koliko imajo nekateri problemov z drugimi na cesti.

s1m0n je 9. nov 2018 ob 17:46 izjavil:

Pa tudi poceni ni! Ta, ki sem ga jaz imel priložnost videt je lastnika prišel 42kEUR.

J.McLane je 9. nov 2018 ob 14:55 izjavil:

Proti LJ so itak 3 pasovi in znak za priporočeno hitrost 110 kmh (google maps iz leta 2013). Res mini jasno koliko imajo nekateri problemov z drugimi na cesti.

fikus_ je 7. nov 2018 ob 07:59 izjavil:

Je bilo že napisano na to temo. Norvežani se gredo "dvojno igro"! Nafto izvažajo in s tem denarjem si lahko privoščijo bolj "zelene" avtomobile! Poleg tega imajo veliko vodnih virov izkoriščenih za HE. Ni to tipična država glede na energetske vire.

Nikec3 je 9. nov 2018 ob 17:20 izjavil:

Je pa edino en problem, da so čakalne dobe do 12 mesecev, saj je zadeva razprodana.

Tralala999 je 10. nov 2018 ob 09:48 izjavil:

Tehnologija baterije je žalost...zaenkrat.
Električni sanjači ne glejte samo avtov. Vzporedno je treba graditi električno infrastrukturo....obstoječa ni primerna na množično uporabo EV.

Q1 18 - "Tesla can't produce the Model 3!"

Q2 18, Model 3 starts to ramp - "Tesla can't make a profit on the Model 3!"

Q3 18, Tesla is profitable - "This is as good as it will ever get. Only profitable because pent up Performance demand and now ASP and margin will go down from here."

Q4 18, record deliveries/revenue/profit - "That's only because end of year tax credit expiring that pulled demand forward. Now demand will collapse in 2019!"

Q1 19, European deliveries begin, Performance version and awd first, margins pick up again - "That's only because pent up Performance demand and now ASP and margin will go down from here."

Q2 19, China deliveries begin with Performance and awd versions first. Standard battery Model 3 deliveries begin. Record revenue and profit. S&P inclusion. - "OK, now demand is finally saturated, there are no new markets to pick up the slack. No where to go but down from here!"

Q3 19, Model Y unveil. Reservations surpass 500k in one week. - "... Tesla can't produce the Model Y!"

Norveška kaže, da je edini problem električnih avtov cena, za nas na Balkanu.
To na kaj delajo elektriko in od kod jim denar je zaenkrat nepomembno.

nekikr je 10. nov 2018 ob 12:55 izjavil:

Norveška kaže, da je edini problem električnih avtov cena, za nas na Balkanu.
To na kaj delajo elektriko in od kod jim denar je zaenkrat nepomembno.

:D

To je povsem v stilu Stop beeing poor! :)

The key difficulty in valuing Tesla as an investment--or even discussing it with friends--is what business gurus call "dislocation." People suck at forecasts and predictions whenever a market makes a sudden shift from recent history and starts to go a different direction.

It's natural. Whenever you read or watch or listen to someone predicting how TSLA will perform, pay attention to how often they use recent market data or comparisons to existing auto manufacturers to add credibility to their opinions. Recent, hard data ("sales of midsize sedans in the US are declining") always seems to carry great weight, but it is usually accompanied by a casual assumption: this is how consumers will behave in the future. For instance, in sizing up Tesla's addressable market for the $50Kish Model 3, estimates are modest. "This is how many sedans Mercedes and BMW sell each year at that price point." Or "demand for electric cars has always been modest." The casual assumption: the demand for Model 3 will be rather limited, since that has been the case for other $50Kish sedans or electric cars recently.

As if that were all that were happening right now: someone is introducing a $50K car. Or another electric car. Yawn. Seen that before.

Were that the case.

The phrase "iPhone moment" is shorthand for "consumers suddenly defy the conventional wisdom in a category, in a very dramatic and market-upsetting way."

Nokia, the dominant market leader in 2007 with a 50% global market share, suddenly (well, in the course of a few years) became largely irrelevant (today Nokia has less than 3% of the market). Apple became (after a while) the most valuable company of any kind in the world. In a category where $99 was widely considered the price point that any new entrant would need to meet. "Who would spend $499 [iPhone's introductory price in 2007] for a phone? Ha ha, the market for that expensive a phone is TINY." There were a number of business luminaries (like Steve Balmer) who went on record disdainfully mocking Apple's chances.

They should have been buying stock.

Sound familiar? We have Accord and Civic buyers suddenly lining up to pay more than they have ever paid for a car.

Here's my perspective as someone who has analyzed markets for a living at one point.

The single most valuable thing in business is high customer demand. It solves a host of the most critical business problems (commitments from suppliers, funding from investors, cost-effective marketing, goodwill when things go wrong, recruiting top talent, ability to commit to business decisions). People think it's technology, brand strength, cash-on-hand, advertising budget, production facilities or current market share.

Nope, it's people lining up. Nothing else in business is more valuable than that. Even if your cost position sucks, even if you have quality issues, even if you have larger competitors, even if you need more capital. Those things can be fixed if you have demand. Without demand, none of those matter.

If GM had an electric car that people were clamoring for, things would get much, much simpler for them. The board would quickly approve investment, people would be excited to come to work at GM to help them do it, GM would get aggressive with its dealers, who would actually be anxious to have a product that consumers were clamoring for. GM could invest to make them in a much more cost-effective manner than they do currently, at a much higher production rate. Funding a charging infrastructure would be a no-brainer.

If you follow this line of thinking it would surprise you--as it has me--that short sellers would make fun of people lining up and paying money years in advance to reserve a Model 3, or volunteering to help at packed delivery centers. This is hard data of the most important kind: evidence of enthusiastic demand.

The reservation count for Model 3 was an earth-shaking (well, in the automobile industry) event. Angela Merkel called the German CEOs onto the carpet and said (I'm translating), "Holy ****, dudes. This is our most important employment sector in Germany. Do we have a plan for competing with this?" She didn't say, "Look at this tiny company. We need to crack out some spiffy PowerPoint concepts to combat this." The Chancellor of Germany, a country known for automotive engineering talent, heard one statistic (473,000) involving a tiny California company and she was shook. She didn't need market analysis--she had tangible data of something very important. It almost didn't matter whether 473,000 cars would matter in a global market where over the course of a few years an order of magnitude more cars than that would be purchased.

473,000 meant: this is an iPhone moment. Times are a-changin'. Strap in for a bumpy ride.