Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

. @holger_r and I talked to "Karl," the Estonian military analyst, about latest developments in Ukraine. Thread:

"This time, let’s start with a broader overview of the situation. It got quite messy for Ukraine from the strategic communication perspective a few weeks ago. It was a combination of several issues..."

"1. The expectations that Ukraine had for the summer counter-offensive were by far not met.
2. The still on-going confusion in U.S. Congress regarding funding Ukraine
3. Fears relating to Trump’s possible return to White House..."
"4. Internal fighting that broke out after Zaluzhny’s Economist article and the subsequent criticism from Ukraine's president’s administration.

If you add Russia's massive attacks mainly on Avdiivka, it all became very problematic."

"So far, Russia hasn’t achieved success with the attack and in the last few weeks the overall picture has improved a lot. Ukraine's internal rhetoric is more or less in tune again. The Zelensky-Zaluzhny quarrel hasn’t advanced."

"There are clear indications from D.C. that the new Ukraine package will be approved before the end of year. It will be a compromise that will account for domestic U.S. issues, but sooner or later Congress will reach an agreement."

...

"The overall picture in the last few weeks was much more depressing than the actual situation on the frontline."

...

"What is the perspective of Ukraine’s operations on the east bank of the Dnipro? From there it’s only 60-70 kilometers to Armyansk in Crimea. If Ukraine breaks through the eastern bank, it will be a huge risk for Russia."

...

"Ukraine’s defense has kept steady at Avdiivka so far but there is reason for concern as Avdiivka is itself at ‘tooth’ inside Russia's defensive line. There is a risk of encirclement. It is Ukraine’s closest point to Donetsk. This is the main strategic importance of it to Kyiv."

"For Russia it is also a matter of some symbolic importance. The frontline hasn’t changed much there since 2014."

"Compared to last year when hordes of prisoners died for Bakhmut, Russia's losses come in the majority now from the rows of mobniks. There is a risk that the high casualty rate can grow into discontent in Russian society."

"You can sense some discontent in Russian war blogs but if and when it spreads to the general society, I can’t assess. There was one attempt to organize a soldiers’ mom’s protest in Moscow but that was banned with the excuse of COVID."

"Overall, I don’t see significant change of the frontline this winter. I am mildly surprised that Russia hasn’t yet started massive rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Last year it started at the end of October."

"It might mean that Russia wants to launch an even more massive attack than the roughly 100 missiles per day they used last year. They might be waiting for even colder weather to come, although it is already very chilly there."

"Ukraine doesn’t have air defense cover across the country. This means that they can be vulnerable to large-scale missile attacks in some places."

"Zelensky has now confirmed that there will be no elections next year. This is clear. It was strange pressure from a specific part of the U.S. administration to hold the elections. I can’t imagine who'd take the responsibility to open polling stations during the war. The UK didn’t hold elections during World War II. Why would we presume that Ukraine would do it now, especially when its constitution bars it and you can’t amend the constitution during a time of war?"

...

"Elsewhere, the EU’s plan to supply Ukraine with a million shells by March 2024 is far behind schedule. It is realistic that they will achieve 60-65% of the plan by March."

"The European and American defense industries say that they need assurances that if they open new production lines, there will be enough orders for the next 5-10 years."

"The development in that direction is still slow. It raises the question if the West actually buys its own rhetoric the need to be prepared for a long war."

AtaŠtumf je 22. nov 2023 ob 19:10 izjavil:

Veš kaj se raje vprašaje, če ukrajinska protiofenziva, potem, ko je dobila tone in tone orožja, ni naredila dobesedno nič konkretnega, vsi zahodni viri optimistično govorijo o max 0.25% nazaj osvojenega ozemlja.

Kaki uspehi bodo sedaj in kako daleč bodo prišli, ko še paco čivka, da se pomoč počasi konkretno manjša in čedalje več ljudi na zahodu pravi, da se je že dovolj pomagalo Ukrajini in da bo počasi konec večjih pošiljk orožja?


Aja, saj res, pozabil sem na visoleteče obljube Nemčije, ki jih je paco omenjal.

Kaj bodo pa poslali, ko Pistorius sam v nemških medijih razlaga, da niso sposobni popolnoma oborožiti enega nemškega bataljona?

AtaŠtumf je 22. nov 2023 ob 19:10 izjavil:

Veš kaj se raje vprašaje, če ukrajinska protiofenziva, potem, ko je dobila tone in tone orožja, ni naredila dobesedno nič konkretnega, vsi zahodni viri optimistično govorijo o max 0.25% nazaj osvojenega ozemlja.

Kaki uspehi bodo sedaj in kako daleč bodo prišli, ko še paco čivka, da se pomoč počasi konkretno manjša in čedalje več ljudi na zahodu pravi, da se je že dovolj pomagalo Ukrajini in da bo počasi konec večjih pošiljk orožja?


Aja, saj res, pozabil sem na visoleteče obljube Nemčije, ki jih je paco omenjal.

Kaj bodo pa poslali, ko Pistorius sam v nemških medijih razlaga, da niso sposobni popolnoma oborožiti enega nemškega bataljona?

Putin is divorced and does not appear with his daughters.
Matvienko lived separately from him for many years before her husband’s death.
Volodin is gay.
Mironov is actually married for the fifth time.

And these people unanimously demand that we adhere to “traditional family values.”

Curiously, while Russia is increasing repression against LGBTQ+ people, there are many such people among the Kremlin's ruling elite. Chairman of the Duma, the lower chamber of parliament, which approved today's bill, Vyacheslav Volodin is rumoured to be gay.

Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the State Duma, posted a Telegram poll this summer on whether his followers considered it ‘necessary to introduce a ban on propaganda of non-traditional values’. He himself stated that he firmly believed in introducing one. Yet Volodin is also a politician whose sexuality has been whispered about so much online, along with a routine accusation in the state media that this was a US smear. As a result, it became a common joke at one point in Russia to follow any mention of the man’s name with the words ‘and by the way Volodin is not gay’. It was a slogan taken up in 2015, when subversive posters were hung in Moscow stating that not only was Volodin still ‘not gay’, but also German Gref (the head of Russia’s Sberbank) was definitely ‘not gay’ either. This settled the matter once and for all and it’s surely Volodin’s emphatic and even flamboyant not-gayness that has made him such a keen advocate of this new campaign.

Pac-Man je 20. nov 2023 ob 15:32 izjavil:

Video s fronte, vozniku se je tako mudilo na varno, da je zbil soborca

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta...

Gre za tole

https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/17...

Fifth graders outside Moscow reportedly got a lesson in battlefield first aid, including mock amputations, in a recent patriotic education class. Teachers also blasted some Shaman music beforehand to psyche 'em up.
https://t.me/nenorma_project/586?single

AtaŠtumf je 24. nov 2023 ob 19:53 izjavil:

Še malce zavajanja bi nekateri tukaj rekli...
EU promises to Ukraine are only "symbolic". EU fails to deliver the ammunition it promised to Ukraine.

Bauc je 24. nov 2023 ob 20:20 izjavil:

AtaŠtumf je 24. nov 2023 ob 19:53 izjavil:

Še malce zavajanja bi nekateri tukaj rekli...

EU promises to Ukraine are only "symbolic". EU fails to deliver the ammunition it promised to Ukraine.

Seveda zavajaš ampak ti je delno oproščeno, ker si tudi sam zaveden. Milijon granat bo dobavljeno ampak verjetno ne do marca 2024.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/...

IMAGES of Ukrainian soldiers training in the Kyiv region with modular tanks on rails.

South Africa ended its nuclear weapons programme in 1989. All the bombs (six constructed and one under construction) were dismantled and South Africa acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons when South African Ambassador to the United States Harry Schwarz acceded to the treaty in 1991.

The Vela incident was an unidentified double flash of light detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite on 22 September 1979 near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, roughly midway between Africa and Antarctica. Today, most independent researchers believe that the flash was caused by a nuclear explosion[1][2][3]—an undeclared joint nuclear test carried out by South Africa and Israel.[4][5]

Pac-Man je 25. nov 2023 ob 11:17 izjavil:

Kot napisano, med apartheidom je imela Južna Afrika velikansko vojaško industrijo, vključno z uspešnim jedrskim programom v sodelovanju z Izraelom

South Africa and weapons of mass destruction @ Wikipedia

South Africa ended its nuclear weapons programme in 1989. All the bombs (six constructed and one under construction) were dismantled and South Africa acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons when South African Ambassador to the United States Harry Schwarz acceded to the treaty in 1991.

Vela incident @ Wikipedia

The Vela incident was an unidentified double flash of light detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite on 22 September 1979 near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, roughly midway between Africa and Antarctica. Today, most independent researchers believe that the flash was caused by a nuclear explosion[1][2][3]—an undeclared joint nuclear test carried out by South Africa and Israel.[4][5]

Danes so spet poslali skoraj 80 dronov nad Kijev. Tale 13 mesecev star video, kjer bivši oficir in trenutni poslanec putinove stranke v treh minutah razloži, kako je njihov cilj zmrznit civiliste, pa ima samo 12500 ogledov. Drobiž v primerjavi z raznimi teorijami zarot, žalostno.

Russian lawmakers advocate freezing and starving Ukrainian civilians, turning them into refugees

To, da nekdo po "šov TV" nekaj trdi, še ne pomeni, da se to tudi dejansko dela.

Ta "nekdo" je upokojeni ruski general in trenutni poslanec putinove stranke. Voljeni predstavnik ljudstva iz stranke na oblasti. "Šov TV" pa pogovorna oddaja na 1. kanalu ruske javne televizije.

V dobrem letu od izjave niso reagirali ne organi stranke ali ruske dume, niti Roskomnadzor, ki je očitno preveč zaposlen z zapiranjem obrobnih opozicijskih medijev in nima časa regulirati TV postaje, ki je prosto dostopna v vseh ruskih domovih.

Ali pa, počakaj malo, je to splošno sprejet konsenz v ruski družbi.

Bauc je 25. nov 2023 ob 13:52 izjavil:

Fritz je 25. nov 2023 ob 13:01 izjavil:

Kdo je že razlagal, da ni nobenega dokaza za trditve kako je zahod preprečil mirovni sporazum med Rusijo in Ukrajino aprila 2022?

https://twitter.com/ornik_saso/status/1...

Saj res, Ukrajinci so samostojni in neodvisni, so se že sami odločili kako in kaj.

Daj vsaj preberi kaj lepiš. Itak Ukrajinci vejo, da Rusi ne spoštujejo dogovorov. To veš tudi ti ampak še kar nabijaš.

When asked why Ukraine did not agree to this, here’s what he says: “First, in order to agree to this point, it is necessary to change the Constitution. Our path to NATO is written in the Constitution. Secondly, there was no confidence in the Russians that they would do it. This could only be done if there were security guarantees. We could not sign something, step away, everyone would relax there, and then they would [invade] even more prepared – because they had, in fact, gone in unprepared for such a resistance. Therefore, we could only explore this route when there is absolute certainty that this will not happen again. There is no such certainty.

Cherrypicking je huda razvada. Prilepi še drug del teksta:



So this, combined with Arakhamia;s confirmation that what really killed the deal was “Boris Johnson [coming] to Kyiv and [saying] that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let's just fight” shows that it is unequivocally the West that killed the peace deal.

Bauc je 25. nov 2023 ob 15:50 izjavil:

Fritz je 25. nov 2023 ob 15:22 izjavil:

Lej, do sedaj ste trdili, da ni bilo nobenih pritiskov naj ne gredo v sporazum, sedaj je pa jasno povedano kako je bilo. In ne, to ni neko Johnsonovo mnenje temveč je šlo za uradno stališče, ki seveda ni bilo javno izraženo (diplomacija pa to).

Kakšnih pritiskov? Ukrajinci so se sami odločili, da se borijo kot so se rusi sami odločili, da napadejo. Nobena zagotovila zahoda in Rusov ne bodo pomagala popolnoma nič. Sporazum z Rusi velja dokler jim odgovarja pol ga pa vržejo v smeti. Niso se držali sporazumov z ukrajinci, gruzijci, čečeni in seveda se niso držali tudi sporazuma z Prigožinom. Tudi, če bo podpisan nov dogovor z ukrajinci se ga bodo držali samo dokler si ne bodo zlizali ran. Pa ne nabija z NATO. Finska je v Nato pa Ruse to ne moti. Ukrajina v nato bi pomenila, da Rusi ne morejo več napadati ukrajine. To je edini problem za Ruse. Da njihovi sosedi bežijo iz njihove sfere vpliva so pa krivi sami. Denar za luksuz Putina in njegovega kroga bi vlagali v Rusijo in sosede pa bi lahko obdržali vpliv brez groženj. To pa seveda zanje ni opcija.

Fritz je 25. nov 2023 ob 16:10 izjavil:

Bauc je 25. nov 2023 ob 15:50 izjavil:

Fritz je 25. nov 2023 ob 15:22 izjavil:

Lej, do sedaj ste trdili, da ni bilo nobenih pritiskov naj ne gredo v sporazum, sedaj je pa jasno povedano kako je bilo. In ne, to ni neko Johnsonovo mnenje temveč je šlo za uradno stališče, ki seveda ni bilo javno izraženo (diplomacija pa to).

Kakšnih pritiskov? Ukrajinci so se sami odločili, da se borijo kot so se rusi sami odločili, da napadejo. Nobena zagotovila zahoda in Rusov ne bodo pomagala popolnoma nič. Sporazum z Rusi velja dokler jim odgovarja pol ga pa vržejo v smeti. Niso se držali sporazumov z ukrajinci, gruzijci, čečeni in seveda se niso držali tudi sporazuma z Prigožinom. Tudi, če bo podpisan nov dogovor z ukrajinci se ga bodo držali samo dokler si ne bodo zlizali ran. Pa ne nabija z NATO. Finska je v Nato pa Ruse to ne moti. Ukrajina v nato bi pomenila, da Rusi ne morejo več napadati ukrajine. To je edini problem za Ruse. Da njihovi sosedi bežijo iz njihove sfere vpliva so pa krivi sami. Denar za luksuz Putina in njegovega kroga bi vlagali v Rusijo in sosede pa bi lahko obdržali vpliv brez groženj. To pa seveda zanje ni opcija.

Seveda. kar verjemi v to. Ukrajinci so tako samostojni, da si vse samostojno privoščijo. Sploh ni tako, da jim mi dajemo orožje in denar, da lahko njihova država sploh deluje.

Kar se sporazumov tiče, je glede Minska dovolj izjav zahodnih voditeljev kako kredibilni so bili, skupaj z Ukrajino. Sicer pa vidimo na primeru Palestine, da je sta okupacija in zasedba ozemlja čisto v redu. Rusi so v primerjavi z Izraelci celo izjemno zadržani.

Malidelničar je 25. nov 2023 ob 18:13 izjavil:

Pac-Man: Malce off-topic: Ali imajo Patriot baterije sploh kakšno šibko točko oz. Ahilovo tetivo?

redtech je 25. nov 2023 ob 19:48 izjavil:

Tovarna dronov, visi tudi US, UK zastava.

Za rajo je drugačen oder