Forum » Problemi človeštva » Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"
Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"
Temo vidijo: vsi
Pac-Man ::
Pa še znanci mi pravijo, da je trenutno Slo tech blokiran na internem RTV internetu. Dajte jih še naprej žalit pa bo verjetno tako ostalo.
BWAHAHAHAHA. No, tole so mi poslali kako leto nazaj, od takrat sem pod nadzorom in mora vsako moje sporočilo pred objavo potrdit moderator:
Spoštovani!
Prosimo vas, da v avatarju uporabniškega imena Pac-Man nadomestite trenutno sliko s katero drugo, saj si prizadevamo za čim bolj spoštljivo in korektno debato.
Nekatere grafične podobe, ki se nanašajo na vpletene strani v vojaškem konfliktu, lahko pri drugih bralcih in sodelujočih, ali neposredno prizadetih v tem konfliktu, vzpodbudijo neprijetne občutke ali neprimerne odzive.
Iz pravil:
9. Pri pisanju sporočil bom poskušal jasno izraziti svoje mnenje, da ga bodo souporabniki pravilno razumeli. Nekateri stavki v pisani besedi mnogokrat ne učinkujejo enako kot v govoru, zato bom pozoren na jasnost sporočil in komentarjev. Razumem in se strinjam, da vulgarni ali drugače neprimerni komentarji, uporabniška imena in uporabniške slike (avatarji) niso dovoljeni, zato jih ne bom uporabljal.
Enak poziv smo poslali tudi nekaterim drugim uporabnikom, pri katerih smo opazili podobne slike pri uporabniških imenih (grbi, zastave regij itd.).
Hvala za razumevanje.
LP
Administrator
Bunch of snowflakes.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
Malidelničar ::
Zgleda, da je s terorističnimi wagnerci res konec oz. so pri zadnjih izdihljajih, saj streljajo na rusko vojsko.
Putler počasi izgublja vojno. Vsak mesec so slabši. Ampak imam občutek, da bodo rusi srači na tem ozemlju v neskončnost. Tudi ko bo vojne konec, bodo rusi še kar metali kakšne bombe in streljali na ljudi.
Zato sem govoril, da je možna razširitev vojne. Slovenci tega ne razumejo ker so debili na kvadrat. Če bo prišlo do razširitve vojne v Vzhodni Evropi, mora Evropa to izkoristiti.
Cilj je povrnitev statusa v okviru OZN-a, ki je bil leta 1991:
1) Vrnitev statusa Ukrajine na leto razglasitve neodvisnosti 1991 v okviru mednarodno priznanih meja republike
2) Razjasnitev statusa Belorusije (polna članica OZN, ali anektirana v Rusijo) - če bo državljanska vojna v Belorusiji mora EU poslati orožje
3) Povrnitev mednarodnega statusa Moldavije, ukinitev "rogue" statusa Transdnistrije, in uveljavitev meja Moldavije iz 1991
4) Ukinitev raznih "rogue" "republik" Abkhazija, Osetija, in povrnitev meja Gruzije iz 1991
Ironično so na možnost večjega konflikta namignili Kitajci, ko je ambasador rekel, da posovjetske republike nimajo statusa v mednarodnem pravu. ROFL, če temu sledimo bo izbruhnila svetovna vojna. Kitajci in Rusi bi očitno meje premikali :)
Vir: Kitajski veleposlanik razburil s preizpraševanjem suverenosti baltskih držav
https://siol.net/novice/svet/kitajski-v...
Don't invest like a Joe. Invest like a Simon.
Rambutan ::
Pac-Man ::
Tako da nekako ne razumem, kaj naj bi bilo narobe s poročanjem RTV...
Problem je putinverštehanje med tam zaposlenimi. 8 let genocida pa to.
In Bog ti pomagaj, če greš Rusijo povezovat s fašizmom.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Pac-Man ()
Rambutan ::
Malo več podatkov o napadu, vhod v pristanišče je varovan z 6 sloji fizičnih preprek.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20...
Today’s attack on Sevastopol harbor by Ukrainian maritime drones (uncrewed surface vessels armed with explosives) will make headlines. And rightly so. Yet there is an aspect which could easily be overlooked; this time none of Ukraine’s drone’s appeared to penetrate the harbor. The attack comes as Russia undertakes a massive effort to increase the harbor’s protection against these attacks.
The entrance to Sevastopol harbor is now protected by no less than 6 layers of physical barriers. This adds to the patrol boats, helicopter patrols, anti-diver dolphins and gun emplacements.
Local Governor, Mikhail Razvozhaev, announced on social media that the attack occurred at 3.30am. He stated that one maritime drone was destroyed and that a second exploded on its own. His wording appeared to confirm that the attackers did not penetrate the harbor.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20...
Today’s attack on Sevastopol harbor by Ukrainian maritime drones (uncrewed surface vessels armed with explosives) will make headlines. And rightly so. Yet there is an aspect which could easily be overlooked; this time none of Ukraine’s drone’s appeared to penetrate the harbor. The attack comes as Russia undertakes a massive effort to increase the harbor’s protection against these attacks.
The entrance to Sevastopol harbor is now protected by no less than 6 layers of physical barriers. This adds to the patrol boats, helicopter patrols, anti-diver dolphins and gun emplacements.
Local Governor, Mikhail Razvozhaev, announced on social media that the attack occurred at 3.30am. He stated that one maritime drone was destroyed and that a second exploded on its own. His wording appeared to confirm that the attackers did not penetrate the harbor.
mackilla ::
Med tem nato generali in ruski viri.
Enako je povsem pravilno, da npr. RTV ne poroča o napadu na 70m globok bunker in o 300 mrtvih generalih, za kar prav tako ni nobenih dokazov. Tako da nekako ne razumem, kaj naj bi bilo narobe s poročanjem RTV...
Ampak to,da ni nobenih dokazov za napad na 70m globok bunker in 300 mrtvih generalnih tebe ni ustavilo,da ne bi te "novice" pred kakim mesecm prilepil tukaj gor
Sheteentz ::
Pa še znanci mi pravijo, da je trenutno Slo tech blokiran na internem RTV internetu. Dajte jih še naprej žalit pa bo verjetno tako ostalo.
Potrjujem tole glede blokiranja. Jao bože, kaj se gremo :D
Ajde, bom pa pač več naredil, in ne bom toliko bluzil po slo-techu. Ampak tale blokada je pa nova, stara kake par dni.
Lesoto ::
20 bomb na dan priznava celo Forbes
In kje je Forbes dobil ta info??
Ukrajinci so porabili skoraj vso municijo za sovjetsko AA obrambo, domnevno je bil to namen ruskega raketiranja ukrajinskega el. omrežja, iztrošiti ukrajinsko AA obrambo.
To je nekaj najbolj neumnega, kar sem slišal v laufu. Pošiljanje več miljonov dolarjev vredne manevrirne rakete, da onemu na drugi strani zmanjka AA raket, je bedarija na kvadrat. Ukrajinci so dobili en kup modernih AA sistemov (NASAMS + IRIS-T), sestreljevali so jih z ročnimi SAM sistemi, manevrirne rakete so lovili z Migi 29 etc.
mojsterleo ::
Iz posnetkov in fotografij incidenta je jasno razvidno, da je dron nekaj zadel. Jasno je razvidna tudi sekundarna eksplozija.
Zakaj je sploh sporno poročanje RTV? Kje imaš kak vir oz. ukrajinsko trditev, da so droni uspeli uničit karkoli?
Rusi so dali uradno izjavo, da so oba drona uničili. Na drugi strani imaš pa 3 čivke pro ukrajinskih "analitikov" iz zahoda, ki kažejo video z dimom in ekspolozijo, brez kakršnekoli informacije, kaj naj bi ti droni uspeli uničiti.
Jest razumem, da nekateri verjamejo pro ukrajinskim insinuacijam, resni mediji pa morajo poročati na osnovi dokazov...
Trenutne špekulacije so, da je dron zadel Rusko transportno ladjo BDK-64, ki je 6 februarja zapustila Sirijo na poti v Sevastopol. Možno je, da so bile na ladji manevrirne rakete, S-300 municije ali kaj podobnega.
Več informacij niti ni za pričakovati. Rusi itak ne bodo priznali svojih izgub, tako da lahko samo ugibamo na podlagi javno dostopnih podatkov in dejstev.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: mojsterleo ()
Lesoto ::
Hja, če bi imeli Ukrajinci možnost neovirano uporabljati tako velike, čeprav mogoče neprecizne bombe, močno dvomim da jih ne bi uporabljali. Saj so se že hvalili, da bodo uporabljali podobne JDAM bombe, s katerimi pa so problemi.
A so še problemi? V tistem poročilu iz februarja se omenja 9 JDAMOv od katerih je 5 zadelo cilj, štirje pa ne (bi rekel, da je to precej višja natančnost, kot pa ta ruska leteča bomba, ki jo lahko veter odpelje par sto metrov naprej ali nazaj). Navedena razloga sta dva, motenje GPS signala ali napačne nastavitve na ukrajinskih letalih. Ono prvo je skrajno nemogoče izvajat na frontni liniji.
Iz tega kar smo videli v Belgorodu, je SU-34 izvrgel dve taki bombi, nobeni od njiju se ni odprl letalni del s krili, ena izmed njiju sploh ni eksplodirala, ker je zatajil timer na bombi.
A to lahko forumuliramo, kot to, da so z ruskimi letečimi bombami PROBLEMI, a Rambutan?!?
A boš zopet bluzil z nekim neumnim izgovarjanjem.
Local Governor, Mikhail Razvozhaev, announced on social media that the attack occurred at 3.30am. He stated that one maritime drone was destroyed and that a second exploded on its own. His wording appeared to confirm that the attackers did not penetrate the harbor.
Dobesedno je posneto na kameri, da je zadeva eksplodirala v zalivu.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Lesoto ()
fur80 ::
Ena zanimivost, glede našega MSM, kateremu nakažem 12EUR na mesec! :D
Streletka bay. Sevastopol.
Smoke can be clearly seen after the attack by Ukrainian kamikaze surface vessels in the very place where the Russian warships of the Black Sea Fleet (flotilla) of the Russian Federation are moored. The occupation authorities declare that the drones failed to enter the bay
Another angle of the moment USV attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet base in temporarily occupied Sevastopol, Crimea
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status...
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/...
https://twitter.com/NicolaDawn5/status/...
Novica na našem RTV - MMC pa:
Ruska zračna obramba odbila napad z brezpilotniki pri Sevastopolu
Zelenski: Nemogoče je, da bi obupali nad Bahmutom
Ruska črnomorska flota je sporočila, da so odbili napad z brezpilotnimi letalniki pri mestu Sevastopol na Krimu. Rusko obrambno ministrstvo medtem navaja, da so njihove sile napredovale v mestu Bahmut, kjer potekajo siloviti spopadi.
https://www.rtvslo.si/svet/vojna-v-ukra...
Zakaj je sploh sporno poročanje RTV? Kje imaš kak vir oz. ukrajinsko trditev, da so droni uspeli uničit karkoli?
Rusi so dali uradno izjavo, da so oba drona uničili. Na drugi strani imaš pa 3 čivke pro ukrajinskih "analitikov" iz zahoda, ki kažejo video z dimom in ekspolozijo, brez kakršnekoli informacije, kaj naj bi ti droni uspeli uničiti.
Jest razumem, da nekateri verjamejo pro ukrajinskim insinuacijam, resni mediji pa morajo poročati na osnovi dokazov...
Eksplozijo so geolocirali (bila je v pristanišču in nato se je še dolgo kadilo) + tega je to bil surface vessels, kar pomeni da je bila to kamikaza ladjica in ne leteči dron kot to pametujejo na RTV! Naprej pa nebom, članki mi vzbujajo občutke, kako je srbska RTS poročala o vojni na blakanu, kar pa mi ni všeč, da za nekaj kar plačujem delajo isto in imam ob tem slabe občutke!
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: fur80 ()
Pac-Man ::
Dolga nit bivšega ukrajinskega ministra za ekonomijo, par videoposnetkov na povezavi. Tisti z ruskimi helikopterji je en bolj dramatičnih. Samo število je impresivno.
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/16...
Propaganda works and so it must be refuted.
Lavrov: everyone understands the US declared a crusade against Russia and its legitimate interests, choosing Kiev nazi regime as its tip and pumping it with weapons. [video]
Everything here is a lie.
Main argument: the US has declared a crusade against Russia, while Kyiv is a puppet of the US.
No, on February 24, 2022 Russia has invaded Ukraine with hundreds of thousands troops, from North, South, and East, launched missile attacks, sent tanks, bombed cities.
The US has not done nor declared anything. It is Russia that started the war in Ukraine. Since then Russia killed and tortured tens of thousands of civilians, abducted and deported children, and committed war crimes and atrocities.
Moreover, the US and the rest of the free world was reluctant to provide any material support in the first days of the invasion. Instead, it offered the government of Ukraine to evacuate in exile.
Lavrov implies that Ukraine is a puppet and has no agency.
But it is the people of Ukraine who picked up the arms and defended the country during the first days and weeks of the invasion. It is the people of Ukraine who continued to do their job so that the country functioned in the critical moments.
Check out this video (in Ukrainian) of people driving to work on the day of invasion and seeing Russian helicopters en masse. That doesn’t look like the US crusade, but it is a very clear start of the war by Russia.
About 1/3 in the video, one person asks “what do we do now?” [video]
The reply he gets “we go to work”.
On the first day of the war I personally saw hundreds of heroes who kept doing their job even though they also had families and loved ones to save. Police and paramedics rocked, banks worked, gas stations worked, groceries worked.
Lavrov implies that Russia has legitimate interests in Ukraine. There is nothing legitimate about starting a war. But even if we take his claim seriously and accept that there are Russians in Ukraine who consider themselves Russians (which with rare exception is not true)…Then why did Russia kill tens of thousands Russian speaking Ukrainians in Mariupol.
What kind of protection is this? A legitimate interest in murdering Russian speaking people?
Lavrov uses Nazi regime to describe the government in Kyiv. There is zero evidence about any nazis in the government in Ukraine. The Russian government has in fact some elements of nazism, including the cult of a strong leader, putting Russian “legitimate” interests above else.
Lavrov argues that the US pumps Ukraine with weapons for the crusade. It is not true. Ukraine constantly asks the US for proper weapons. These weapons are given with delays in fear of escalation and in relatively small (given the scale of the war) amounts.
These weapons are used to defend Ukraine rather than attack Russia.
Finally, Lavrov argues that Ukraine is a top of the crusade. Well, so where is the rest? Are any other nations attacking Russia? Any allies of the US going to invade the Russian Federation? I don’t think so.
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/16...
Propaganda works and so it must be refuted.
Lavrov: everyone understands the US declared a crusade against Russia and its legitimate interests, choosing Kiev nazi regime as its tip and pumping it with weapons. [video]
Everything here is a lie.
Main argument: the US has declared a crusade against Russia, while Kyiv is a puppet of the US.
No, on February 24, 2022 Russia has invaded Ukraine with hundreds of thousands troops, from North, South, and East, launched missile attacks, sent tanks, bombed cities.
The US has not done nor declared anything. It is Russia that started the war in Ukraine. Since then Russia killed and tortured tens of thousands of civilians, abducted and deported children, and committed war crimes and atrocities.
Moreover, the US and the rest of the free world was reluctant to provide any material support in the first days of the invasion. Instead, it offered the government of Ukraine to evacuate in exile.
Lavrov implies that Ukraine is a puppet and has no agency.
But it is the people of Ukraine who picked up the arms and defended the country during the first days and weeks of the invasion. It is the people of Ukraine who continued to do their job so that the country functioned in the critical moments.
Check out this video (in Ukrainian) of people driving to work on the day of invasion and seeing Russian helicopters en masse. That doesn’t look like the US crusade, but it is a very clear start of the war by Russia.
About 1/3 in the video, one person asks “what do we do now?” [video]
The reply he gets “we go to work”.
On the first day of the war I personally saw hundreds of heroes who kept doing their job even though they also had families and loved ones to save. Police and paramedics rocked, banks worked, gas stations worked, groceries worked.
Lavrov implies that Russia has legitimate interests in Ukraine. There is nothing legitimate about starting a war. But even if we take his claim seriously and accept that there are Russians in Ukraine who consider themselves Russians (which with rare exception is not true)…Then why did Russia kill tens of thousands Russian speaking Ukrainians in Mariupol.
What kind of protection is this? A legitimate interest in murdering Russian speaking people?
Lavrov uses Nazi regime to describe the government in Kyiv. There is zero evidence about any nazis in the government in Ukraine. The Russian government has in fact some elements of nazism, including the cult of a strong leader, putting Russian “legitimate” interests above else.
Lavrov argues that the US pumps Ukraine with weapons for the crusade. It is not true. Ukraine constantly asks the US for proper weapons. These weapons are given with delays in fear of escalation and in relatively small (given the scale of the war) amounts.
These weapons are used to defend Ukraine rather than attack Russia.
Finally, Lavrov argues that Ukraine is a top of the crusade. Well, so where is the rest? Are any other nations attacking Russia? Any allies of the US going to invade the Russian Federation? I don’t think so.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Pac-Man ()
Lesoto ::
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/statu...
Unpacking this assessment in our change of control of terrain around the Dnipro River delta.
This assessment uses a combination of multi-sourced Russian-provided textual reports about Ukrainian activity in this area as well as available geolocated combat footage.
Unpacking this assessment in our change of control of terrain around the Dnipro River delta.
This assessment uses a combination of multi-sourced Russian-provided textual reports about Ukrainian activity in this area as well as available geolocated combat footage.
fur80 ::
Izgleda, da so Ukrajinci resno vzeli tisto o miljonski nagradi, ki jo dobi dron z napisom Slava Ukrajini, ki bo pristal na rdečem trgu v Moskvi. Zadnjič so našli enega, ki je padel do v šumi pred Moskvo.
The airspace over Moscow's Vnukovo airport was closed , rosZMI.
It is reported that information has been received about an unknown UAV
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status...
The airspace over Moscow's Vnukovo airport was closed , rosZMI.
It is reported that information has been received about an unknown UAV
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status...
Lesoto ::
Izgleda, da so Ukrajinci resno vzeli tisto o miljonski nagradi, ki jo dobi dron z napisom Slava Ukrajini, ki bo pristal na rdečem trgu v Moskvi. Zadnjič so našli enega, ki je padel do v šumi pred Moskvo.
The airspace over Moscow's Vnukovo airport was closed , rosZMI.
It is reported that information has been received about an unknown UAV
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status...
Aha
Hello Moscow! Soon...
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1...
na sredini pa 09.05. (9. maj - dan zmage)
Lesoto ::
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/...
Tu se lepo vidi sekundarna ekplozija znotraj sekunde po glavni ekploziji.
Rambutan ::
Nov članek v Politico, Bidnovo ekipo skrbi, kaj bo po morebitnem neuspehu ukrajiske protiofenzive. Napovedi so precej pesimistične, Ukrajinci nimajo velikih možnosti za uspeh. To je še en v vrsti člankov, ki pripravlja javnost na polom v Ukrajini.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too.
Publicly, President Joe Biden’s team has offered unwavering support for Ukraine, pledging to load it up with weapons and economic aid for “as long as it takes.” But, if the impending fighting season yields limited gains, administration officials have expressed privately they fear being faced with a two-headed monster attacking it from the hawkish and dovish ends of the spectrum.
That doesn’t even account for the reaction of America’s allies, mainly in Europe, who may see a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia as a more attractive option if Kyiv can’t prove victory is around the corner.
Inside the administration, officials stress they’re doing everything possible to make the spring offensive succeed.
“We’ve nearly completed the requests of what [Ukraine] said they needed for the counteroffensive as we have surged weapons and equipment to Ukraine over the past few months,” said one administration official who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal considerations.
But belief in the strategic cause is one thing. Belief in the tactics is another — and behind closed doors the administration is worried about what Ukraine can accomplish.
Those concerns recently spilled out into the open during a leak of classified information onto social media. A top secret assessment from early February stated that Ukraine would fall “well short” of its counteroffensive goals. More current American assessments are that Ukraine may make some progress in the south and east, but won’t be able to repeat last year’s success.
Ukraine has hoped to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and U.S. officials are now skeptical that will happen, according to two administration officials familiar with the assessment. But there are still hopes in the Pentagon that Ukraine will hamper Russia’s supply lines there, even if a total victory over Russia’s newly fortified troops ends up too difficult to achieve.
Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched — and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive can’t begin.
A counteroffensive that doesn’t meet expectations will also cause allies in foreign capitals to question how much more they can spare if Kyiv’s victory looks farther and farther away.
“European public support may wane over time as European energy and economic costs stay high,” said Clementine Starling, a director and fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, D.C. “A fracturing of transatlantic support will likely hurt U.S. domestic support and Congress and the Biden administration may struggle to sustain it.”
Many European nations could also push Kyiv to bring the fighting to an end. “A poor counteroffensive will spark further questions about what an outcome to the war will look like, and the extent to which a solution can really be achieved by continuing to send military arms and aid alone,” Starling said.
Biden and his top aides have publicly stressed that Zelenskyy should only begin peace talks when he is ready. But Washington has also communicated to Kyiv some political realities: at some point, especially with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the pace of U.S. aid will likely slow. Officials in Washington, though not pressing Kyiv, have begun preparing for what those conversations could look like and understand it may be a tough political sell at home for Zelenskyy.
“If Ukraine can’t gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s expensive, we’re running low on munitions, we’ve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for.”
“It’s legitimate to ask all these questions without compromising Ukraine’s goals. It’s simply a question of means,” Haass said.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too.
Publicly, President Joe Biden’s team has offered unwavering support for Ukraine, pledging to load it up with weapons and economic aid for “as long as it takes.” But, if the impending fighting season yields limited gains, administration officials have expressed privately they fear being faced with a two-headed monster attacking it from the hawkish and dovish ends of the spectrum.
That doesn’t even account for the reaction of America’s allies, mainly in Europe, who may see a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia as a more attractive option if Kyiv can’t prove victory is around the corner.
Inside the administration, officials stress they’re doing everything possible to make the spring offensive succeed.
“We’ve nearly completed the requests of what [Ukraine] said they needed for the counteroffensive as we have surged weapons and equipment to Ukraine over the past few months,” said one administration official who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal considerations.
But belief in the strategic cause is one thing. Belief in the tactics is another — and behind closed doors the administration is worried about what Ukraine can accomplish.
Those concerns recently spilled out into the open during a leak of classified information onto social media. A top secret assessment from early February stated that Ukraine would fall “well short” of its counteroffensive goals. More current American assessments are that Ukraine may make some progress in the south and east, but won’t be able to repeat last year’s success.
Ukraine has hoped to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and U.S. officials are now skeptical that will happen, according to two administration officials familiar with the assessment. But there are still hopes in the Pentagon that Ukraine will hamper Russia’s supply lines there, even if a total victory over Russia’s newly fortified troops ends up too difficult to achieve.
Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched — and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive can’t begin.
A counteroffensive that doesn’t meet expectations will also cause allies in foreign capitals to question how much more they can spare if Kyiv’s victory looks farther and farther away.
“European public support may wane over time as European energy and economic costs stay high,” said Clementine Starling, a director and fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, D.C. “A fracturing of transatlantic support will likely hurt U.S. domestic support and Congress and the Biden administration may struggle to sustain it.”
Many European nations could also push Kyiv to bring the fighting to an end. “A poor counteroffensive will spark further questions about what an outcome to the war will look like, and the extent to which a solution can really be achieved by continuing to send military arms and aid alone,” Starling said.
Biden and his top aides have publicly stressed that Zelenskyy should only begin peace talks when he is ready. But Washington has also communicated to Kyiv some political realities: at some point, especially with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the pace of U.S. aid will likely slow. Officials in Washington, though not pressing Kyiv, have begun preparing for what those conversations could look like and understand it may be a tough political sell at home for Zelenskyy.
“If Ukraine can’t gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s expensive, we’re running low on munitions, we’ve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for.”
“It’s legitimate to ask all these questions without compromising Ukraine’s goals. It’s simply a question of means,” Haass said.
Lesoto ::
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/sta...
The occupied territories of Ukraine were visited by Putin's double, - Budanov
It was a double. This time, by the way, when allegedly Putin came to the south, they generally did not work out a bit, because each of his trips there is a certain protocol that they never violate.
He must be accompanied by an aircraft, a military presidential aircraft. This time they forgot it.
Siti smo tvojega filozofiranja in vlečenja zaključkov od tam, kjer se jih ne da. Ene same pomembne stvari nisi napovedal pravilno.
The occupied territories of Ukraine were visited by Putin's double, - Budanov
It was a double. This time, by the way, when allegedly Putin came to the south, they generally did not work out a bit, because each of his trips there is a certain protocol that they never violate.
He must be accompanied by an aircraft, a military presidential aircraft. This time they forgot it.
To je še en v vrsti člankov, ki pripravlja javnost na polom v Ukrajini.
Siti smo tvojega filozofiranja in vlečenja zaključkov od tam, kjer se jih ne da. Ene same pomembne stvari nisi napovedal pravilno.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Lesoto ()
Rambutan ::
To je še en v vrsti člankov, ki pripravlja javnost na polom v Ukrajini.
Siti smo tvojega filozofiranja in vlečenja zaključkov od tam, kjer se jih ne da. Ene same pomembne stvari nisi napovedal pravilno.
Dont shoot the messenger! Jest samo citiram kaj pravi Politico, pa kak podnapis dodam zraven za počasne
Malidelničar ::
Rambutan: Ne verjamem, da bi Evropa sredi spopada stisnila rep med noge in pustila neko pogorišče na Vzhodu Evrope. Tukaj se bo šlo do konca, EU ne bo tvegala, da bo imela v soseščini neurejeno območje, ki bo vzrok novih nestabilnosti.
Poleg tega je potrebno rešiti 'vzhodno vprašanje' o čemer sem že pisal.
Poleg tega je potrebno rešiti 'vzhodno vprašanje' o čemer sem že pisal.
Don't invest like a Joe. Invest like a Simon.
Lesoto ::
Dont shoot the messenger! Jest samo citiram kaj pravi Politico
https://twitter.com/melindaharing/statu...
“If the counteroffensive [in Ukraine] does not go well, the administration has only itself to blame for withholding certain types of arms and aid at the time when it was most needed.”
pa kak podnapis dodam zraven za počasne
Človek, tvojih "gluposti za počasne" smo siti. Tvoj tracking record je zanič.
mackilla ::
To je še en v vrsti člankov, ki pripravlja javnost na polom v Ukrajini.
Siti smo tvojega filozofiranja in vlečenja zaključkov od tam, kjer se jih ne da. Ene same pomembne stvari nisi napovedal pravilno.
Dont shoot the messenger! Jest samo citiram kaj pravi Politico, pa kak podnapis dodam zraven za počasne
Žal mi je,da moram jaz biti tisti,ki ti to pove. Bolj počasne sorte si ti. Citiral si moskovitsko propagando,da bo Bahmut padel pred marcem ter bo do začetka poletja sledila obkolitev ukrajinske vojske ter padec Krematorska in Slavjanska
Mogoče bi se vzdražil napovedovanja vojnih operacij in prvo poizkusili z kašnimi recepti za piškote ali potic? Rambutan ::
Malidelničar je izjavil:
Rambutan: Ne verjamem, da bi Evropa sredi spopada stisnila rep med noge in pustila neko pogorišče na Vzhodu Evrope. Tukaj se bo šlo do konca, EU ne bo tvegala, da bo imela v soseščini neurejeno območje, ki bo vzrok novih nestabilnosti.
Poleg tega je potrebno rešiti 'vzhodno vprašanje' o čemer sem že pisal.
Kaj misliš s tem, da se bo šlo do konca? Vstop Nato vojakov v direkten spopad z Rusijo? To bo vodilo v WW3...
Če se npr. samo Poljska odloči za vstop v konflikt, je to zelo nevarno za razpad EU.
Brez direktnega vstop v vojno pa mislim da je Zahod že izčrpal vse razumne možnosti za vojaško pomoč Ukrajini.
gozdar1 ::
Kako je ruski neuspeh v ukrajini ukrajinski polom. Ne pozabimo ukrajina se je obranila, rusija je doživeli strateški neuspeh. Očitno je ruska propaganda začela pripravo na "razglasitev zmage".
BBB ::
Malidelničar je izjavil:
Rambutan: Ne verjamem, da bi Evropa sredi spopada stisnila rep med noge in pustila neko pogorišče na Vzhodu Evrope. Tukaj se bo šlo do konca, EU ne bo tvegala, da bo imela v soseščini neurejeno območje, ki bo vzrok novih nestabilnosti.
Poleg tega je potrebno rešiti 'vzhodno vprašanje' o čemer sem že pisal.
Vzhodno vprašanje je precej bolj proti vzhodu, kot se ti dozdeva. Očitno bo Ukrajina izgubila glavnega sponzorja.
https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1...
Chalky ::
Se opravičujem če je že kdo objavil članek vendar Politiko poroča da se Bidnova administracija boji posledic neuspele ukrajinske protiofenzive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
Pac-Man ::
Ukrajinski padalci imajo JLTV
https://twitter.com/UKRINFORM/status/16...
Kiksnil sem, ni JLTV, ampak MXT-MV Husky, donacija VB
International MXT-MV @ Wikipedia
Joint Light Tactical Vehicle @ Wikipedia so obljubljeni, skupaj s podobnimi Oshkosh M-ATV @ Wikipedia na fotki spodaj
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/16506...
While Russians can hardly replace their losses and start equipping their units with ancient T-54/55, Ukrainians create entire new Brigades as the 37th Separate Marine Infantry Brigade, including gearing them up with western tech as those Oshkosh M-ATV or AMX-10 RC.
Pictures from the training ground.
Source: Telegram Mysiagin
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
Rambutan ::
Se opravičujem če je že kdo objavil članek vendar Politiko poroča da se Bidnova administracija boji posledic neuspele ukrajinske protiofenzive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched — and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive can’t begin.
Ja, malo bolj zgoraj sem objavil. Zaenkrat po Ukrajini pada dež povsod, napovedi so tudi slabe, že zaradi vremenskih razmer ni za pričakovat ofenzive prej kot v 3, 4 tednih. Zanimivo pa John Kirby napoveduje rusko ofenzivo spomladi, ko se izboljša vreme, 7D chess zgleda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023...
Source: John Kirby, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, in an interview with Voice of America
Quote: "We know that in the spring when the weather improves, and it's already starting to improve, that we can expect the Russians to want to go on the offensive in some areas, and we don't know exactly where or how they'll do that. But we want to make sure that the Ukrainians are able to better defend themselves against that, and if they choose offensive operations of their own, that they've got the capabilities to conduct those."
mackilla ::
Se opravičujem če je že kdo objavil članek vendar Politiko poroča da se Bidnova administracija boji posledic neuspele ukrajinske protiofenzive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched — and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive can’t begin.
Ja, malo bolj zgoraj sem objavil. Zaenkrat po Ukrajini pada dež povsod, napovedi so tudi slabe, že zaradi vremenskih razmer ni za pričakovat ofenzive prej kot v 3, 4 tednih. Zanimivo pa John Kirby napoveduje rusko ofenzivo spomladi, ko se izboljša vreme, 7D chess zgleda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023...
Source: John Kirby, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, in an interview with Voice of America
Quote: "We know that in the spring when the weather improves, and it's already starting to improve, that we can expect the Russians to want to go on the offensive in some areas, and we don't know exactly where or how they'll do that. But we want to make sure that the Ukrainians are able to better defend themselves against that, and if they choose offensive operations of their own, that they've got the capabilities to conduct those."
Do sedaj so se vse tvoje napovedi in mnenja tvojih virov izkazali za napačne. To je zelo pomirjujoče
fur80 ::
Se opravičujem če je že kdo objavil članek vendar Politiko poroča da se Bidnova administracija boji posledic neuspele ukrajinske protiofenzive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
Če ne bo prave priložnosti, lahko tudi na drugo leto prestavijo, samomora menda ne bodo delali! ;) Sicer pa nekaj delajo na levem bregu pri Khersonu, Rusi so pobegnili brez boja.
Rambutan ::
Tukaj pravijo, da so zamaknili na poletje. Ne vem pa kaj pričakujejo da se bo zgodilo poleti. Kakšne velike dobave niso napovedane. Meni zgleda, kot da se bojijo napasti, ker vejo da niso dovolj pripravljeni. Lahko je pa to samo zavajanje. Time will tell...
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/ukra...
Ukraine’s spring offensive has been postponed — owing to weather, a need for more ammunition and aircraft from western allies, and a spectacular hole in US security ecology, more explicitly the huge dump of super-top secrets by Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira, leaked via Discord (a social media platform).
All three factors must be uppermost in the thinking of Ukraine’s planners and commanders right now — and it is not all bad news.
The weather has been wet and soggy, turning the ground to mud — making manoeuvre very difficult for tanks, heavy guns and armoured carriers. Climate change is having its effect, shifting the seasons with storms and weird weather.
The new tanks from the allies, Leopard 2 and the British Challenger 2, have been going through their drills. Weighing over 65 tons, they require hard ground baked by summer sun. They will be the spearhead for the 11 or 12 strike brigades, which the Teixeira-Discord leaks say the Ukrainian forces intend to use for the upcoming offensive.
All this serves as a warning to Nato and its main allies that they have to up their game and their thinking this summer. There has been some hope, promoted by a mix of allies and the isolationist wing of the US Republican Party, that support for Ukraine could be wound down. But pulling back would make the long war longer, and spreading beyond Ukraine itself.
The Nato summit in Vilnius in July will have to ask some tough questions. Two per cent of GDP will likely be a minimum target on defence spending. More effective rapid deployment forces will be required to patrol Nato’s eastern border.
As for Britain, too much of this government’s defence policy is based on procrastination. Ukraine means in Churchill’s favourite phrase: action this day.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/ukra...
Ukraine’s spring offensive has been postponed — owing to weather, a need for more ammunition and aircraft from western allies, and a spectacular hole in US security ecology, more explicitly the huge dump of super-top secrets by Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira, leaked via Discord (a social media platform).
All three factors must be uppermost in the thinking of Ukraine’s planners and commanders right now — and it is not all bad news.
The weather has been wet and soggy, turning the ground to mud — making manoeuvre very difficult for tanks, heavy guns and armoured carriers. Climate change is having its effect, shifting the seasons with storms and weird weather.
The new tanks from the allies, Leopard 2 and the British Challenger 2, have been going through their drills. Weighing over 65 tons, they require hard ground baked by summer sun. They will be the spearhead for the 11 or 12 strike brigades, which the Teixeira-Discord leaks say the Ukrainian forces intend to use for the upcoming offensive.
All this serves as a warning to Nato and its main allies that they have to up their game and their thinking this summer. There has been some hope, promoted by a mix of allies and the isolationist wing of the US Republican Party, that support for Ukraine could be wound down. But pulling back would make the long war longer, and spreading beyond Ukraine itself.
The Nato summit in Vilnius in July will have to ask some tough questions. Two per cent of GDP will likely be a minimum target on defence spending. More effective rapid deployment forces will be required to patrol Nato’s eastern border.
As for Britain, too much of this government’s defence policy is based on procrastination. Ukraine means in Churchill’s favourite phrase: action this day.
fikus_ ::
Se opravičujem če je že kdo objavil članek vendar Politiko poroča da se Bidnova administracija boji posledic neuspele ukrajinske protiofenzive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
Če ne bo prave priložnosti, lahko tudi na drugo leto prestavijo, samomora menda ne bodo delali! ;) Sicer pa nekaj delajo na levem bregu pri Khersonu, Rusi so pobegnili brez boja.
Tam je močvirje in je vprašljivo, kako dobro izhodišče je za kopičenje opreme in vojakov.
Učite se iz preteklosti, živite v sedanjosti in razmišljajte o prihodnosti.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: fikus_ ()
mojsterleo ::
Nov članek v Politico, Bidnovo ekipo skrbi, kaj bo po morebitnem neuspehu ukrajiske protiofenzive. Napovedi so precej pesimistične, Ukrajinci nimajo velikih možnosti za uspeh. To je še en v vrsti člankov, ki pripravlja javnost na polom v Ukrajini.Zda krepijo vojaške kapacitete. EU je šla v skupno javno naročilo za municijo.
Kje ti vidiš konec vojne ali polom v Ukrajini?
fur80 ::
Se opravičujem če je že kdo objavil članek vendar Politiko poroča da se Bidnova administracija boji posledic neuspele ukrajinske protiofenzive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2...
Se samo meni zdi ali bi se protiofenziva morala začeti že nekaj tednov nazaj? Nekam dolgo se vse skupaj vleče.
Če ne bo prave priložnosti, lahko tudi na drugo leto prestavijo, samomora menda ne bodo delali! ;) Sicer pa nekaj delajo na levem bregu pri Khersonu, Rusi so pobegnili brez boja.
Tam je močvirje in je vprašljivo, kako dobro izhodišče je za kopičenje opreme in vojakov.
To sigurno, ampak bodo morali Rusi vseeno paziti tam in dati določene enote tja, da jim Ukrajinci tam ne naredijo štale. USA ima itak vse poslikano in vedo kje so Rusi in kje bi se dalo priti skozi. Če ne bo šanse letos pač ne bo, samo Rus bo mogel vzdrževati vedno 200 000 do 300 000 ljudi tam na fronti, kdo pa lažje plačuje in vzdržuje ljudi Rusija ali Ukrajina + EU + USA, + NATO + zavezniki, pa najbrž vemo.
Sem poslušal podatke včerja USA ima skoraj 900 miljardni vojaški proračun, EU ima skoraj 450 miljardni proračun, Kitajska 260, Rusija 80.
Bolgari, ki štancajo sedaj orožje 155mmm ni niti take razlike v ceni delovne sile z Rusijo, so verjetno tu tu nekje, tako da se bo to poznalo.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: fur80 ()
fikus_ ::
Ja, verjetno so videli, da ni RU vojske tam in so lahko šli čez brez boja.
Če gledaš google map, je ob reki neka terasa (vsaj vidi se tako), tam se je možno skriti/narediti zakone.
Če gledaš google map, je ob reki neka terasa (vsaj vidi se tako), tam se je možno skriti/narediti zakone.
Učite se iz preteklosti, živite v sedanjosti in razmišljajte o prihodnosti.
fur80 ::
Lepo stari provocira, ko se bo Poljakom vtrgalo, ga bodo pa kot Huseina ven iz oddtoka vlekli. :)
Yevgeniy #Prigozhin: "Those groups of #Ukrainian troops that are now inside #Bakhmut and are being attacked by us occupy an area of practically one kilometer by two kilometers. So they do not interfere in any way now, and the operational space right up to #Warsaw is already completely open, if you consider that it will be after the capture of Bakhmut".
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/165...
Yevgeniy #Prigozhin: "Those groups of #Ukrainian troops that are now inside #Bakhmut and are being attacked by us occupy an area of practically one kilometer by two kilometers. So they do not interfere in any way now, and the operational space right up to #Warsaw is already completely open, if you consider that it will be after the capture of Bakhmut".
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/165...
impidimpi77 ::
Moscow is threatening to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, viewed as critical for solving the world hunger crisis, if G7 nations ban exports to Russia.
Kuža lavrov spet nekaj laja, zgleda, da se bojijo dodatnih sankcij(ki pa baje itak ne delujejo).
Če bi nehali izvažati zdravila v rusijo, kolapsirajo v par mesecih.
Nevem koga čakajo, si zaslužijo točno to.
Kuža lavrov spet nekaj laja, zgleda, da se bojijo dodatnih sankcij(ki pa baje itak ne delujejo).
Če bi nehali izvažati zdravila v rusijo, kolapsirajo v par mesecih.
Nevem koga čakajo, si zaslužijo točno to.
Pac-Man ::
Bivši 'taljanski Alpino je bil spet aktiven, jaz vas bom pa spet zaspemal
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
Gonna see some nifty Ukrainian feints soon, before we're moving on to beachheads, breakthroughs, and breakouts.
Means time is running out for russian troops: either they frag their officers soon and flee to russia or the officers will flee to russia and leave the troops to die.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
According to rocket scientist and literal rocket scientist @John_A_Ridge potentially the most useful contribution to Ukraine in this Pentagon package is the hyper-modern IAMD IBCS EOC: "It's the greatest thing since sliced bread!"
https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status... [nit zakaj]
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
The Pentagon gave Ukraine at least one Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) Engagement Operations Center (EOC).
This is huge.
IBCS connects sensors and effectors never designed to work together into one command and control system, so air defense commanders can see and act on data across the entire battlefield more swiftly and use their shooters more efficiently.
This is the most modern air defense command and control system on the planet.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
ELINT News found information about the missiles delivered to Ukraine with the Patriot batteries: all of them optimized to shoot down ballistic missiles.
Therefore I assume that the Patriot batteries donated by Germany and the US will be deployed to protect cities. [nit od ELINT News]
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
This is a visual overview of the publicly known Ukrainian spring offensive units.
This formation is already more powerful than the operational forces of i.e. the British or French or German or Italian or Spanish Army... but this is not all what is heading to the front soon.
Besides the nine brigades above Ukraine is also training at least three additional brigades for the spring offensive. We don't know which brigades, but there is a lot of equipment for them that has recently arrived. Like:
🇵🇱🇨🇦🇳🇴🇪🇸 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
🇩🇪🇩🇰🇮🇹🇳🇱 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
🇨🇿🇺🇸🇳🇱 T-72EA MBTs
🇵🇱 PT-91 Twardy MBTs
🇸🇪 CV9040 IFVs
🇵🇱 Rosomak IFVs
🇺🇸 MaxxPro MRAPs
🇹🇷 BMC Kirpi MRAPs
🇨🇦 Senator AFVs
and hundreds of M113 from more than a dozen nations.
Ukraine is also readying artillery brigades, for which a lot of self-propelled artillery arrived in the last few weeks:
🇵🇱 Krab
🇸🇰 Zuzana 2
🇮🇹 M109L
🇬🇧 AS-90
🇩🇰🇫🇷 CAESAR 8x8
🇸🇪 Archer
In total Ukraine could equip around 18+ combat brigades for the coming offensive. Naturally the brigades will also include reconnaissance, air defense, engineer, logistic, et al. elements, but as the exact type of these unit is unknown I didn't include them in my graphic.
Besides combat brigades, Ukraine is also readying nine National Guard Offensive Guard brigades to clear out russian army remnants in liberated territories. Those brigades have less tanks and use lighter vehicles than the combat brigades, but they will be essential to secure the rear and lines of communication of the Ukrainian spearheads.
Key units will be the engineer regiments that have been equipped with Western armored engineering vehicles. They will open paths through the russian defensive lines for the combat brigades. 
Last but not least: we're all gonna admire the 808th Pontoon Bridge Regiment soon... russians on the other hand will HATE it for all eternity. 
In short: Ukraine's spring offensive will deploy the 2nd most powerful military formation on the planet to crush the russians.
And I am looking forward to see the russian military suffer a worse defeat than at the battles of Friedland, Tsushima, Tannenberg, and Warsaw combined.
Слава Україні!
PS: The most powerful military formation on the planet is the US Army's III Corps. But we all knew that.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
A few comments to questions raised about the graphic of the publicly known Ukrainian Spring Offensive brigades:
1) most self-propelled artillery is assigned to artillery brigades, which can fire with 60-80 howitzers on a russian position. AFAIK one artillery brigade will support every three combat brigades in the offensive, which means russian positions will get hit far harder than if each brigade had its own self-propelled artillery battalion.
2) the graphic is based on a slide from the Pentagon leaks that is all over twitter. The delivered equipment is from @oryxspioenkop's list. In short: all of this s public info.
3) Of course the Ukrainians might have reorganized some the brigades since they returned from training in NATO countries. I don't know; and if I knew you know that I wouldn't let you know about it.
4) Pairing Ukraine's best IFVs, the Bradley M2A2 ODS-SA, with ancient T-55S tanks in 47th Mechanized Brigade makes sense. Each Bradley comes with 10 TOW-2A/B anti-tank missiles, which means the brigade doesn't need main battle tanks to fight russian tanks. The Bradleys out-range and out-shoot all russian tanks. The T-55S will be used as assault guns to blow up russian infantry positions.
5) The wild mix of vehicles is absolutely irrelevant to the success of the offensive. Those vehicles need to be in the fight for 2-3 weeks. Yes, Western armies all try to have very few vehicles, but that is a cost-cutting measure dictated by pennypinchers in the finance ministries. For the offensive Ukraine needs all and will use all vehicles it can get. Right now the mix of vehicles in the brigades doesn't matter. All that matters is: to they work? do they protect? are there enough? is there enough fuel? is there enough ammo?
Have a look at Croatia's & Israel's war of independence. You TAKE all weapons into service. Only after the war you sort out the ones you can't maintain longterm.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
Gonna see some nifty Ukrainian feints soon, before we're moving on to beachheads, breakthroughs, and breakouts.
Means time is running out for russian troops: either they frag their officers soon and flee to russia or the officers will flee to russia and leave the troops to die.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
According to rocket scientist and literal rocket scientist @John_A_Ridge potentially the most useful contribution to Ukraine in this Pentagon package is the hyper-modern IAMD IBCS EOC: "It's the greatest thing since sliced bread!"
https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status... [nit zakaj]
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
The Pentagon gave Ukraine at least one Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) Engagement Operations Center (EOC).
IBCS connects sensors and effectors never designed to work together into one command and control system, so air defense commanders can see and act on data across the entire battlefield more swiftly and use their shooters more efficiently.
This is the most modern air defense command and control system on the planet.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
ELINT News found information about the missiles delivered to Ukraine with the Patriot batteries: all of them optimized to shoot down ballistic missiles.
Therefore I assume that the Patriot batteries donated by Germany and the US will be deployed to protect cities. [nit od ELINT News]
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
This is a visual overview of the publicly known Ukrainian spring offensive units.
This formation is already more powerful than the operational forces of i.e. the British or French or German or Italian or Spanish Army... but this is not all what is heading to the front soon.
🇵🇱🇨🇦🇳🇴🇪🇸 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
🇩🇪🇩🇰🇮🇹🇳🇱 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
🇨🇿🇺🇸🇳🇱 T-72EA MBTs
🇵🇱 PT-91 Twardy MBTs
🇸🇪 CV9040 IFVs
🇵🇱 Rosomak IFVs
🇺🇸 MaxxPro MRAPs
🇹🇷 BMC Kirpi MRAPs
🇨🇦 Senator AFVs
and hundreds of M113 from more than a dozen nations.
Ukraine is also readying artillery brigades, for which a lot of self-propelled artillery arrived in the last few weeks:
🇵🇱 Krab
🇸🇰 Zuzana 2
🇮🇹 M109L
🇬🇧 AS-90
🇩🇰🇫🇷 CAESAR 8x8
🇸🇪 Archer
In total Ukraine could equip around 18+ combat brigades for the coming offensive. Naturally the brigades will also include reconnaissance, air defense, engineer, logistic, et al. elements, but as the exact type of these unit is unknown I didn't include them in my graphic.
Besides combat brigades, Ukraine is also readying nine National Guard Offensive Guard brigades to clear out russian army remnants in liberated territories. Those brigades have less tanks and use lighter vehicles than the combat brigades, but they will be essential to secure the rear and lines of communication of the Ukrainian spearheads.
And I am looking forward to see the russian military suffer a worse defeat than at the battles of Friedland, Tsushima, Tannenberg, and Warsaw combined.
Слава Україні!
PS: The most powerful military formation on the planet is the US Army's III Corps. But we all knew that.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/165...
A few comments to questions raised about the graphic of the publicly known Ukrainian Spring Offensive brigades:
1) most self-propelled artillery is assigned to artillery brigades, which can fire with 60-80 howitzers on a russian position. AFAIK one artillery brigade will support every three combat brigades in the offensive, which means russian positions will get hit far harder than if each brigade had its own self-propelled artillery battalion.
2) the graphic is based on a slide from the Pentagon leaks that is all over twitter. The delivered equipment is from @oryxspioenkop's list. In short: all of this s public info.
3) Of course the Ukrainians might have reorganized some the brigades since they returned from training in NATO countries. I don't know; and if I knew you know that I wouldn't let you know about it.
4) Pairing Ukraine's best IFVs, the Bradley M2A2 ODS-SA, with ancient T-55S tanks in 47th Mechanized Brigade makes sense. Each Bradley comes with 10 TOW-2A/B anti-tank missiles, which means the brigade doesn't need main battle tanks to fight russian tanks. The Bradleys out-range and out-shoot all russian tanks. The T-55S will be used as assault guns to blow up russian infantry positions.
5) The wild mix of vehicles is absolutely irrelevant to the success of the offensive. Those vehicles need to be in the fight for 2-3 weeks. Yes, Western armies all try to have very few vehicles, but that is a cost-cutting measure dictated by pennypinchers in the finance ministries. For the offensive Ukraine needs all and will use all vehicles it can get. Right now the mix of vehicles in the brigades doesn't matter. All that matters is: to they work? do they protect? are there enough? is there enough fuel? is there enough ammo?
Have a look at Croatia's & Israel's war of independence. You TAKE all weapons into service. Only after the war you sort out the ones you can't maintain longterm.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
Unchancy ::
@Pac-Man:
Tole je pa videti kot priprava na "Olujo" - drugi del. Zanimivo.
Tole je pa videti kot priprava na "Olujo" - drugi del. Zanimivo.
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Rambutan ::
Jest berem, kaj pravi NYT o prihajajoči ukrajinski spomladne/poletne ofenzive. Pravijo, da bo to še zadnji poskus da si na bojišču izboljšajo položaj in da bi lahko začeli pogajanja iz boljšega izhodišča. Pravijo tudi, da je skoraj nemogoče, da bi Zahod lahko še enkrat dobavil toliko orožja in amunicije, saj na Zahodu pač nimajo zalog.
Saj vem, da se ponavljam, toda ta članek je spet pripravljanje javnosti na neuspeh ukrajinske ofenzive. Zanimivo pa je videt, da ste pro ukrajinski podporniki na ST še zmeraj tako optimistično razpoloženi. Upanje umre zadnje
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/p...
WASHINGTON — Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.
American and NATO allies have supplied Ukraine with extensive artillery and ammunition for the upcoming battle, and officials now say they are hopeful the supplies will last — a change from two months ago when weapons were only trickling in and U.S. officials were worried that the supplies might run out.
At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.
“Everything hinges on this counteroffensive,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and senior NATO official. “Everybody’s hopeful, maybe over-optimistic. But it will determine whether there is going to be a decent outcome for the Ukrainians, in terms of recovering territory on the battlefield and creating much more significant leverage to get some kind of negotiated settlement.”
While Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and create a widespread collapse in Russia’s army, American officials have assessed that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor.
Ukraine’s military faces many challenges — one reason that a stalemate remains the most likely outcome. Fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine this winter has drained ammunition reserves and led to heavy casualties in some experienced units.
Still, big gains are not guaranteed, or even necessarily likely. The battlefield is heavily mined by the Russians, and the Ukrainian advance will depend on whether Kyiv’s forces can effectively deploy mine-clearing equipment, much of which the West has provided.
Soldiers fighting in Ukraine have said that, so far, sophisticated maneuver warfare has been all but impossible to execute. They have struggled to coordinate their operations because they require strong communications, which is difficult because radio equipment differs unit to unit and is susceptible to Russian jamming. One soldier in Ukraine who participated in a recent failed attack in southern Ukraine said that coordinating anything above the platoon level — a unit of about 30 soldiers — remains extremely difficult.
Major questions about Ukraine’s artillery and other ammunition supplies remain. Kyiv’s supplies of air defense missiles and artillery rounds, critical to sustaining any push and to defend against Russian air attacks, could run dangerously low if its forces continue to expend ammunition at their current pace. After the offensive is over, there is little chance that the West can recreate the buildup that it did for Ukraine’s coming assault for the foreseeable future, because Western allies do not have enough supplies in existing inventories to draw from and domestic production will not be able to fill the gap until next year, experts say.
The Ukrainian military has been firing thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to hold Bakhmut, a pace that American and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardize the coming offensive. The bombardment has been so intense that the Pentagon has raised concerns with officials in Kyiv, warning them that Ukraine was wasting ammunition at a key time.
Saj vem, da se ponavljam, toda ta članek je spet pripravljanje javnosti na neuspeh ukrajinske ofenzive. Zanimivo pa je videt, da ste pro ukrajinski podporniki na ST še zmeraj tako optimistično razpoloženi. Upanje umre zadnje
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/p...
WASHINGTON — Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.
American and NATO allies have supplied Ukraine with extensive artillery and ammunition for the upcoming battle, and officials now say they are hopeful the supplies will last — a change from two months ago when weapons were only trickling in and U.S. officials were worried that the supplies might run out.
At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.
“Everything hinges on this counteroffensive,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and senior NATO official. “Everybody’s hopeful, maybe over-optimistic. But it will determine whether there is going to be a decent outcome for the Ukrainians, in terms of recovering territory on the battlefield and creating much more significant leverage to get some kind of negotiated settlement.”
While Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and create a widespread collapse in Russia’s army, American officials have assessed that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor.
Ukraine’s military faces many challenges — one reason that a stalemate remains the most likely outcome. Fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine this winter has drained ammunition reserves and led to heavy casualties in some experienced units.
Still, big gains are not guaranteed, or even necessarily likely. The battlefield is heavily mined by the Russians, and the Ukrainian advance will depend on whether Kyiv’s forces can effectively deploy mine-clearing equipment, much of which the West has provided.
Soldiers fighting in Ukraine have said that, so far, sophisticated maneuver warfare has been all but impossible to execute. They have struggled to coordinate their operations because they require strong communications, which is difficult because radio equipment differs unit to unit and is susceptible to Russian jamming. One soldier in Ukraine who participated in a recent failed attack in southern Ukraine said that coordinating anything above the platoon level — a unit of about 30 soldiers — remains extremely difficult.
Major questions about Ukraine’s artillery and other ammunition supplies remain. Kyiv’s supplies of air defense missiles and artillery rounds, critical to sustaining any push and to defend against Russian air attacks, could run dangerously low if its forces continue to expend ammunition at their current pace. After the offensive is over, there is little chance that the West can recreate the buildup that it did for Ukraine’s coming assault for the foreseeable future, because Western allies do not have enough supplies in existing inventories to draw from and domestic production will not be able to fill the gap until next year, experts say.
The Ukrainian military has been firing thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to hold Bakhmut, a pace that American and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardize the coming offensive. The bombardment has been so intense that the Pentagon has raised concerns with officials in Kyiv, warning them that Ukraine was wasting ammunition at a key time.
Unchancy ::
Medtem Rusija od Best Koreje poskuša dobiti "amunicijo" v zameno za hrano. Jaka posla... Zahod nima šans, bre. "Zima bude hladna".
Škoda časa za ta režimski forum.
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bbbbbb2015 ::
Ukrajinci so se prebili na levi breg Dnepra, brez bojev, ter zasedli borbeno linijo okrog 40km dolgo. To sicer ni dosti, da pa možnost Ukrajincem, da Ruse napadajo iz zaledja. Tudi z izvidovalno-diverzantskimi akcijami.
Rusi so začeli v Zaporožju omejen napad, brez neke globine. Ocenjuje se, da poskušajo Ukrajincem vzeti iniciativo iz rok.
Kje bodo Ukrajinci napadli, se ne ve. Pri Bakmutu so popucali nazaj tisti rov sever-jug, kar je bilo za pričakovati. Druga oskrbovalna pot še ni čisto prosta, ker jo Rusi (ta hip) še vedno vidijo. So pa Ukrajinci natepli Ruse v toliko, da tistega rova nimajo več. Verjetno si bodo Ukrajinci prizadevali, da potisnejo Ruse nazaj na izhodiščne položaje.
V Sevastopolu se sedaj ve, kaj se je zgodilo. Ukrajinci so uspeli razstreliti tovorno ladjo, naloženo s strelivom, kar se vidi iz posnetkov (sekundarne eksplozije) z dronom-čolnom. So pa Rusi prestregli strateško-taktično raketo Ukrajincev, namenjeno proti Krimskem mostu. Analitiki so mnenja, da Ukrajinci samo testirajo, kako in kje je varovan Krimski most. Rusi vztrajno kopljejo dodatne rove na Krimu.
Nekaj dronov (domnevno ukrajinskih) se je znašlo malo stran od Moskve, ter na še nekaterih drugih mestih. Mnenje analitikov je, da Ukrajinci poskušajo obremeniti rusko protiletalsko obrambo, da v kriznih razmerah Rusi ne bi vlekli vsega na Krim. To pa pomeni najmanj to, da Ukrajinci računajo na možnost, da vseh dobav Rusom ne bodo uspeli prekiniti.
Rusi so začeli v Zaporožju omejen napad, brez neke globine. Ocenjuje se, da poskušajo Ukrajincem vzeti iniciativo iz rok.
Kje bodo Ukrajinci napadli, se ne ve. Pri Bakmutu so popucali nazaj tisti rov sever-jug, kar je bilo za pričakovati. Druga oskrbovalna pot še ni čisto prosta, ker jo Rusi (ta hip) še vedno vidijo. So pa Ukrajinci natepli Ruse v toliko, da tistega rova nimajo več. Verjetno si bodo Ukrajinci prizadevali, da potisnejo Ruse nazaj na izhodiščne položaje.
V Sevastopolu se sedaj ve, kaj se je zgodilo. Ukrajinci so uspeli razstreliti tovorno ladjo, naloženo s strelivom, kar se vidi iz posnetkov (sekundarne eksplozije) z dronom-čolnom. So pa Rusi prestregli strateško-taktično raketo Ukrajincev, namenjeno proti Krimskem mostu. Analitiki so mnenja, da Ukrajinci samo testirajo, kako in kje je varovan Krimski most. Rusi vztrajno kopljejo dodatne rove na Krimu.
Nekaj dronov (domnevno ukrajinskih) se je znašlo malo stran od Moskve, ter na še nekaterih drugih mestih. Mnenje analitikov je, da Ukrajinci poskušajo obremeniti rusko protiletalsko obrambo, da v kriznih razmerah Rusi ne bi vlekli vsega na Krim. To pa pomeni najmanj to, da Ukrajinci računajo na možnost, da vseh dobav Rusom ne bodo uspeli prekiniti.
Malidelničar ::
bbbbbb2015: Kaj pa v sredini Bakhmuta? Ukrajinci načrtno prepuščajo iniciativo? Čeprav Wagnerjevci so skoraj že passe.
Glede Oleshkya so različne info, ampak tam imajo Ukrajinci že dolgo izvidniške akcije. Ocenjuje se, da je linija cca 20km, pred samim krajem. Težko pa se prebijeo tam ven, ker oskrbovanje s pontonskim mostom ni realno, bolj napadi v zaledju.
Glede Oleshkya so različne info, ampak tam imajo Ukrajinci že dolgo izvidniške akcije. Ocenjuje se, da je linija cca 20km, pred samim krajem. Težko pa se prebijeo tam ven, ker oskrbovanje s pontonskim mostom ni realno, bolj napadi v zaledju.
Don't invest like a Joe. Invest like a Simon.
fur80 ::
Ukrajinci mehčajo Ruse v zaledju. ;)
Greetings with many presents to the Orks from the Zaporizhzhia region
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status...
In čez eno uro poročajo o tem:
Explosions in Tokmak. Local report 12 arrivals!
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/...
Greetings with many presents to the Orks from the Zaporizhzhia region
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status...
In čez eno uro poročajo o tem:
Explosions in Tokmak. Local report 12 arrivals!
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/...
Rambutan ::
Ukrajinci so se prebili na levi breg Dnepra, brez bojev, ter zasedli borbeno linijo okrog 40km dolgo. To sicer ni dosti, da pa možnost Ukrajincem, da Ruse napadajo iz zaledja. Tudi z izvidovalno-diverzantskimi akcijami.
Od kje so pa informacije o zasedbi 40km dolgega pasu? IMO so zasedli majhen pas močvirja tiko ob Dnjepru (1500m x 500m), ki je bil bil v sivi coni.
Kje bodo Ukrajinci napadli, se ne ve. Pri Bakmutu so popucali nazaj tisti rov sever-jug, kar je bilo za pričakovati. Druga oskrbovalna pot še ni čisto prosta, ker jo Rusi (ta hip) še vedno vidijo. So pa Ukrajinci natepli Ruse v toliko, da tistega rova nimajo več. Verjetno si bodo Ukrajinci prizadevali, da potisnejo Ruse nazaj na izhodiščne položaje.
Ja, Rusi so se umaknili iz tistih rovov v bližnje gozdove, so pa tej rovi sedaj prazni, Ukiji jih niso ponovno zasedli.
Rusi medtem poročajo, da so vstopili v Khromovo. So pa to prva poročila, nič še ni uradno, možno je da Ukiji izvedejo protinapad in jih preženejo. Če bodo res uspeli zasest Khromovo, bo to kar kritično za Ukrajince.
https://twitter.com/Germogen_Moscow/sta...
Claims tickling in that Khromove (khromovo) has been taken by Wagner, and is being held against fierce counter assaults. We shall see. If this is how things settle it will be a cauldron-type situation for all remaining within Artemovsk (there will be no Bakhmut left)
Nekaj dronov (domnevno ukrajinskih) se je znašlo malo stran od Moskve, ter na še nekaterih drugih mestih. Mnenje analitikov je, da Ukrajinci poskušajo obremeniti rusko protiletalsko obrambo, da v kriznih razmerah Rusi ne bi vlekli vsega na Krim. To pa pomeni najmanj to, da Ukrajinci računajo na možnost, da vseh dobav Rusom ne bodo uspeli prekiniti.
To zna biti povezano s tisto miljonsko nagrado, ki so jo razpisali za ukrajinski dron v Moskvi na Rdečem trgu za 9.5.
https://twitter.com/nejmovirno/status/1...
The co-founder of Monobank and owner of Dovbush drone production announced a UAH 20 million reward for the drone manufacturer whose drone will fly and land on Red Square in #Moscow on May 9. The drone must have slogans such as "Glory to Ukraine" on it to be identified
Rambutan ::
Ropcke kritizira ukrajinsko strategijo držanja Bakhmuta za vsako ceno...
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu...
Left: Perfect #meatgrinder landscape to kill as many as possible Russian invasion forces w/minimum own casualties.
Right: The utter opposite.
From a military point of view, holding Bakhmut was a great mistake, which is also what every Ukrainian soldier tells you off the record.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu...
Left: Perfect #meatgrinder landscape to kill as many as possible Russian invasion forces w/minimum own casualties.
Right: The utter opposite.
From a military point of view, holding Bakhmut was a great mistake, which is also what every Ukrainian soldier tells you off the record.
fur80 ::
Ropcke kritizira ukrajinsko strategijo držanja Bakhmuta za vsako ceno...
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu...
Left: Perfect #meatgrinder landscape to kill as many as possible Russian invasion forces w/minimum own casualties.
Right: The utter opposite.
From a military point of view, holding Bakhmut was a great mistake, which is also what every Ukrainian soldier tells you off the record.
Ko bi vsaj napisal, kaj je pa druga alternativa. Če bi pa predali, bi pa skakal ti tule, da je bila to napaka. Ko bojo Ukrajinci napadli bo po tvoje napaka, ko ne bodo bo to napaka, če da Zahod preveč orožja je napaka, če ga da premalo je to tudi napaka.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: fur80 ()
fikus_ ::
Bahmut z okolico je (bil) močno utrjen (tudi betonski bunkerji), to se je gradilo od 2014. Za njim UA ni imela tako utrjenega ozemlja, sedaj verjamem, da so naredili več linij, ampak nič podobnega.
Zakaj eni in drugi vlagajo toliko naporov v Bahmut, ne vem, so predvidevanja, špekulacije, mesoreznica za eno/drugo stran, ... Razumem UA, da branijo svojo državo in nočejo popustiti, hočejo/rabijo pozitivne novice.
Zakaj eni in drugi vlagajo toliko naporov v Bahmut, ne vem, so predvidevanja, špekulacije, mesoreznica za eno/drugo stran, ... Razumem UA, da branijo svojo državo in nočejo popustiti, hočejo/rabijo pozitivne novice.
Učite se iz preteklosti, živite v sedanjosti in razmišljajte o prihodnosti.