Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

itak37 je 21. jan 2023 ob 14:48 izjavil:

Bomo videli kakšna bo cena dostavljanja orožja in zavračanja pogajanj.

itak37 je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:07 izjavil:

Meni se obratno zdi da je to zadnji obupan poskus Zahoda, da obrne potek vojne, oz. bolj da pokažejo da so poskusili vse kar je možno. Zadnje dni Rusi napredujejo na vsej fronti, ukrajinska vojska pa zgleda kot da je začela razpadati.

Bomo videli kdo ima prav

itak37 je 21. jan 2023 ob 20:34 izjavil:

Verjetno imajo res američani vse niti v rokah, vprašanje pa je če 100% kontrolirajo naci bataljone. Spodaj je pogovor predsednika Zelenskega z vodjo Azov odseka, ko jim je prišel ukazat naj prenehajo obstreljevat Donbas. Ne zgleda da ima Zelenski kontrolo nad njimi, prej obratno

https://twitter.com/denisrogatyuk/statu...

asdf_jklc je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:26 izjavil:

Ukrajina je izgubljena, zahod bi se moral spravit varovat meje EU,... ampak bomo raje se sami demitalizirali.

joel je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:45 izjavil:

fur80 je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:36 izjavil:

Rusom se mudi, ker pride orožja, da glava peče, (npr. 3 patrioti, zaprli bodo nebo) itak bodo sedaj navalili, kar imajo imajo, potem pa počasi čao in v Rusijo nazaj. Misliš, da so Rusi naredili mobilizacijo s 300 000 vpoklicanimi in nobene ofenzive, take sramote si niti Rusi ne morejo privoščit.

Za 300 tisoč vojakov, rabiš 30 tisoč oficirjev, ki jih Rusija nima.
Lahko pa vojake napodiš v napad tako kot v včerajšnem južno od Zaporožja. Samo teci proti ukrajinskim bunkerjem, pa strelaj proti njim. Če preživiš, preživiš, če ne, pa pač ne.

fur80 je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:49 izjavil:

joel je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:45 izjavil:

fur80 je 21. jan 2023 ob 21:36 izjavil:

Rusom se mudi, ker pride orožja, da glava peče, (npr. 3 patrioti, zaprli bodo nebo) itak bodo sedaj navalili, kar imajo imajo, potem pa počasi čao in v Rusijo nazaj. Misliš, da so Rusi naredili mobilizacijo s 300 000 vpoklicanimi in nobene ofenzive, take sramote si niti Rusi ne morejo privoščit.

Za 300 tisoč vojakov, rabiš 30 tisoč oficirjev, ki jih Rusija nima.
Lahko pa vojake napodiš v napad tako kot v včerajšnem južno od Zaporožja. Samo teci proti ukrajinskim bunkerjem, pa strelaj proti njim. Če preživiš, preživiš, če ne, pa pač ne.

Rusi so bolani, sedaj morajo upravičit mobilizacijo, če jo bodo čez par mesecev, ne bodo osvojili niti 1 mesta več, pustili bodo umret svoje ljudi na tisoče, za kraj ali dva, Ukrajinci se pametno umikajo, Američani so rekli, da bi morali še Bakhmut pustit in Solerdar, ker ni vredno ne življenj in ne orožja, potem pa napast, ko si pripravljen. Pač Ruski primitivci, vse za glavnega šefa Putlerja.

tattoo je 21. jan 2023 ob 22:36 izjavil:

A ne bi to potem vodilo v jedrski konflikt? Mogoče je to politično, da ruski narod "strašijo" pred zunanjim sovražnikom in tako lažje in uspešneje izvedejo novo mobilizacijo?

https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status...

Pac-Man je 21. jan 2023 ob 23:05 izjavil:

Chalky je 21. jan 2023 ob 22:28 izjavil:

Je možno da se pripravljajo večji napadi znotraj Rusije?

Ukrajina menda razvija kamikaze drone z dosegom 1000 km, je pa vse zelo v oblakih.

The oil price cap is costing Russia billions of rubles a day. How is it possible? And can Moscow do something about it quickly? Today's thread is about something Russia doesn't have but desperately needs: strategic oil reserves.

Western sanctions (EU embargo + G7 price cap, both introduced on December 5, 2022) force the Russians to sell their oil at a discount of around $30 per barrel. Russia is trying hard to convince the world that sanctions have no effect on it. Judge for yourself.

Russia exports about three million barrels of oil per day. When one barrel loses 30 dollars, the total daily loss amounts to 90 million dollars (two billion crowns). Measured from Moscow, the daily loss is 6.14 billion rubles a day.

To give an idea: the profit of the largest Russian oil company Rosneft for the first half of 2022 amounted to 7.2 billion dollars. A daily loss of $90 million will eat up all of this Rosneft profit in exactly 80 days.

Moscow is forced to sell oil at a deep discount because it has nowhere to store it. Of the three largest oil producers - the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia - Russia is the only one unable to regulate production. The Saudis have a giant Ghawar field (deserves its own thread). Americans have SPR.

SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve - is a quartet of reservoirs in Texas and Louisiana with a total capacity of 714 million barrels. It is the largest oil storage in the world and a "key tool of foreign policy" (quotation from the website of the US Department of Energy). The drawing of the SPR is approved by the president.

For comparison: the emergency reserves of oil and oil products in the Czech Republic are 2 million tons, i.e. roughly 14 million barrels (one ton of oil is equal to 6.8 to 7.5 barrels, depending on the type/sulfurity). All EU countries are required to have stocks equal to 90 days of normal consumption.

The size of Russia's oil reserves is a state secret; it is probably around 15 million barrels of oil. (In other words, it's about the same size as ours.) Of course, Russia produces nearly 11 million barrels of oil a day - more than it consumes itself. So what good would any magazines be for him?

This is exactly what the comrades in the leadership of the Soviet Union asked when the idea of ​​building strategic oil reservoirs in the USSR first appeared. It was the 1970s, and after the oil shock of 1973, the importance of stocks became clear.

But the Soyuz leadership looked like this:

The Soviet Union was permanently preparing for war with the rotten West, and all investments were measured by usefulness in combat. The idea to use the mined oil fields in the Volga for strategic oil reserves did not go through. The argument that the US was building its own large stockpiles didn't help either.

If Russia now had large enough oil reserves, it could significantly throttle exports - perhaps by 2 million barrels per day. This would drive up the price of oil and then gradually sell oil from storage. The US can do exactly this. The Saudis, in turn, regulate the production of the Ghawar field.

Russia does not have these options. It is therefore dependent on its new main customers, India and China (they now take 80 percent of Russian oil exports). They know that Moscow cannot store oil - the result is a massive discount of around 30 dollars per barrel. Gain for Asia, loss for Russia.

And finally, the official announcement: in April 2022, Russian officials announced that they will build large-scale oil storage facilities. They will be ready in four years. And of course bigger than the American ones.
We'll see in 2026.

Pac-Man je 22. jan 2023 ob 09:35 izjavil:

Prevedeno iz Češčine. Na povezavi citira še eno drugo svojo nit, na koncu so viri, nisem lepil.

https://twitter.com/VaclavBartuska/stat...

The oil price cap is costing Russia billions of rubles a day. How is it possible? And can Moscow do something about it quickly? Today's thread is about something Russia doesn't have but desperately needs: strategic oil reserves.

Western sanctions (EU embargo + G7 price cap, both introduced on December 5, 2022) force the Russians to sell their oil at a discount of around $30 per barrel. Russia is trying hard to convince the world that sanctions have no effect on it. Judge for yourself.

Russia exports about three million barrels of oil per day. When one barrel loses 30 dollars, the total daily loss amounts to 90 million dollars (two billion crowns). Measured from Moscow, the daily loss is 6.14 billion rubles a day.

To give an idea: the profit of the largest Russian oil company Rosneft for the first half of 2022 amounted to 7.2 billion dollars. A daily loss of $90 million will eat up all of this Rosneft profit in exactly 80 days.

Moscow is forced to sell oil at a deep discount because it has nowhere to store it. Of the three largest oil producers - the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia - Russia is the only one unable to regulate production. The Saudis have a giant Ghawar field (deserves its own thread). Americans have SPR.

SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve - is a quartet of reservoirs in Texas and Louisiana with a total capacity of 714 million barrels. It is the largest oil storage in the world and a "key tool of foreign policy" (quotation from the website of the US Department of Energy). The drawing of the SPR is approved by the president.

For comparison: the emergency reserves of oil and oil products in the Czech Republic are 2 million tons, i.e. roughly 14 million barrels (one ton of oil is equal to 6.8 to 7.5 barrels, depending on the type/sulfurity). All EU countries are required to have stocks equal to 90 days of normal consumption.

The size of Russia's oil reserves is a state secret; it is probably around 15 million barrels of oil. (In other words, it's about the same size as ours.) Of course, Russia produces nearly 11 million barrels of oil a day - more than it consumes itself. So what good would any magazines be for him?

This is exactly what the comrades in the leadership of the Soviet Union asked when the idea of ​​building strategic oil reservoirs in the USSR first appeared. It was the 1970s, and after the oil shock of 1973, the importance of stocks became clear.

But the Soyuz leadership looked like this:

The Soviet Union was permanently preparing for war with the rotten West, and all investments were measured by usefulness in combat. The idea to use the mined oil fields in the Volga for strategic oil reserves did not go through. The argument that the US was building its own large stockpiles didn't help either.

If Russia now had large enough oil reserves, it could significantly throttle exports - perhaps by 2 million barrels per day. This would drive up the price of oil and then gradually sell oil from storage. The US can do exactly this. The Saudis, in turn, regulate the production of the Ghawar field.

Russia does not have these options. It is therefore dependent on its new main customers, India and China (they now take 80 percent of Russian oil exports). They know that Moscow cannot store oil - the result is a massive discount of around 30 dollars per barrel. Gain for Asia, loss for Russia.

And finally, the official announcement: in April 2022, Russian officials announced that they will build large-scale oil storage facilities. They will be ready in four years. And of course bigger than the American ones.
We'll see in 2026.

itak37 je 22. jan 2023 ob 10:45 izjavil:

19 Leopardov bo zgleda osvobojenih! Sicer so to starejši modeli, ki so jih na vajah uporabljali za simulacijo nasprotnikovih tankov. Bolj kot resna pomoč meni to zgleda kot PR poteza, podobna 14 britanskim challengerjem, da bodo malo umirili vse ki zahtevajo pošiljanje Leopardov. Hkrati pa tipajo teren, kako se bodo Rusi odzvali. Volk bo sit, koza pa cela...

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/sta...

bbbbbb2015 je 21. jan 2023 ob 18:53 izjavil:

gozdar1 je 21. jan 2023 ob 18:17 izjavil:

Raje si preberita https://www.24ur.com/novice/tujina/tran... kjer lepo opiše rusko delovanje v post sovjetskem prostoru v zadnji 30 letih.

Brez zamere, manjka kontekst, o katerem pa ni nič napisano. Zato ti bom o tem kontekstu povedal jaz.

O tem kontekstu mi je povedal en Ukrajinec, ki je živel v Sovjetski zvezi in prišel takrat še v Jugoslavijo in je danes Slovenec, t.j. slovenski državljan. Ima neko maserstvo.

Moldavija je bila republika v Sovjetski zvezi, kjer je večinsko prebivalstvo govorilo romunsko. Dejansko so bili bolj lačni kot siti, svojo pripadnost so Moldavci izrekali bolj Bukarešti, kot Moskvi.

Sovjetska zveza je poslala masivno ekonomsko pomoč, toliko pšenice, toliko jekla, toliko denarja. Pomoč je ostajala, dejansko niti denarja niso izkoristili. Ničesar kupili, ničesar postavili.

Ko so Politbiro pripravljal pregled dosežkov (te in drugih pomoči), so seveda to opazili.

Pregled na licu mesta je pokazal, da so Moldavci živeli s slamo kritih kočah. Kakšna tovarna, kakšno jeklo.

Zato so Sovjeti poslali izkušene aparatčike, ki so jim ponudili ugodne pogoje za naselitev v današnji Transnistriji. Stvar je stekla. Dejansko vse postavljeno, zgrajeno, je bilo iz te masivne ekonomske pomoči.

Moldavce so dvignili iz pozne bronaste dobe v rani socializem.

Po besedah tega kolega Ukrajinca je Moldavija postala sinonim za zauganje državne pomoči. Zaugali so jo vse do zadnjega, do razpada SZ.

Ukrajinec je rekel, da je (po njegovem) Moldavija bila kot nek avion, tankajo gorivo, tankajo, motorji brnijo in se propelerji vrtijo, samo hudičeva reč ne samo da ne vzleti, niti premakne se ne na mestu.

V Sovjetski zvezi so bili vici, kjer so Moldavci vedno špilali siromake iz pozne bronaste dobe, zaostale kot fak.

Taka je ta reč.

BorutO je 22. jan 2023 ob 12:31 izjavil:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/el...

itak37 je 22. jan 2023 ob 12:19 izjavil:

LightBit je 22. jan 2023 ob 11:55 izjavil:

Poljak je rekel da se ne sekira če ne dobijo dovoljenja.

Ne bi se sekirali do trenutka ko bi potrebovali rezervne dele ali servis od Nemčije za poljske Leoparde. Sicer pa Nemci pravijo da jih uradno nihče ni zaprosil za reexport Leopardov.

Germany has acted like it wants out of the defence industry for a long time. It cannot produce tanks quickly. Successive government have cut investment into defence production, thinking that shipping fewer weapons was in the interest of "peace". It's now a boutique manufacturing sector.
The USA is picking up contracts that used to go to Germany, for example to Poland, which is now buying tanks from the USA and South Korea, when they used to buy Leopards from Germany, partly because after Russia occupied Crimea, Poland began to see Germany more and more as a weak and unreliable partner.
Now, Germany is being pushed to allow Leopards to be exported to Ukraine. If they agree, the countries that send them are being promised new contracts to buy American tanks, hurting Germany's defence industry (what's left of it) even more. If Germany refuses, and Ukraine loses more ground, Germany's security is harmed and Germany will be humiliated and blamed by neighbours and countries all over the world.
Germany could have, any time since 2014, and especially since Feb 2022, recognized the threat from Russia and reinvested in their defence-industrial capabilities. They have not. Germany has put itself into a lose-lose position, and they have no-one to blame but themselves.

strawman je 22. jan 2023 ob 13:27 izjavil:

Zanimiv komentar na temo nemškega zavlačevanja s tanki. Mnenja?

Germany has acted like it wants out of the defence industry for a long time. It cannot produce tanks quickly. Successive government have cut investment into defence production, thinking that shipping fewer weapons was in the interest of "peace". It's now a boutique manufacturing sector.
The USA is picking up contracts that used to go to Germany, for example to Poland, which is now buying tanks from the USA and South Korea, when they used to buy Leopards from Germany, partly because after Russia occupied Crimea, Poland began to see Germany more and more as a weak and unreliable partner.
Now, Germany is being pushed to allow Leopards to be exported to Ukraine. If they agree, the countries that send them are being promised new contracts to buy American tanks, hurting Germany's defence industry (what's left of it) even more. If Germany refuses, and Ukraine loses more ground, Germany's security is harmed and Germany will be humiliated and blamed by neighbours and countries all over the world.
Germany could have, any time since 2014, and especially since Feb 2022, recognized the threat from Russia and reinvested in their defence-industrial capabilities. They have not. Germany has put itself into a lose-lose position, and they have no-one to blame but themselves.

strawman je 22. jan 2023 ob 13:27 izjavil:

Zanimiv komentar na temo nemškega zavlačevanja s tanki. Mnenja?

Germany has acted like it wants out of the defence industry for a long time. It cannot produce tanks quickly. Successive government have cut investment into defence production, thinking that shipping fewer weapons was in the interest of "peace". It's now a boutique manufacturing sector.
The USA is picking up contracts that used to go to Germany, for example to Poland, which is now buying tanks from the USA and South Korea, when they used to buy Leopards from Germany, partly because after Russia occupied Crimea, Poland began to see Germany more and more as a weak and unreliable partner.
Now, Germany is being pushed to allow Leopards to be exported to Ukraine. If they agree, the countries that send them are being promised new contracts to buy American tanks, hurting Germany's defence industry (what's left of it) even more. If Germany refuses, and Ukraine loses more ground, Germany's security is harmed and Germany will be humiliated and blamed by neighbours and countries all over the world.
Germany could have, any time since 2014, and especially since Feb 2022, recognized the threat from Russia and reinvested in their defence-industrial capabilities. They have not. Germany has put itself into a lose-lose position, and they have no-one to blame but themselves.