Konflikt v Siriji

fikus_ je 9. feb 2017 ob 09:54 izjavil:

Smrekar, prosim za vir:"25 tisoč preživelih civilistov."

Hvala.

I'm Tweeting today from Mosul to say I was wrong: When the operation to free the city began 4 months ago, I thought it'd be a disaster. In December, I stood on the highway on the far eastern fringe of the city and watched ambulances screaming by carrying the dead + wounded. The wounded included an alarming number of Iraqi soldiers with some reporting the army's elite unit was facing unsustainable casualties.

Today 1/2 of Mosul is free & the city looks remarkable: As I write this, I'm driving past open kebab joints, fluorescent bulbs gleaming. I spent the day in Rashidiya, considered the most unsecure corner of liberated eastern Mosul. We took an army escort to be safe. Yet on the street, I saw a pigtailed girl playing a game with her brother; I saw flowering gardens; I saw a man on a ladder fixing lights.

Although there are craters from the airstrikes and some flattened buildings, the city is remarkably intact:

Although the signs of ISIS' occupation are everywhere including in this mural promising that they would conquer Rome, ppl are moving on

The most striking thing is the eastern 1/2 of Mosul doesn't look like it just emerged from 1 of the fiercest battles in recent memory. Crucially it doesn't look anything like other recently liberated towns from Sinjar to Ramadi, which were decimated.

Here's where I think the Iraqi forces deserve some credit: Whereas in Ramadi, civilians were told to flee, in Mosul they were told2 stay. Fliers were dropped over the city instructing ppl to shelter in plaxe. Many did evacuate but it wasn't the free 4all we saw elsewhere. This made the liberation of the eastern 1/2 more time-consuming and tricky since they couldn't just bomb at will. But bc they were trying 2preserve life, operation was also light on infrastructure destruction. Compare Ramadi:
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/worl...

What this has meant is although 1000s were displaced during the op, they are now streaming back and finding their homes still standing. This seems like a more sustainable battle plan, rather than the tabula rasa approach I saw in places like Sinjar (see my pic from 2015)

Don't be fooled - the road ahead is long and difficult: Western Mosul is more dense than the east and ISIS is bound to fight to the end. But seeing how strangely normal much of eastern Mosul looks, I feel hopeful tonight as I head back to my hotel

Colt1911 je 9. feb 2017 ob 20:24 izjavil:

Poskušaj to isto zahtevati od USA in poročaj kam so te poslali ! V PM ali v 3 strinine ?

As a former counter-narcotic planner, I can tell you back when I was there you didn't spray because it did more harm than good.

Contrary to popular belief, growing poppy doesn't make farmers much more than does growing foodstuff. Poppy growing does, in the absence of any more income, allow them to tie into patronage networks to resolve differences and gain protection.

If you spray for poppy, you basically render the farmers destitute. And they will then shoot at you. As early eradication efforts showed. If you want to eliminate poppy growing, you've gotta encourage famers to grow grapes and pomegranates, which make them lots of cash.

But to make that money you have to ship it to markets in the UAE and elsewhere. That requires infrastructure to work. You've gotta have safe roads to bring it to an airport. That airport needs a refrigerated warehouse to store them. Routine flights to ship; It also means you need power to keep the warehouse refrigeration running. And your supplies need to be reliable to interest outside buyers.

Oh, and by the way, pomegranates require large amounts of time to grow. IIRC about 5 years to reach maturity. That then means you've gotta get that infrastructure built and maintained, then wait for these crops to grow. Then wait for more and more farmers to see the crop prices and grow themselves.

Oh, and those farms also need proper irrigation, which means you've gotta build and maintain it. You also need water sources, which will cross property plots owned by other families, tribes, ethnic group. That also means you've gotta help those groups resolve their issues. Which often means dealing with decades-old feuds.

Poppy is really easy to grow. Doesn't take much water, it's resilient to temperature swings. Don't need to tend to it too much.

So, that's why counter-narcotics is hard. To do it in a way that meets your desired objective (gain security by draining illicit finance)...It takes time. And it means you'll have to spend on infrastructure that won't see use for years. Years. Which opens you up for SIGAR reports.

You can't bomb your way out of this. Can't spray your way out of it. Rather, it'll take time, money, and patience. Which we don't do well.

So fun fact: my first deployment was at Convoy Support Center Scania, in Iraq's Babil province. The Army built multiple major FOBs along MSR TAMPA (Highway 1), the road that went from Kuwait all the way to Turkey. Each of these FOBs were spaced so that HMMWVs could make it to each one on a tank of gas. These HMMWVs would escort "super convoys" of just hundreds of trucks, hauling all the supplies needed to sustain the war. One of the most common vehicles in these convoys? Fuel trucks. So. Many. Fuel. Trucks. You needed fuel for a lot of things. Not just your own vehicles, but the massive generators that provided you power.

Anyway, Scania was actually a pretty cushy place to live by the time I got their in 2008. The war had quieted down. Because that FOB sat on a major MSR, it had some super nice conditions. Chow hall was only ever closed for about 5 hours a day. Had a big gym, great MWR, lots of stuff. Of course, that meant my battery got sent to built a patrol base in the middle of nowhere, but...

Here's why I bring this up: Scania also had a fairly big helicopter landing zone. You could land a helicopter there pretty easily. That was because, at least until 2007 Scania also had a fairly robust aid station, one that had real experience treating burns. It had shrank down to just a normal battalion aid station when I got there. But the massive building it sat in had a big back wall. It had plywood holding up piles of sandbags, but you could see behind those walls murals. Nothing but names, ranks, and Purple Heart medals. The people at that aid station had noted every wounded SM that had come through it over that handful of years. Soldiers and Marines who'd escorted those fuel convoys. Young men and women covered in burns, missing limbs, all in a great deal of pain. That whole building was a monument for human suffering. And that suffering occurred for just making sure you could keep the lights on.

Imagine what it would be like hauling out crude oil on top of that. Under attack. And this time for no strategic goal other than spite. We lost people on our deployment there too. What it feels like to wave at a Soldier in your unit and not know you'd never see them again.

Nations have to go to war to fight for their interests. And that means sending its citizens off to be maimed and killed. But goddamn. Lets make sure it's for something more than trying to appear tough.

Šimpanz je 10. feb 2017 ob 09:25 izjavil:

Mato saj vidiš da večina prič od ISISA. A misliš da bojo lahko isis teroristi in tisti, ki imajo skrajna stališča po končani vojni normalno živeli z ostalimi. Jaz imam raje da pobijejo kakšnega preveč, kot pa kakšnega premalo in potem tisti pride v EU se usede v tovornjak in pregazi vse.

Samuel je 15. feb 2017 ob 13:58 izjavil:

Tale Almas poroča o Jemenu tako obupno pristransko, da je za kozlat.

dejansko imamo samo tole:
- vojska Savdske Arabije napada izključno civiliste
- Hutiji napadajo izključno vojsko SA

Patetično prozorno.

korenje3 je 19. feb 2017 ob 16:23 izjavil:

turčija medtem krade sirsko zemljo. premaknili so mejo 500m v sirski teritorij v idlib in alep provinci. ustrelijo pa vsakega ki se približa buldožerjem.

Colt1911 je 21. feb 2017 ob 17:57 izjavil:

Biznis je biznis

http://www.vesti-online.com/Vesti/Srbij...

fosil je 22. feb 2017 ob 10:26 izjavil:

Vsaj zaslužijo.
In kako to počnemo mi?
Mi orožje pošljemo v uničenje in za to mastno plačamo, nato pa se to orožje vseeno znajde na bojiščih.
Na bojiščih Bližnjega vzhoda našli orožje, ki ga je Slovenija predala v uničenje

Colt1911 je 22. feb 2017 ob 18:53 izjavil:

Z VHS 1 in 2 so opremljeni Iraška vojska in Kurdi , kakšen zaplenjen se je pa znašel tudi v rokah ISIS , kot tudi kakšna CZ M-21.

Mato989 je 25. feb 2017 ob 08:17 izjavil:

Zanimivo je da v Mosulu ni umrl niti EDEN civilist... namreč rtv in ostalih zahodnjaški mediji nič kaj dnevno ne poročajo, Allepo je bil v novicah non stop...

Kot kaže v Mosulu ne bo umrl niti eden civilist, ker ga osvobaja prava stran :) Kako prozorno, zdaj Amnesty nič ne joka da so ogrožena civilna ljudstva v Mosulu niti ni podatka koliko civilistov je notri :)

Samuel je 25. feb 2017 ob 13:35 izjavil:

Colt1911 je 25. feb 2017 ob 13:19 izjavil:

Je pa verjetno tole osvobajanje Mosula navadna potemkinova vas , en cajt se bodo delali kako se borijo , potem pa se bo ISIS nepoškodovan čez noč nenapovedano in brez razloga umaknil kam v sirijo in začel delati sranje Assadu.

Ja, USS Enterprise jih bo teleportiral iz obroča iraške vojske.

Samuel je 25. feb 2017 ob 13:35 izjavil:

Colt1911 je 25. feb 2017 ob 13:19 izjavil:

Je pa verjetno tole osvobajanje Mosula navadna potemkinova vas , en cajt se bodo delali kako se borijo , potem pa se bo ISIS nepoškodovan čez noč nenapovedano in brez razloga umaknil kam v sirijo in začel delati sranje Assadu.

Ja, USS Enterprise jih bo teleportiral iz obroča iraške vojske.