Zakaj so električni avtomobili prava stvar

fpbs je 7. nov 2013 ob 14:59 izjavil:

je tu že tretja nezgoda z ognjenimi posledicami

... there are 150,000 car fires per year according to the National Fire Protection Association, and Americans drive about 3 trillion miles per year according to the Department of Transportation. That equates to 1 vehicle fire for every 20 million miles driven, compared to 1 fire in over 100 million miles for Tesla. This means you are 5 times more likely to experience a fire in a conventional gasoline car than a Tesla!

... compared to 1 fire in over 100 million miles for Tesla

WarpedGone je 7. nov 2013 ob 10:48 izjavil:

Doseg je isti ali slabši kljub večjim baterijam

Povsem akademska "prednost". Šteje:
- doseg / cena
- uporabnost / cena
- zmogljivost / cena
- udobje / cena
- izgled / cena
- vozne lastnosti / cena
- varnost / cena
- vzdržljivost / cena
- enostavnost vzdrževanja / cena
- dostopnost vzdžrevanja / cena
itd.

V primerjavi s konkurenčno ponudbo seveda.

Obrnimo tablo: v čem je i3 dostojen znamki BMW?
Ali i3 vsaj dosega pričakovanja avtomobila ki nosi to značko?

i3 je avto kjer je leva roka podirala to, kar je delala desna - Avto poln protislovij.

WarpedGone je 7. nov 2013 ob 13:48 izjavil:

Tuki imajo vsaj ta kvizko, da se lahko zgovarjajo da gre za preizkušanje nove tehnologije, ki bo kasneje uporabljena tudi drugje..

WarpedGone je 7. nov 2013 ob 13:48 izjavil:

CFRP bodo servisiral v vsakem večjem kraju? Seveda, tako da bojo avto razglasili za totalko ker te je na parkirplacu nekdo mal preveč oplazu. To ni pleh, ki ga poklepa vsak garažni mojster s pol ure frej časa.

Potem pa reči, da avto izgleda obupno, ne pa da je obupen. Nikjer nisem rekel, da izgleda dobro. Zadeva je res futuristična, ampak po drugi strani je bila tudi Banglova petica za svoje čase izredno futuristična.

WarpedGone je 7. nov 2013 ob 23:59 izjavil:

Tekočinsko hlajena baterija zna bit precej težja od zračno hlajene in imet zarad tega slabši specifično energijsko gostoto. A ji tega nebi štel v minus ker je zračno hlajena baterija z "današnjimi kemijami" pač slaba poteza.

Statistično gledano, koliko MNZ vozil bi moralo dnevno goreti v primerjavi s Teslo (glede na to, koliko vozil je na cestah)?

The ICE fires are in the thousands and their distribution is governed by the normal distribution that most of your statistics are based on. The Model S statistics are so low that it's governed by Poisson statistics and that has completely different characteristics. I deal with low probability events daily (Higgs search at LHC) and have had to handle the differences and you can't believe how much difference there is. Your math here has error bars that are so huge that you cannot draw any conclusions really. In Poisson statistics 0-2 events are statistically inseparable so even if you expect 0 events and observe 2 you cannot claim disparity between the two measurements. With three you start to get somewhere, but only if you really expected 0 in the first place. If you expect even one (or worse ca 3), then one to about six events are fully compatible (or one to ten). You can start using your normal statistics when the number of incidents expected is largish i.e. my statistics teacher used to say that 30 and infinity are about the same, it's not quite that simple, but around that region the Poisson starts to converge towards the normal distribution...

so overall I'd have to do some more complex math and not going to do this from my iPad in bed, but three or one fires make no statistical difference at this point. They do however make a world of difference to public perception especially due to nearness in time. Physics is full of freaky occurrences where unlikely events happen at start and are averaged out over time. We almost claimed discovery in 2011 of a new particle when events started to pop up at high mass with a subtantial gap to anything expected. We expected ca 0.1 events and saw 3 in a very short timeframe all together. Papers were written and taistics were debated as it was borderline close to discovery threshold. For safety it was conceded that a fourth event would lock this down hard so the papers etc were held ready and a special priority analysis was run almost live on new data daily, some people didn't sleep for a week as this was big (fundamental physics changing big). Int he end the event didn't come. After a couple of weeks we went from red alarm to orange to yellow to green as background expectations caught up and we went from 99.9% probability down to 95% to 68% and dropped further. Statistical fluctuations happen, but nature takes care of it over time...

I for one am probably one of the people who scoffs on the other EVs and with good reason I think. What I see around here (not Tesla core market, but shitload of Leafs, MiEVs etc due to extensive incentives) is that people have developed a very concrete opinion on EVs because of what they see on the market:
1) they are ugly and will always be ugly because EVs cannot be built good looking
2) the range is enough only to drive in the city. Visiting parents/grandparents at the countryside is out of the question

Now Estonia did a major move to alleviate #2 by building a charging grid that has a charger every 50-60 km (ca 30-40 miles) that is capable of Type-II 22kW or CHAdeMO charging and that is allowing people to do a bit better, but I have plenty of friends that have tried the cars out by renting a Leaf or a MiEV and while it's quite ok in the city, the attempts they've made to reach grand parents living 100km away have required 3 recharges on the total trip. I myself rented a Leaf for 24h when I sold my Evo X in anticipation of the Model S arrival in a few months and while the torque etc was there and it was hence quite decent city car, the moment I hit the highway (I live 3 km out of town) and sped to 110km/h (ca 65 mph) the range started to drop 3 km for every 1km driven. With that I could only go ca 30-40km.

So the range anxiety is for real and a lot of people live outside of town and work in-town. Even for just in-town driving I drove in the town one saturday to take my wife to school, picked up my granny to go shopping and to the cemetery, drove home and in the evening drove back to pick up my wife and come home. That took a total of ca 75-80km of driving and I had to recharge for 30 minutes while shopping or I'd not have made it. This is crazy short range and the Leaf is one of the longest range cars.

Oh and they are ugly

Since I publicly said I'd be buying one of the first Model S's in Estonia I've been asked many times by people I know and I don't know about the car and the questions are always the same that spur from the misconceptions created by the compliance vehicles. There are tons of news about how the cars aren't really drivable in Estonian winter (-10..-30C) because the heating reduces the range to peanuts and even with heating at maximum you can hardly ever get to a decent temperature because they are underpowered.

We need a Model S to start showing people that EV is a viable option, we need to break the tabus first and introduce mass cars later. Until we do people will never adopt the EV as their SOLE car and what good does it do that some people have a second car as EV just for the fun of it. What we need is people to adopt EV as their only car. And to be honest even though I only need to travel > 100km a day ca once a week (during weekend) that's enough that I'd never consider buying anything below the 60-85kWh model. I chose the 85 kWh model mostly because I wanted even in the winter to be able to travel to the next biggest town and back without charging or at worst doing a 20-30 min charge total. And I have probably to take a teaching obligation that makes me drive this 240 mile round trip weekly.

So yes, Elon needed to prove that EVs are viable good cars and that's what Model S has done. I don't mind competition, but I do hate idiotic competition that screws with peoples perceptions of EVs and the MiEVs and Leafs sadly are doing that.

Koga pa ti smatraš za nasprotnika EV?

BMW z i3 električnim avtomobilom škoduje, ker
- je grd
- ima mizeren doseg

Bi bolj držalo vodo če bi twingec imel samo 10 litersk tank bencina, ker je to itak mestni avto in je 100km itak dovolj za večino dnevnih potreb. Pa še natankaš lahk v 5 minutah, no problem.

Bi tut bolj držalo vodo, če daljši doseg nebi bil tehnično možen - to dokazano ni več res.

Zakaj bi sploh tlačil drage baterije v mestni avtomobil, ki mora skoraj po definiciji bit cenovno dostopen?

Mogoče si zamenjal mestni avto za ceneni avto, ampak si se zmotil. Itak pa bi bil skrajni čas, da bi v mestih prepovedali avte, ki ropotajo in onesnažujejo zrak, ali pa jim to ropotanje in onesnaževanje vsaj mastno zaračunali.

Se komu sanja kje sploh dobiti pnevmatike za i3, dimenzije so naslednje