Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

Russia's Jan budget deficit widens as energy revenues slump

- Russia budget deficit soars to around $25 bln in Jan
- Energy revenues down 46.5%, total revenues slump 35.1%
- Spending jumped almost 60% in Jan year-on-year

25 miljard USD deficita v enem samem mesecu...

Pac-Man je 8. feb 2023 ob 10:28 izjavil:

Rusi prijazno ne zapirajo vrat na strehi, da se skoznje lahko meče bombe z dronov.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16...

Jaz sem bil v JNA vojski, tam so se tega problma zavedali, ljudi so pošiljali v zapor, če so med dežurstvom ali na požarni astraži puščali line tankov/oklepnikov odprte.

Samno ti povem, kimatizacija ruske/sovjetske tehnike je v takem kurtzu, da si to ne predstavljaš. Že zrak 25 stopinj in sonce požene temperaturo v oklepniku/tanku na 60 stopinj.

Enako pozimi, četudi je zrak +3, se na tank prenaša mraz, saj je ves kovinski. To zmrzuješ kot pes. Pa če si v tanku 8 ur in tank ni ves čas prižgan, to zmrzneš.

Zato puščajo line odprte, da se zver malo segreje in zlufta pozimi in malenkost ohladi poleti. Saj mislim, da je bila ena od nadgradenj Leoparda 2A4 klimatizacija. Pa poljske havbice enako.

Tako da to ni nemarnost, prej ali crknejo od mraza ali pa zadevo malo prezračijo in nekoliko segrejejo. Če ne bi bil dronov, to sploh ne bi bila perceptirana nevarnost. Čeprav,kot rečeno, v JNA za tanke na dežurstvu niso dopuščali odprtih lin.

to

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu...

My lawyers finally received a reply from Russia's investigative committee. There's no investigation against me (at least none known to Russia's top investigative body). Yet, I am on Russia's most wanted list for "a crime".. Talk about a whole State based on extrajudiciality.

Of course, it's quite possible that I am wanted for a traffic violation I committed before 2016 when I was last in Russia.

in to

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status...

Christo Grozev is on Russia wanted list, yet according to Russian authorities he's committed no crime, just in case you're wondering what justice and the rule of law means in Russia.

Kako sploh prideš mimo nasprotnikovih min? (nimam pojma o tej tematiki, kakšen Twitter thread / YT video bi bil koristen)

Ker če imajo Rusi dovolj min in jih znajo strateško razporediti, je hiter protinapad možen samo z velikimi izgubami, al se da mine sproti onesposabljati na kakšen način? Enako na Ruski strani..

mackilla je 8. feb 2023 ob 14:59 izjavil:

To zanima tudi mene. Vem,da so ukrajinci dobili kar precej nekakšnih mrap vozil. Po posnetkih se Rusi večinoma vozijo po minah kar z tanki in oklepniki. Zdaj ali nimajo za izvidnico kaj drugega pa ne vem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRAP

Mine se čistijo z čistilci min:


Težava s čistilci je, da so počasni, izgubi se tudi element presenečenja.

In sovjetski tanki in tudi ameriški (ne vem če Leopard 2) imajo možnost pripeti si 'anti-minski' plug:
Mine plow @ Wikipedia

Tega ne morejo imeti vsi tanki, samo tisti prvi v klinu.

Kar pa se tiče MRAPov,

so pa vsi MRAPI idejni nasledniki prvega vozila, odpornega na mine, Mambe:
https://tanks-encyclopedia.com/modern/S...

Ideja je dvojna:
- so visoko od tal, zelo visoko
- spodnji del šasije je oblikovan klinasto, kot čoln - da odbije udar mine.

Torej, da se razumemo, če MRAP pride na mino, mu odnese kolo, vendar pa mina ne prebije šasije. Je pa MRAP boljkone za odpis. Morda snamejo kaj z njega, kar je še uporabno, samo peljal več ne bo. Vojaki pa ostanejo živi.

Je pa še ena čudna zadeva, sovjetskega izvora:


Pehotno vozilo izstreli črevo, polno razstreliva, na vrvico, oz. zajlo, potem pa to detonira.

Ta reč je namontirana na pehotno vozilo in so videli ta vozila uporabljati kot navadne pehotne transporterje.

Ideja je, da udar eksploziva razstreli vse položene tankovske mine. Meni to zgleda nenormalna komplikacija, da sčistiš 100m poti. Potem pa kaj? Novo črevo in zopet 100m?

martincek1 je 8. feb 2023 ob 14:13 izjavil:

Kako sploh prideš mimo nasprotnikovih min? (nimam pojma o tej tematiki, kakšen Twitter thread / YT video bi bil koristen)

Ker če imajo Rusi dovolj min in jih znajo strateško razporediti, je hiter protinapad možen samo z velikimi izgubami, al se da mine sproti onesposabljati na kakšen način? Enako na Ruski strani..

Je pa še en visokotehnološki način. Bil je en posnetek, kako je dron iz zraka zaznaval zakopane in/ali odvržene mine.

Sicer je en članek:
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2016/apri...

vendar ta članek ne razkriva bistva.

Nizko-leteči dron ob sončnem vzhodu/zahodu (ne vem, zakaj ravno takrat) leti nizko (5+ m) nad tlemi. Zazna drugačno reflekcijo v bližnjem IR spektru tam, kjer je mina zakopana.

Obstaja tudi neke vrste tankec (kot tisti za remote razminiranje eksploziva), ki ima montiran radar (ki laufa na neke druge valove, nizkofrekvenčne), ki mapira kovinske oz. tudi recimo betonske zakopane stvari.

Koliko pa so te tehnološke zadeve praktične, pa je težko reči. Eno je razminiranje, ko je mir, drugo pa, ko je sovražnik 100+ metrov stran.

Obračaj kot hočeš, rusi so približno tam, kjer so bili. In vsakič, ko kam štartajo, štart pa že dolgo na enem in istem mestu, jih dobijo po betici. Razen če to šteješ kot uspeh. Kar v bistvu je. Za Ukrajino, seveda.

Estonski obveščevalci so blazno resni, čeprav imajo skoraj pol manj prebivalcev kot mi. Dolga nit & povezava na 70-stransko poročilo.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu...

The latest annual review of Estonian Foreign Intelligence is out, the first under the new directorship of Kaupo Rosin, featured here in Kyiv. Will post a few insights.

"Russia was much more ambitious in 2013-14 than the Kremlin officially admitted. According to EFIS’ information, Russia planned for the occupation of 11 Ukrainian regions."

"Despite the losses suffered and problems in producing war materials and new weapon systems, Russia intends to continue its military action against Ukraine in 2023."

"Russia’s strategic objectives remain unchanged despite military defeats; the subjugation of Ukraine, the erosion of Western unity and the transformation of European security remain at the core of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions."

...

"Despite pressure from Putin, the Belarusian Armed Forces have not intervened in the military operations in Ukraine and do not wish to do so in the future."

"Lukashenka cannot be sure that, if sent to Ukraine, his contract soldiers would not desert or join the Belarusian volunteers fighting on the Ukrainian side."

"[I]t is possible that Lukashenka will eventually be forced to send troops into Ukraine if the pressure from the Kremlin becomes too strong to withstand."

...

"The Russians are experiencing difficulties finding officials willing to work in occupied territories amidst or near hostilities."

"The Ukrainians’ fierce resistance has stopped Russia from occupying all the desired territory. Moreover, the occupiers did not find the expected support among the local population."

"Russia’s systemic weaknesses – constant lying and stealing within the state apparatus – painted a false picture of the situation in Ukraine for the Russian leadership."

...

"Western unity in imposing sanctions has been an unpleasant surprise to the Russian leadership. Those under sanctions seek to use their connections in the West to get off the list, while those threatened with sanctions try to stay off the list."

"Russia is diverting its diplomatic resources from the West to focus its activities on other parts of the world."

"Russia sees the BRICS nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members, and several Persian Gulf countries as promising partners. Its focus is on Iran and China, but anyone with historical, ideological or other conflicts with the West is welcome to join."

"EFIS has witnessed how the invasion of Ukraine ended the Russian foreign ministry’s hopes of playing a meaningful strategic role in the country’s foreign policy planning."

"At least as much as the international community, Russian diplomats were also kept in the dark about Putin’s plans to attack Ukraine. According to our information, they found out about it on the morning of 24 February through the media."

"Confusion and bewilderment ensued, with no one having prepared any talking points in advance. Some decided to switch sides, but the vast majority succumbed to mental resignation and then acceptance, which in some cases turned into angry outbursts of patriotism."

"Russian diplomats’ role in the West is reduced to a monotonous repetition of propaganda lies. Russian ambassadors, finding themselves in an information blackout, are regularly forced to improvise at international meetings."

...

"Russia is looking to Africa for a success story, for allies and for support for its anti-Western activities and narratives."

"[T]he volume of Russian trade with African countries has decreased from 20 billion US dollars in 2018 to 17.6 billion dollars in 2021. Russia overestimates its role and influence and lacks the capacity to implement its plans in Africa fully."

"According to our information, the equipment delivered from Russia to Mali broke down within a year; only one out of eight attack helicopters (Mi-35M, Mi-171) was operational at the end of 2022."

...

"Wagner members have tried to falsify evidence to suggest that French troops have committed mass murder in Mali. French and other Western troops have left Mali. This has left a security vacuum, which Wagner has not been able to fill and almost certainly will fail to fill..."

...

"Even if a rather unlikely scenario were to materialise and see the Russian regime collapse, paving the way for democratic elections, any attempts at democratisation would very likely be short-lived, similar to previous such attempts in Russia."

"In the coming years, the current regime led by Putin, or a slightly modified but equally undemocratic and coercive updated version, will most likely continue to hold power in Russia."

"A sudden power transition in Russia is possible in case a military defeat in Ukraine becomes inevitable – the likelihood of this scenario, however, is very low."

...

"At some point, Putin himself may have difficulty taming people increasingly emboldened by their growing influence, especially if Putin has authorised them to settle scores with their opponents."

"Prigozhin and Kadyrov are particularly dangerous in this context because each of them essentially has their own private army, from which their usefulness to the Kremlin and an important part of their influence derive."

...

"The FSB, SVR, and GRU can use almost any state authority, company, or organisation as a cover when necessary."

"As a rule, a cover is created in one of two ways."

"The cover organisation does not engage in intelligence work but pursues its statutory activities (governance, research, business, journalism, etc.) and has one or more positions staffed by intelligence services officers."

"Most undercover officers work in such positions and, to avoid exposure, must at least partly perform the tasks that would normally be prescribed for their job."

"An entire organisation is established as a cover for an intelligence service. It does not pursue the activities listed in its articles of association or only does so to a minimal extent to avoid suspicion."

"Since such organisations are largely fictitious, the officers working there can fully focus on intelligence activities."

"[I]n many cases, the other employees of the cover organisation can identify them because they just show up with an unknown educational and professional background and have different work duties than the rest of the staff."

...

"Spot the spies! On 16-19 November 2022, the 10th forum for so-called Russian compatriots living in the Baltic states was held in Roshchino, Leningrad Oblast. The forum participants included several individuals with ties to the Russian intelligence services..."

"The Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) and its representatives abroad – Russian research and cultural centres – are regularly used by the FSB and SVR..."

...

"The Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI)[6] operated under the SVR until 2009 and was designated as Military Unit 61360."

"Although it has since been officially subordinated to the Presidential Administration, RISI has always been led by former high-ranking SVR officers, currently by former SVR director Mikhail Fradkov."

"In our public threat assessment in 2021, we described the organisations established by the GRU for intelligence and influence activities, including the Russian Foreign Institute and the Inforos information agency."

...

"Since the 1990s, the Russian special services have been using the more radical pro-Kremlin clergy and church members with links to Soviet and Russian special services to undermine Ukraine’s statehood."

"[T]he Moscow Patriarchate, which established itself in Ukraine in the 17th century (and in Estonia and Latvia in the 18th century) in the wake of a Russian invasion, seeks to present itself as the 'mother church' of Ukrainians."

...

"Health permitting, Xi Jinping is very likely to stay in office for a fourth term, continuing to lead the party, the military and the country beyond 2027, as the 20th Congress’s reshuffle of the CCP leadership does not clearly point to a successor for Xi Jinping."

...

"Whereas China previously presented itself as a great power with regional ambitions, denying Western allegations of China’s global ambitions while keeping a low profile like Deng Xiaoping, it no longer hides its ambition of becoming a global superpower."

"Chinese intelligence services do not necessarily seek individuals with a similar worldview. They also target high-profile critics of China who would be willing to continue their criticism while spreading the message that China cannot be ignored."

...

"Central to the possible attack on Taiwan is Xi Jinping, who feels he personally has a historic mission to unite China by conquering Taiwan."

"Xi Jinping believes he has a sufficiently effective response to Western sanctions."

...

"Concerning Russia’s aggression, China asked its businesses to assess the prospects for the Russian economy over the course of at least 12 months, which shows that China is prepared to bet on a longer time frame in anticipation of Western unity collapsing."

"Xi Jinping probably has at least a decade of political life left. China is very unlikely to attack Taiwan in 2023, but the likelihood will increase with time."

...

"China always puts its own interests first when carrying out its plans, and although the outbreak of the war in Ukraine was probably not good news for China, it tried to quickly adapt and benefit from it, sometimes at the expense of its alleged partner, Russia."

"Russia is most concerned about foreign policy, where China’s vigorous activity has begun to undermine Russia’s position in international organisations and in regions that the latter considers part of its sphere of influence."

"Ceding positions to China in Central Asia, which Russia considers its traditional sphere of influence, is difficult for Russia, especially if it implies an increased Chinese military presence in the region."

...

"China was surprised by Western unity and determination in imposing large-scale sanctions against Russia."

"China will continue to put its interests first and behave pragmatically in relations with Russia; it will express support for Russia in its rhetoric and use Russian war narratives to undermine transatlantic cooperation."

"At the same time, China will likely refrain from endorsing the war, violating secondary sanctions or recognising the occupied territories in Ukraine as part of Russia."

"It will also likely avoid providing military assistance at the government level. However, this does not preclude the supply of goods with dual and military purposes to Russia by private businesses."

Bela hiša ze podala izjavo:

White House: Blog post by investigative journalist report regarding nord stream pipelines explosion "is utterly false and complete fiction"

Pac-Man je 8. feb 2023 ob 17:03 izjavil:

Chalky je 8. feb 2023 ob 16:44 izjavil:

BREAKING - Nord Stream gas pipeline bombings were a covert operation ordered by the White House and carried out by the CIA, a veteran investigative journalist claims.

...

Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter, has claimed that US deep-sea divers, using a Nato military exercise as a cover, planted mines along the pipelines that were later detonated remotely.

Pa ne Seymour. Tip v zadnjih 20ih letih ni slišal ruske teorije zarote, ki mu ne bi bila všeč.


Whatever happened to Seymour Hersh?
The strange story of how a legendary investigative journalist came to echo Assad's propaganda

Ja, je v članku omenjeno tudi to:

Once hailed “the greatest American investigative reporter”, Hersh’s more recent stories have been called into question. These included articles over how the US found Osama bin Laden and doubting the use of chemical weapons on Syrian civilians by Syria’s regime, which were criticised for relying heavily on anonymous sources and lacking hard evidence.

In his report on Nord Stream, Hersh has quoted an anonymous source “with direct knowledge of the operational planning”. He said that deep-sea divers from the US Navy’s Diving and Salvage Centre in Panama City, Florida, the largest diving facility in the world, planted C4 explosives alongside the pipeline, which were later triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane.

Hersh has claimed that on September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made “a seemingly routine flight” and released the sonar buoy. “The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1,” he wrote. “A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.”

Skratka čiste resnice nikoli ne bomo izvedeli.

Chalky je 8. feb 2023 ob 17:05 izjavil:

Pac-Man je 8. feb 2023 ob 17:03 izjavil:

Chalky je 8. feb 2023 ob 16:44 izjavil:

BREAKING - Nord Stream gas pipeline bombings were a covert operation ordered by the White House and carried out by the CIA, a veteran investigative journalist claims.

...

Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter, has claimed that US deep-sea divers, using a Nato military exercise as a cover, planted mines along the pipelines that were later detonated remotely.

Pa ne Seymour. Tip v zadnjih 20ih letih ni slišal ruske teorije zarote, ki mu ne bi bila všeč.


Whatever happened to Seymour Hersh?
The strange story of how a legendary investigative journalist came to echo Assad's propaganda

Ja, je v članku omenjeno tudi to:

Once hailed “the greatest American investigative reporter”, Hersh’s more recent stories have been called into question. These included articles over how the US found Osama bin Laden and doubting the use of chemical weapons on Syrian civilians by Syria’s regime, which were criticised for relying heavily on anonymous sources and lacking hard evidence.

In his report on Nord Stream, Hersh has quoted an anonymous source “with direct knowledge of the operational planning”. He said that deep-sea divers from the US Navy’s Diving and Salvage Centre in Panama City, Florida, the largest diving facility in the world, planted C4 explosives alongside the pipeline, which were later triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane.

Hersh has claimed that on September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made “a seemingly routine flight” and released the sonar buoy. “The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1,” he wrote. “A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.”

Skratka čiste resnice nikoli ne bomo izvedeli.

has quoted an anonymous source. Source is some dude

Substack sem prebral do konca, pojavi se tudi Theodore Postol, tako da je grupa obupa skoraj popolna

(“You want a signal that is robust enough so that no other signal could accidentally send a pulse that detonated the explosives,” I was told by Dr. Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and national security policy at MIT.

Nikjer ne pojasni zakaj ima A cev NS2 2 luknji, B cev pa nobene.

Če želiš verjet substack objavi 85-letnega raziskovalnega novinarja z enim anonimnim virom, kar izvoli. Nisi bil med tistimi, ki so vedno želeli več neanonimnih virov?

mojsterleo je 8. feb 2023 ob 20:09 izjavil:

bbbbbb2015 je 8. feb 2023 ob 13:37 izjavil:

Protiofenziva bi morala imeti dve konici:

- obkrožiti in zavzeti Svatove, to bi odrezalo vso nadaljnjo pomoč po železnici iz Rusije

- os napada v Zaporožju, do Melitopola. Potem imajo, z 150km dosegom orožja, na nišanu prav vse, vključno s krimskim mostom, ter večino postrojenj na Krimu. Morda česa na čistem

Proti Svatove in Kremini napadajo že nekaj mesecev - brezuspešno. Mobilizirance so tukaj Rusi uspešno uporabili v zaledju za izgradnjo obrambnih pozicij.

Napad proti Melitopolu je preveliko tveganje, saj bi enote bile izpostavljene z več strani in je možna obkolitev. Poleg tega so Ruske pozicije močno utrjene.
Napad hkrati v obeh smereh je povsem nerealno pričakovati v drugem letu vojne.

Trenutno izgleda, da se bo vojna odločila v Donbasu. Tja tiščijo Rusi na polno, Ukrajinci si ne bodo mogli dolgo zatiskati oči.

A predvidevaš,da se bo vojna po naslednji ruski ofenzivi končala? To mi je podobno nemškim sanjam,da je za zmago potrebna samo še ena ofenziva pa še ena pa še ena.....

Rambutan je 8. feb 2023 ob 20:55 izjavil:

Jest predvidevam da bo Bakhmut zdržal še dva, tri tedne. Hkrati s padcem Bakhmuta je možen še kak prodor iz severa ali zahoda proti Izjumu, da obkrožijo Seversk. Ukrajinci se bodo pomaknili na zadnjo obrambno linijo v Donbasu, Slovljansk, Kramatorsk, Kostantinivka.

Rusi bodo tudi to počasi in sistematično demilitarizirali in jo zrušili do nekje maja, junija. Takrat se bo zgodil kolaps ukrajinske vojske. Rusi imajo potem do Dnjepra samo ravnino, pričakujem globoke ruske prodore in obkrožitve preostanka ukrajinske vojske. Takrat sta možna tudi prodora iz severa in juga da blokirajo mostove na Dnjepru. Mogoče bodo takrat tudi končno zrušili kakšen most čez Dnjepr. Takrat bo tudi čas za zamenjavo Zelenskega, stavim na Budanova.

Se pravi ruska zmaga bo do junija Te bom držal za besedo

mailer je 8. feb 2023 ob 22:25 izjavil:

S potapljači bi se znala zgodit podobna zgodba kot pri specialcih, ki so (menda) pospravili Bin Ladna. A kdo spremlja kako so kaj leopardi odporni proti raznim projektilom. V Siriji je bilo videti kar impresivne ognjemete po zadetkih.

p:S. dodam še to, da je nekdo mački stopil na rep: https://www.rtvslo.si/svet/s-in-j-ameri... in je novica že povsod

Bodo morali podati kakšen dokaz razen trust me dude Za masaker v My Laiu je bilo slikovno gradivo in priče prav tako za Abu Ghraib. Tukaj pa neznani vir brez kakršnih koli dokazov. Neznani vir je lahko tudi eden izmed nas

mailer je 8. feb 2023 ob 22:52 izjavil:

Saj za kakšne ameriške fore tudi napišejo "neznani predstavnik CIA/FBI" je zatrdil...

A tisto pa ne verjameš?

'Less charismatic than Prigozhin' Wagner Group recruiters seek new fighters, but Russian prisoners are no longer interested

https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/statu...

Shocking, but unsurprising, stats on Russian tourism

"200,100 tourists travelled to Russia last year, according to ATOR’s breakdown of border data. That marks a 96.1% decrease from the 5.1 million tourists who visited Russia in 2019 before the pandemic."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/...

Rambutan je 9. feb 2023 ob 09:29 izjavil:

Počasi prihaja čas za vprašanje, kako smo prišli v tako situacijo.
1. So povsem odpovedale zahodne obveščevalne službe in se je celotno zahodno vodstvo zanašalo na informacije iz medijev, ki so podajali izrazito pozitivno pro ukrajinsko narativo?
2. Se je zahod zavedal da Ukrajina nima možnosti za zmago proti Rusiji, vendar so kljub temu žrtvovali Ukrajino?

Če je kdo zajebal, so to ruske obveščevalne službe z napovedjo lahke zmage. Kar spomni se, kako je Putin v govoru pred začetkom vojne pozival ukrajinsko vojsko in državljane naj prestopijo na njihovo stran. Dobil pa tole:



Sem prepričan, da če bi mu predstavili realno situacijo ne bi začel ofenzive. Zdaj pa je kar je in si rešuje fris.

gozdar1 je 9. feb 2023 ob 09:40 izjavil:

Prvo moraš sploh definirat zmago in poraz. KAr se rusov tiče sta to zelo fluidni kategoriji.

Ali kot pove Simonjanova "Kolikor nam rata, toliko si bomo vzeli."

Head of RT discusses Russia's goals

Najbolj verjetno je bil začetni ruski cilj sprememba oblasti in kontrola nad ukrajino. Nekaj, kar je bil dejansko že ruski cilj minska.

Rambutan je 9. feb 2023 ob 09:29 izjavil:

Rambutan je 8. feb 2023 ob 20:55 izjavil:

Jest predvidevam da bo Bakhmut zdržal še dva, tri tedne. Hkrati s padcem Bakhmuta je možen še kak prodor iz severa ali zahoda proti Izjumu, da obkrožijo Seversk. Ukrajinci se bodo pomaknili na zadnjo obrambno linijo v Donbasu, Slovljansk, Kramatorsk, Kostantinivka.

Rusi bodo tudi to počasi in sistematično demilitarizirali in jo zrušili do nekje maja, junija. Takrat se bo zgodil kolaps ukrajinske vojske. Rusi imajo potem do Dnjepra samo ravnino, pričakujem globoke ruske prodore in obkrožitve preostanka ukrajinske vojske. Takrat sta možna tudi prodora iz severa in juga da blokirajo mostove na Dnjepru. Mogoče bodo takrat tudi končno zrušili kakšen most čez Dnjepr. Takrat bo tudi čas za zamenjavo Zelenskega, stavim na Budanova.

Moram priznat, da sem malo razočaran nad pomanjkanjem odziva na mojo napoved. Se mi zdi da se tudi podporniki Ukrajincev že začenjajo zavedati, da je vojna izgubljena za Ukrajino.

Počasi prihaja čas za vprašanje, kako smo prišli v tako situacijo.
1. So povsem odpovedale zahodne obveščevalne službe in se je celotno zahodno vodstvo zanašalo na informacije iz medijev, ki so podajali izrazito pozitivno pro ukrajinsko narativo?
2. Se je zahod zavedal da Ukrajina nima možnosti za zmago proti Rusiji, vendar so kljub temu žrtvovali Ukrajino?

Kakšen odziv sploh pričakuješ na takšne budalščine? Američani so vedeli,da bi Rusija napadla medtem ko so rusifili trdili,da je Putin rekel,da ne bo napadel in to jemali za čisto zlato. Zdaj pa pričakuješ,da se bo z Rusi kdo pogajal.

1. So povsem odpovedale zahodne obveščevalne službe in se je celotno zahodno vodstvo zanašalo na informacije iz medijev, ki so podajali izrazito pozitivno pro ukrajinsko narativo?

Pac-Man je 9. feb 2023 ob 09:50 izjavil:

Rambutan je 9. feb 2023 ob 09:46 izjavil:

Mislim da imajo Rusi od začetka iste cilje, demilitarizacijo in denacifikacijo. Nisem zasledil da bi uradno Rusi kaj bolj podrobno deklarirali svoje cilje.

Saj v tem je problem - kaj to pomeni?

IMO ne večanje ruskega teritorija, pa to vseeno počnejo.

Demilitarizacija in denacifikacija je propaganda za sibirske pijance in podobne paciente.

fur80 je 9. feb 2023 ob 11:19 izjavil:

S takimi forami, dajo svojim vojakom veselje, da se poganjajo v smrt.

In na drugi strani enako.

fur80 je 9. feb 2023 ob 11:33 izjavil:

atubbuta je 9. feb 2023 ob 11:23 izjavil:

fur80 je 9. feb 2023 ob 11:19 izjavil:

S takimi forami, dajo svojim vojakom veselje, da se poganjajo v smrt.

In na drugi strani enako.

Razlika, je samo to, da če se Rusi umaknejo za svoje meje, je vojne konec, obratno ne velja.

Kakšen konec? Si hecen? Američani ne bodo dvignili sankcij 20+ let. Še 6 mesecev nazaj sem rekel 10+ let. Sankcije bodo privijali in luknje, kjer kaj skozi teče, flikali.

Rusi bodo namesto računalnikov imeli kroglice - lesene.

Ne bo se končalo nič. Morda vojna kot taka se bo. Samo za ZDA je to *ZLATA* priložnost. Tako zlate nobena CIA ne more urihtati. Šopalo se bo orožje na polno še naslednjih 10+ let.