Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

Russia moving to "all out war" (aka some form of mobilisation) really doesn't solve anything. It doesn't suddenly give them air superiority, it doesn't suddenly let them counter Ukrainian HIMARS/MLRS, it doesn't solve crippling morale and leadership issues in the Russian army.

It might provide them with increased numbers of poorly trained and incredibly poorly motivated conscripted infantry, but these are not going to fare well against the Ukrainian military - by now battle hardened and fighting for their homeland.

You can't create an army overnight - you especially can't create an army that can conduct the complex combined arms operations that modern warfare demands quickly. It takes time. And Russia has already been cannibalising training units to fill holes in their front line units.

Ukraine managed to quickly mobilise militias - the TDF - in February because they were purely defensive in nature. Civilians with a few days training and given AKs and NLAWs can defend a fixed position pretty effectively. Offensive operations are another matter entirely.

And then there's the domestic issues mobilisation causes - you're removing economically productive men from the workforce to create (poor) soldiers. That further damages the cratering Russian economy. And it'll destroy Russian public support for the war.

It's easy for Russians to ignore the war when they aren't being forced to go fight. But when they're getting conscripted - or their husbands, brothers, sons are - they're quickly going to have a totally different "cost/benefit" analysis of Putin's little adventure in Ukraine.

Malidelničar je 20. sep 2022 ob 18:53 izjavil:

Hm, kakšen menite, da bo odziv Rusov na mobilizacijo oz. kako usposobljeni bi sploh bili takšni naborniki? Sicer pa počakajmo še nekaj minutk do govora.

Fitting cartoon: approximate translation, "Russia will conquer the World" - "Draft notice" - "Peace, Russia is enough".

putin: Let's mobilize!

Because sending masses of untrained men, without heavy weapons, no NCOs, no competent officers, and without proper winter clothing, but with shit-logistics into a country full of people, who hate russians, worked out so well last time they tried...

In Zaporizhia, during the referendum, citizens will be bypassed by address, “teams” consisting of members of the Central Election Commission and police officers will pass through the residents, who will invite them to vote, the head of the Regional State Administration Yevgeny Balitsky said on the air of the Rossiya-24 TV channel.

He explained this for security reasons.

“Voting will take place from Friday [September 23], and people living on the territory of the Zaporozhye region, liberated from Nazism, will be sorted by address. [...] Many people will be visited by our team of people, which will consist of members of the commission, of course, accompanied by police officers so that there are no incidents, and people will be invited to vote by address. In this way, we protect residents from gathering in places where the Nazis can launch rocket attacks or plant explosive devices.

Those who for some reason will not be able to vote in the conditions of door-to-door bypass will be able to vote at polling stations, he added.

Pac-Man je 20. sep 2022 ob 19:51 izjavil:

xaxaxaxa, za "referendum" bodo hodili po hišah s policisti

https://t.me/rbc_news/58573

In Zaporizhia, during the referendum, citizens will be bypassed by address, “teams” consisting of members of the Central Election Commission and police officers will pass through the residents, who will invite them to vote, the head of the Regional State Administration Yevgeny Balitsky said on the air of the Rossiya-24 TV channel.

He explained this for security reasons.

“Voting will take place from Friday [September 23], and people living on the territory of the Zaporozhye region, liberated from Nazism, will be sorted by address. [...] Many people will be visited by our team of people, which will consist of members of the commission, of course, accompanied by police officers so that there are no incidents, and people will be invited to vote by address. In this way, we protect residents from gathering in places where the Nazis can launch rocket attacks or plant explosive devices.

Those who for some reason will not be able to vote in the conditions of door-to-door bypass will be able to vote at polling stations, he added.

Kdo je prišel na to dementno idejo?

Mislim, Krim je bil precej bolj "čista" situacija pa ga koliko držav priznava za del Rusije?

Pac-Man je 20. sep 2022 ob 20:16 izjavil:

Pravi da je kratka nit, pa sploh ni tako zelo. Zato dajmo samo začetek.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/...

...

Russia is absurdly centralised country. All the airlines, all the autoroutes, and most importantly all the railways are centred in one single hub. The city of Moscow. That is *by far* the most important logistical hub in the country

Let me give you an example. Consider the warehouse building statistics, 2004-2009. As you see, the lion share of new warehouses are being built in Moscow (red). For logistical reasons, almost all goods in Russia will pass through Moscow and will be store here. Same with soldiers

Just as trade flows necessarily pass through Moscow and goods are being stored on Moscow warehouses, human flows will be passing here as well. In case of mobilisation, Moscow will be flooded by the mobilised troops. Many of whom gonna be stuck here for long (cuz bad logistics).

in case of mobilisation, there will be:

1) tons of new, unmotivated recruits
2) aware they'll be sent to Ukraine, where they likely die or get maimed
3) stuck in Moscow, in proximity to the seat of power

That's revolutionary situation

That is btw exactly the scenario of 1917 revolution in Russia. In November 1916 Nicholas started suspecting his ministry for internal affairs Protopopov of disloyalty and started vetting other candidatures. He offered Protopopov's position to Krzhyzhanovsky.

Krzhyzhanovsky said yeah, I could be a minister, but I have a condition. There are 460 000 reserve troops quartered in the imperial capital of St Petersburg. These are mobilised peasants, very unmotivated. They know, they'll soon be sent to the WWI trenches, where they die.

I want you to:

1. Transfer some of them to the city police with an exemption from the military service
2. Relocate the rest the FUCK OUTTA THE CAPITAL

That's my condition if you want to see me as a minister. Nicholas ignored it. 3 months later the Russian empire fell.

It were not the "workers" or "peasants" who did the February and then the October revolution. It were first and foremost the 460 000 conscripts of the St Petersburg garrison. Who were stuck in the capital cuz logistics and found themselves close to the seat of power. The end

MK.ru reports the address might start after the evening news program which ends at 21:45 Moscow time (10 minutes from now), otherwise, it will be tomorrow.

fur80 je 20. sep 2022 ob 20:16 izjavil:

Si predstavljate rusko mobilizacijo sedaj pozimi?!Te pokličejo iz Moskve, kjer si na lepih 25 stopinjah v bloku, da se greš borit v Dombas za vukojebino na -20 stopinj, s škornji in mantlom, ki ga še stari pče ne dali gor za v štalo? Rusi bodo veseli in navdušeni nad specialno operacijo!

Zgleda, da Rusi praskajo iz vsepovsod, kar še kaj miga. Še Asada bodo pustili na cedilu, kar bo tam sledilo iz maščevanja, če se Rusi umaknejo nam je verjetno jasno.

General Staff: Russia to transfer paratroopers from Syria to Ukraine.

Due to a lack of personnel, the Russian authorities have decided to withdraw units of the 217th Airborne Regiment from Syria and transfer them to the frontline in Ukraine, the General Staff said.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta...

blay44 je 20. sep 2022 ob 21:13 izjavil:

Ker je dal dnar za tole posodobitev tele kante?
https://storage2.censor.net/video/3/tan...

Bostjan_321 je 20. sep 2022 ob 21:13 izjavil:

Much about nothing ?
Glede Putina in govora.

Bostjan_321 je 20. sep 2022 ob 21:02 izjavil:

Eden od urednikov nemškega časopisa TAZ Dominic Johnson meni, da se Putin norčuje iz svojega naroda, saj je napovedal prvi nagovor državljanom od začetka vojne, nanj pa zamuja že več kot eno uro in pol. Njegov nagovor bi se sicer moral začeti že ob 19. uri.

"Putin je napovedal nagovor narodu, ki ga ne začenja. Medtem ko vsi čakajo nanj, so oči sveta uprte v Moskvo, za Generalno skupščino ZN, ki se je Putin ni smel udeležiti, pa ni mar nikomur. Trolanje na najvišji ravni," meni Johnson.

Β

LOL ?
Da ni padel skozi okno?