Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

TezkoDihanje je 11. sep 2022 ob 18:11 izjavil:

ti ubogi novinarji, kakšne neumnosti pišejo
https://www.24ur.com/novice/tujina/ukra...

russian Su-25SM RF-95134, 04 "Blue" destroyed in Kharkiv oblast. This aircraft was part of the russian aviation unit on Kant air base.

Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the Kremlin's 'newspaper of record,' is as stodgy as you might expect, but in light of the extraordinary Ukrainian successes in the past few days, it's instructive to see what it's telling Russians today (and what it's not). A short thread

First, and most obvious, there's not even a hint of the Ukrainians' advance from Kharkov deep into Russian-held territory. Quite the opposite, instead there are tallies, drawn directly from MOD briefings, of alleged enemy losses (4000 KIA since 6 Sept)

At the same time, again picking up a recent theme of Kremlin propaganda, much talk of 'foreign mercenaries' fighting on Kyiv's side, although of course they too are, Russians are told, being hammered

But even so, the propagandists can't help but trip themselves up. The account of how a Mi-35 gunship crew allegedly thwarted a Ukrainian river crossing might be comforting to the paper's readers...assuming they don't look at a map, because by placing the action at Sen'kove, on the Oskil River (which seems to have been taken already), it is admitting just how deeply the Ukrainians have already gone. Presumably, they are relying on readers imbibing the triumphalist tone and not digging into the detail.

But this illustrates some wider issues.

1) The Kremlin seems stunned, and has not yet come up with a plan as to how to try and spin this, so to a large extent the media are ignoring the bad news until they get a directive. No one wants to show initiative lest they get it wrong

(Which is, incidentally, the same Soviet-style defensive thinking that is bedevilling the military, especially disastrous in a time of rapid and unpredictable change)

2) The Kremlin is happy to lie, but can't just ignore realities, and so is really struggling to create any positive narratives on issues where some basic fact-checking is possible.

This is the kind of dilemma we saw in Chechnya (x2) and the Sov war in Afghanistan, and tends to be a sign that the state's control over the narrative is cracking. It is not so much IMO that Russians up to now have necessarily *believed* the official line so much as that they have had no reason to both *disbelieving* it as that is dangerous both politically and also morally. I remember one parent of a vet from Afghanistan I interviewed for my PhD. She said "I didn't want to believe what people were saying about the war, because if I did, then I would either have to act or be a part of it."

This desire to avoid the truth as long as possible is a very human one, alas, but especially prevalent in authoritarian regimes. But in due course - and esp as the official narrative becomes less and less credible - it does break over time.

The evening TV 'shock jocks' will still rant, but they matter less than many believe. When even core state propagandists like RG are at a loss, despite their closeness to the administration, then this is a sign of political pressure, maybe even crisis.

Lots of images of abandoned Russian equipment and ammo in recently recaptured territory. I doubt the retreating Russian forces will be an effective fighting force for quite a while, which could be a major problem for Russia if their defences lack the depth they appear to.

And it should not be forgotten that this advance has cut off major supply routes to Russian forces and also put even more Russian bases and ammo dumps in Ukrainian artillery range.

We also have the factor of the psychological impact this is having, not only on the two sides fighting in Ukraine, but also their international supporters, both civilian populations and governments.

The last week has been a humiliation for Russia, something that is recognised by supporters on both sides, and a reflection of Russia's deeply corrupt society and the devastating consequences that can have.

I doubt Putin has ever looked so vulnerable to his own supporters, and I'm sure that even in his isolated bubble he's aware of that. Big beginning of the end vibes, but if you're going to make predictions assume the arc of history bends towards disappointment

In the beginning of August 2022, authorities in the occupied region expressed their desire to hold the referendum on September 11, 2022.[10][22] On August 26, the Electoral Commission for the preparation of a referendum in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast began work.[23]

Da je Rusija odprta do možnosti pogajanj z Ukrajino, je po besedah Lavrova na nedavnem sestanku s člani ruskega parlamenta in predsedniki strank dejal tudi predsednik Rusije Vladimir Putin. Stališče Putina je sicer, tako Lavrov, da bi morali tisti, ki pogajanja zavračajo oziroma z njimi zavlačujejo, razumeti, da bo to pogajanja z Rusijo zgolj otežilo.

Bostjan_321 je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:20 izjavil:

Da je Rusija odprta do možnosti pogajanj z Ukrajino, je po besedah Lavrova na nedavnem sestanku s člani ruskega parlamenta in predsedniki strank dejal tudi predsednik Rusije Vladimir Putin. Stališče Putina je sicer, tako Lavrov, da bi morali tisti, ki pogajanja zavračajo oziroma z njimi zavlačujejo, razumeti, da bo to pogajanja z Rusijo zgolj otežilo.

Zdej bi se pa že pogajali

Kar sprememba glede na kake 2 meseca nazaj, ko je vsa operacija tekla po planih in bo Rusija uresničila vse cilje.

Bostjan_321 je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:40 izjavil:

Bostjan_321 je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:20 izjavil:

Da je Rusija odprta do možnosti pogajanj z Ukrajino, je po besedah Lavrova na nedavnem sestanku s člani ruskega parlamenta in predsedniki strank dejal tudi predsednik Rusije Vladimir Putin. Stališče Putina je sicer, tako Lavrov, da bi morali tisti, ki pogajanja zavračajo oziroma z njimi zavlačujejo, razumeti, da bo to pogajanja z Rusijo zgolj otežilo.

Zdej bi se pa že pogajali

Kar sprememba glede na kake 2 meseca nazaj, ko je vsa operacija tekla po planih in bo Rusija uresničila vse cilje.

Stališče Moskve glede pogajanj je bilo sicer še prejšnji mesec, da je kakršna koli diplomacija za končanje konflikta v Ukrajini nemogoča.

Ahahaha, kera patetika.

kopriwa je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:57 izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:49 izjavil:

Belgorod je v temi

The Russian city of Belgorod is in a blackout also.
https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1...

Tako naj Ukrajinci sedaj postopajo. Za vsak blackout na njihovi zemlji vrnejo z enako mero na rusko stran. Samo jajca morajo imet, zahodne opreme je in bo dovolj.

TezkoDihanje je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:58 izjavil:

kopriwa je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:57 izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:49 izjavil:

Belgorod je v temi

The Russian city of Belgorod is in a blackout also.
https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1...

Tako naj Ukrajinci sedaj postopajo. Za vsak blackout na njihovi zemlji vrnejo z enako mero na rusko stran. Samo jajca morajo imet, zahodne opreme je in bo dovolj.

Elektriko lahko dobijo tud iz Poljske. Po moje ne bo nekega efekta. Ta elektrarna, ki je bila zadeta, je čez mejo zraven Harkova. Kot kaže so že dobili v Harkovu elektriko nazaj.

Malidelničar je 11. sep 2022 ob 20:01 izjavil:

Posnetki ruske vojske iz Čečenije leta 1996. Oprema ni bistveno drugačna kot danes leta 2022 v Ukrajini:

FireSnack je 11. sep 2022 ob 18:22 izjavil:

Taktika deluje. Amerika naj pošlje še za 20 milijard orožja in smo zmagali. Pomožnosti takega ki samodejno kolje.

Russians 'fled like Olympic sprinters' as Ukraine retook north-east

yansek je 11. sep 2022 ob 21:31 izjavil:

Srbski zgodovinar, politik Milan St Protic

Lonsarg je 12. sep 2022 ob 00:18 izjavil:

Sj če tko pogledaš logično vojno izčrpavanja proti US ne moreš zmagati. No ajde v teoriji se lahko US odloči da bo nehala podpirate, ampak dokler se US ne odloči neha bi rabil cel svet da izčrpaš US logistiko, ne pa ena boga Rusija.

pangro je 12. sep 2022 ob 02:11 izjavil:

Chalky je 12. sep 2022 ob 00:39 izjavil:

Ne vem če bomo še kdaj videli takšno vojaško silo, ki bo dominirala tako kot so ZDA. Morda Teh 10 milijard ki so jih do sedaj poslali v Ukrajino je za njih drobiž.

Lend lease je bil pa odobren za 40 miljard rusi se bodo moral res prekleto dobro potruditi upam da bomo zdaj vsaj nehal poslušat o rusofliskem nabijanju o počasnem napredovanju in nepremagljivem ruskem topništvu.

Compared With the Entire Federal Budget
The $54 billion in total U.S. aid represents about one percent of this year’s projected federal budget. It’s less than a tenth of the $750 billion the government is projected to spend on defense this year.
...
actual impact on the federal budget is much smaller because they are meant to be spent over 10 years. (The bulk of the funds is projected to be used sooner.) Over the next decade, the Ukraine aid represents less than a tenth of one percent of the estimated federal budget.