Ukrajina Part II

l0g1t3ch je 25. apr 2022 ob 08:45 izjavil:

Doma smo zagal.
V Franciji smo zmagal.

Zdej pa še v UA zmagamo pa bo :) Potem pa zaslužena penzija pred 40im :)

V Sloveniji smo dobili pro Rusko vlado.

Tako da ne vem o čem govoriš.

AngelOfDeath je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:36 izjavil:

l0g1t3ch je 25. apr 2022 ob 08:45 izjavil:

Doma smo zagal.
V Franciji smo zmagal.

Zdej pa še v UA zmagamo pa bo :) Potem pa zaslužena penzija pred 40im :)

V Sloveniji smo dobili pro Rusko vlado.

Tako da ne vem o čem govoriš.

Slovenija je nepomembna drugače bi gospodar poskrbel,da bi se zgodil puč. Niti tega nismo vredni

Tisti ki ste bolj na tekočem, kaj se ve ali smo blizu konca te vojne ali se bo še vleklo v nedogled?

Dolga 3d šah nit o Lukašenki. Postavi tezo, da samo glumi budalo, v resnici pa Putina vrti okrog prsta.
Videi na povezavi.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1518...

...

For years Belarus has been the main hole in Russian customs system. It's common knowledge in Russia. Consider the meme about the Belarusian octopuses Since the late 1990s Russian discourse focused on imperial restoration. Collapse of the USSR was a tragedy because we lost lots of land and people. Therefore, we must promote some sort of integration to lowkey take it back. Slavic Ukraine and Belarus were the priority of course Unfortunately, Ukraine showed very little enthusiasm in this integration. On the bright side, Belarusian dictator Lukashenko was much more cooperative. In 1997 he signed a Union Treaty with Russia. In December 1999 it was transformed into the Union State of Russian and Belarus Both sides acted in their self-interest. Self-interest of Kremlin was in boosting its legitimacy. President Yeltsin was absolutely hated, his rate of approval was probably about 6%. Integration with Belarus would boost his legitimacy because nobody in Russia saw it as integration.
Integration of such wildly unequal powers as Russia and Belarus would be viewed as the annexation of Belarus by Russia. Which would make a ruler in Kremlin a Collector of the Russian Land, kinda new Ivan the Great. Both Yeltsin and Putin needed this reputation desperately.
What was the self-interest of Lukashenko then? Well, that changed over the time. Everything changes over the time and human goals change, too. The first thing we need to understand about Lukashenko is that he is a smart guy. Like *really* smart, way smarter than Yeltsin or Putin I won't go too deep into details on Lukashenko's career or his rise to power right now. You can read a very decent account on his rise in English here. Just remember not to use sci hub to download this article for free. That would be unethical. Consider how Lukashenko is talking with Putin
I'm upset that Putin didn't promote me to a colonel. I'm still a lieutenant colonel. He promised to make me a colonel but didn't. If Putin makes me a colonel, then I'll make him a general
Last punchline is really good [video]

How does Lukashenko get away with such behaviour? By playing an idiot. Here for example he shows how the Special Operation is going "accidentally" disclosing how Ukraine will be divided after the victory
(Do we know it's the real plan of partition? Idk. But that's a statement) Lukashenko told that massacre in Bucha was a psychological operation by the Englishmen. Plate numbers of cars on which the English drove to Bucha can be provided by the Russian Federal Security Service.
Look on Putin. He's super uncomfortable. Because Lukashenko is doing sabotage [video]

...

How does Lukashenko get away with all of this? Well, by playing stupid. He's playing a naive but well-intentioned bumpkin. Ofc he's making mistakes, but don't judge him too harsh, he doesn't know any better. That's a strategy. His rural [=low status] image is also a strategy. In Russia Lukashenko is mocked as "kolkhoznik" - a collective farm worker. Kolkhozniks were low status semi-serf population which didn't even have passports (=couldn't move out) before 1974. There's a strong prejudice against rural people, combining social racism with just racism. Why is Lukashenko playing a naive kolkhoznik then? Well, that's a strategy. Nobody will expect smart scheming from him, whereas in fact he's a master schemer. Now we know Lukashenko as a dictator. But in early 1990s he was an oppositional politician and an anti corruption fighter. Fearless criticism of rotten political establishment made Lukashenko a leader of the opposition. Government didn't dare to just fake the elections, because they were shocked by the collapse of the USSR and didn't know how much fraud they are allowed to do under the new order Lukashenko was the most popular politician in Belarus. His platform was unobjectionable: against corruption and electoral fraud. And who'll advocate *for* corruption and electoral fraud? Nobody will. Thus he became an MP, then a leader of the opposition and finally the President Ofc after being elected he usurped power and built a dictatorship, aiming to create something like a hereditary quasi monarchy. Notice his minor son Kolya near his dad - also in uniform and in epaulets. The heir apparent Lukashenko is a skilled politician, far superior than Putin. The only example of almost Lukashenko level public politician in Russia that I know of is @navalny who is using a very similar strategy. I'll soon write a thread on why I stand agains the Muscovite liberal opposition So what did Lukashenko try to achieve by promoting the Union with Russia? Well, initially he wanted to rule Russia. The frai and unpopular Yeltsin couldn't rule for much longer. As long as Lukashenko hoped to succeed him, he pursued a policy of *genuine* integration with Moscow Lukashenko used to be wildly popular in Russia and was often viewed as a potential saviour of the Empire who would collect the Russian land It didn't work out. Frail Yeltsin appointed a young and healthy heir who soon became super popular by pacifying Chechnya. Now Putin became the Collector of the Russian Land, counting the tradition of the Dukes of Moscow. Lukashenko was outmanoeuvred. And his policy goals changed ...

Since 2000 Lukashenko has been building his dynastic quasi monarchy. He didn't break up with Russia ofc. Instead he milked it economically in every way possible. How could he do it? By luring Putin with prospects of integration. Putin was very predictable and Lukashenko used it Lukashenko could buy Russian resources for almost free. Union tariff system effectively subsidised the export of his uncompetitive goods to Russia. He borrowed massively from the Russian state and its "private" proxies. These loans were mostly never repaid. That's all well known ...

Lukashenko knows Putin *must* keep on integrating with Belarus. He's just too invested in the "Union" which allows him to play the Collector of the Russian Land and thus legitimise his rule. This makes Putin predictable and thus exploitable. That's how a tail wags the dog ...

Let me tell you a story that shows har far Putin will go in order to avoid displeasing Lukashenko. Uralkali is a potash fertiliser producer very close to Kremlin and personally controlled by Putin's friends. Sergey Chemezov, a member of Putin's inner circle is its chairman The fact that a potassium company is controlled by a Putin's friend is systemic. Why would Putin's personal friends (= the most dominant people in Russia) aim to control it? Because this industry is simple enough to generate cash for a long time under incompetent management Let's visualise the dominance hierarchy within Russian economy. Oil & gas are the simplest lucrative industries. Thus they are dominated by Putin's friends. Metallurgy is more complicated. So it's run by old 1990s oligarchs. Machinery is even more complex. So it's left for losers ...

Unfortunately Uralkali's CEO Vladislav Baumgertner angered Lukashenko. Why? Some say he competed with Belarusian potassium fertiliser producers too hard. Others argue that he showed disrespect crossing his legs when talking to Lukashenko After negotiations with Lukashenko in 2013, Baumgertner was arrested.
"Our PM invited that weasel. He crossed his legs and told: this won't happen, that won't be. He left, spit on our Cabinet House and drove to airport laughing. And there he [was arrested]" explained Lukashenko

After the arrest Baumgertner was put into a 6 square meter cell where he spent a month wearing the same suit he had during the negotiations with the President.
He and Russian oligarch Kerimov (in absentia) were charged with economic crimes and faced up to 10 years of prison Two Russian Deputy Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministry, and a President aide condemned the arrest of Baumgertner and demanded his release. Lukashenko redused. So Russian government had to indict him with crimes as well. On 14 October he was charged and on 17th arrested in absentia On October 21 Lukashenko declared he can release Baumgertner for a compensation of 1,5-2 billion USD. On November 21 he was extradited to Russia and put to a Moscow jail СИЗО № 5. Extradition was the only chance to get him out of Belarus, so Kremlin abided to Lukashenko's rules Rehabilitation of Braumgertner was very gradual. On December 10, 2013 he was released from prison and put under the house arrest. On September 17, 2014 he was released from the house arrest. And only on February 20, 2015 Russia finally cleared him of all charges

That's not the craziest part of this story. According to the Russian Izvestia newspaper in October 2013 Belarusian state security hunted Uralkali top managers *in Moscow*. They tried to arrest some of them on Leningradsky railway station in Moscow
www.iz.ru/news/559603 Solodovnikov, Evstratov and Samoilov managers noticed strange cars that followed them 24/7 all around Moscow. They spent whole nights parked near those manager's homes. Uralkali security officers approached those guys and they told straight out that they are Belarus KGB officers Uralkali security service reported:
- They don't really hide and act as if they feel their impunity. When we approach them and ask them to introduce themselves, they just show their [Belarus] KGB IDs
Lukashenko's agents spied over Russian managers in Moscow and didn't even hide Lukashenko's agents tried to kidnap Samoilov. They were pretty straightforward: Samoilov was on a train ready to depart from Moscow to St Petersburg. They just entered the train, and forced him out - but he screamed for police which eventually made them release Samoilov So what does the story of Putin and Lukashenko teach us? First, how easy it is to manipulate Putin if you understand him. Putin is *way* more powerful than Lukashenko. And yet, the latter still wags the dog. Because he pretend he'll give Putin the carrot and yet, never gives it Westerners are afraid to "provoke" Putin. or give him pretext for escalation. Lukashenko isn't afraid at all. Hardly a day passes without Lukashenko giving Putin yet another pretext for the escalation. And Putin backs off. Because pretexts play no role in his decision to escalate Second, difference between phenomena and noumena. If he looks as a buffoon, it may be his strategic decision. A buffoon can threaten, blackmail, insult with audience thinking it's silliness of a bumpkin who doesn't know any better and can bear no responsibility for his actions Lukashenko repeatedly exaggerated pro-Russian narrative, effectively reducing it to the absurd. And yet, nobody perceived it as a sabotage. Instead people saw it as a silliness of a buffoon and made memes on Lukashenko showing the map of intended Ukrainian attack on Belarus [video]
Third it shows that the "anti-corruption" and "anti-election fraud" agenda can be a perfect cover for a power hungry politician. Why? Because it's unobjectionable. Focus on something unobjectionable to silence anyone who will point out that your plans are quite sinister If we think in higher orders, the story of the Union State illustrates the phenomenon of something @SamoBurja might have possible called a dead institution. Originally it was designed to serve Yeltsin's and Lukashenko's self-interests and was very much workable
Yeltsin could legitimise his rule showing himself as an imperial restorer. Lukashenko hoped to inherit Yeltisn's power over Russia when he dies. But after Putin came to power Lukashenko had no motivation to aim for the *real* integration anymore. It was a dead institution now
On Belarusian octopuses. Since Belarus is the main hole in the Russian customs system pretty much all of smuggling to Russia goes through this country. When Russia prohibited European food imports in 2014, Russian market was flooded by the seafood produced in a landlocked Belarus For years Lukashenko smuggled European consumer goods to Russia. However, now he might earn much more by organising Russian technological import necessary to keep Russian supply chains and this war going on. That's why any European trade flows to Belarus must be stopped.

To ti je CNN povedal?

Netrunner je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:41 izjavil:

Tisti ki ste bolj na tekočem, kaj se ve ali smo blizu konca te vojne ali se bo še vleklo v nedogled?

Rusi imajo verjetno operativne zmoznosti se za zadnji vecji poskus, da obkolijo vsaj del ukrajinske vojske v Donbasu. Popolna obkolitev se zdi malo verjetna.
Vojna se bo definitivno vlekla, razen ce Rusi implodirajo. Za Ukrajince dvomim, da bi implodirali sploh, ker je 2/3 drzave varne. Kvecjemu kaksno raketo, jim obcasno lahko posljejo - samo to je premalo, da bi jim naredili vecjo skodo. Najvecji problem za zahodno in centralno ukrajino je verjetno naftna infrastruktura. Vsaj taka je moja intuicija.

l0g1t3ch je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:43 izjavil:

AngelOfDeath je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:36 izjavil:

l0g1t3ch je 25. apr 2022 ob 08:45 izjavil:

Doma smo zagal.
V Franciji smo zmagal.

Zdej pa še v UA zmagamo pa bo :) Potem pa zaslužena penzija pred 40im :)

V Sloveniji smo dobili pro Rusko vlado.

Tako da ne vem o čem govoriš.

V Sloveniji smo se znebili JJ smradu, to je glavno. Koliko bo nova vlada pro ruska bomo videli. SD in levica zagotovo vleče v tisto smer ampak nimata prevelike teže.
Sploh pa Slovenija ni nek faktor glede vojaške pomoči, medtem ko Francija pa je in Macron bo začel dostavljat havbice in drugo težko orožje.

Medtem ko je JJ hodil v Kijev. Je levica planirala obisk Putina.

Vidim da ti ni jasno da je tale "svoboda" samo preoblečena levica.
Isto delajo že desetletja. Ljudje pa vedno nasedajo na iste trike.
Se vidi da moraš imeti samo monopol nad mediji v Slovneniji - kar ga levica ima.


Francija je med drugim Rusiji dajala orožje med embargom. S tem orožjem sedaj napadajo Ukrajino.

AngelOfDeath je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:59 izjavil:

Vidim da ti ni jasno da je tale "svoboda" samo preoblečena levica.

Pa naj se kdo rece da levica niso dobri gospodarstveniki

@AngelOfDeath

seveda, Golob je ubistvo jankovičeva pozitivna slovenija. Golob itak samo vleče od poceni energije od NEK. Kar je itak no brainer za zaslužit.
Me prav zanima, zna golob vleči putinu tamalega da bo dobil poceni energente :D

Tukaj se vidi, da je nemčija totalno zavozila s svojo politiko do rusije. Rusija je ukradla krim in nemčija je takoj postala še bolj odvisna od plina. Saj bi lahko nemčija sama ukradla krim in črpala plin.

AngelOfDeath je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:59 izjavil:

Medtem ko je JJ hodil v Kijev. Je levica planirala obisk Putina.

Vidim da ti ni jasno da je tale "svoboda" samo preoblečena levica.
Isto delajo že desetletja. Ljudje pa vedno nasedajo na iste trike.
Se vidi da moraš imeti samo monopol nad mediji v Slovneniji - kar ga levica ima.


Francija je med drugim Rusiji dajala orožje med embargom. S tem orožjem sedaj napadajo Ukrajino.

ijj ni bil v Kijevu, tako da si napisal laž!
Vir za "levica planirala obisk Putina". Glede na to, da radi govorijo neumnosti, je to možno, vseeno prosim za kakšen link.
"da je tale "svoboda" samo preoblečena levica" Ne bi rekel. Goloba je ijj porinil v politiko.
Prosim za dokaz za zadnjo trditev.

scythe je 25. apr 2022 ob 11:10 izjavil:

koyotee je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:34 izjavil:

scythe je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:33 izjavil:

Lepo gori v Rusiji :D

A to je vladar fotkal z brazilije?

Nebi vedu, ne spremljal Rašistov

putin že dobiva čestitke za prekrasen ognjemet:

Russia - 3157, of which: destroyed: 1669, damaged: 52, abandoned: 259, captured: 1175


Tanks (551, of which destroyed: 275, damaged: 12, abandoned: 49, captured: 215)

Bjutiful :)

kow je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:47 izjavil:

Netrunner je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:41 izjavil:

Tisti ki ste bolj na tekočem, kaj se ve ali smo blizu konca te vojne ali se bo še vleklo v nedogled?

Rusi imajo verjetno operativne zmoznosti se za zadnji vecji poskus, da obkolijo vsaj del ukrajinske vojske v Donbasu. Popolna obkolitev se zdi malo verjetna.
Vojna se bo definitivno vlekla, razen ce Rusi implodirajo. Za Ukrajince dvomim, da bi implodirali sploh, ker je 2/3 drzave varne. Kvecjemu kaksno raketo, jim obcasno lahko posljejo - samo to je premalo, da bi jim naredili vecjo skodo. Najvecji problem za zahodno in centralno ukrajino je verjetno naftna infrastruktura. Vsaj taka je moja intuicija.

Tako nekako, da. Potem imaš tukaj vprašanje, koliko so Rusi motivirani za daljšo kvazi pozicijsko vojno. In koliko imajo sredstev za to, ker Ukrajinci nimajo dna. Nekako mi tudi ni smiselno, da bi se Putin šel sedaj splošno mobilizacijo, je kar nekaj indicev, da se mu to ne splača. Npr., tt vojaki ne bi bili trenirani, in vprašanje koliko imajo sedaj nekih dodatnih sredstev naprednejše bojne opreme. Mislim da klasične pešadije ne rabijo veliko. Trenutno bi rekel, da se ne da nekaj smiselnega napovedat, kako se bo zadeva odvijala v bližji prihodnosti.

Dont f*ck with ukrainians
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRJvzZNXMAA...

K, da ima sam zahod tovrstne zmoznosti. Ze "Hutiji" so zelo precizno napadli Savdsko Arabijo, pa cetudi s tuji pomocjo:).

Aston_11 je 25. apr 2022 ob 12:20 izjavil:

l0g1t3ch je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:04 izjavil:

Pa kaj je s temi požari/eksplozijami ?

Sabotaža, malomarnost, ukrajinski specialci čez mejo ?

Putin je Cia agent in deluje v ameriškem interesu. Smo že večkrat zapisali!

Za te stvari namreč ni mogoče kriviti fašističnih rusov in njihove nesposobnosti, ker so take stvari vedno planirane v desetinko milimetra!

Sicer jim nekam dosti gori, but, rusi so ultraspsoobni fašisti!

DarkSite je 25. apr 2022 ob 10:27 izjavil:

Ja bila je definitivno neka raketa glede na zvok?

https://twitter.com/EUFreeCitizen/statu...

Tipičen ruski samovžig. Kot da bi podkuril z VladarjemKOZ!

Verjetno res!

Da je Putin CIA agent dokazuje tudi sledeč članek.

Rusi našli način služenja denarja z vojnimi ujetniki. Če mama ujetega vojaka ne pošlje 5000 € ga bodo ubili. Sem hotel napisati, če lahko padejo še nižje, ampak to po mojih merilih sploh ni vojska, ampak lopovi in posiljevalci.

Aston_11 je 25. apr 2022 ob 12:20 izjavil:

Putin je Cia agent in deluje v ameriškem interesu. Smo že večkrat zapisali!

Za te stvari namreč ni mogoče kriviti fašističnih rusov in njihove nesposobnosti, ker so take stvari vedno planirane v desetinko milimetra!

Sicer jim nekam dosti gori, but, rusi so ultraspsoobni fašisti!

Ta video od 6:47 naprej je priceless

It's Time to Talk About the War in Ukraine (Hopefully Not my Last Video!)

Invictus je 25. apr 2022 ob 12:55 izjavil:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newslett...

Zgleda zahodni mediji mislijo, da je Putin zmagal...

Damijan je lepo povzel...

https://damijan.org/2022/04/25/politicn...

To so ameriška trobila. Tem ne verjamemo.

Mora pisat na RT.

l0g1t3ch je 25. apr 2022 ob 12:59 izjavil:

Invictus je 25. apr 2022 ob 12:55 izjavil:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newslett...

Zgleda zahodni mediji mislijo, da je Putin zmagal...

Damijan je lepo povzel...

https://damijan.org/2022/04/25/politicn...

To so ameriška trobila. Tem ne verjamemo.

Mora pisat na RT.

Chamberlain se očitno še kar ne zmanjka. Rusi ni eno leto koičili vojske na ukrajinskih mejah zato, da bi dobili "nevtralno" ukrajino. Zanima jih samo ukrajina pod ruskim nadzorom in tudi če danes sklenejo mir bo ta samo začasen.
Očitno se še kar pozablja , da janukovič ni podpisal sporazuma z eu ravno zaradi ruskega pritiska.

JPD precej na enostaven način gleda na vojno v UA in piše o dejstvih. (ko nekdo napiše, "dejstvo je", mi zazvoni alarm, da piše neumnosti).
Izzid vojne je zaenkrat še precej negotov. Končana bo, ko bo Putin to lahko pokazal doma kot zmago RU, Zelenski pa v UA, kot njegovo zmago. Zgubljajo pa oboji. Sedaj najbolj UA.

Ruske izgube po dveh mesecih "vojskovanja":

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a...

Jaz ne razumem, kako je lahko putler besen na zahod, ker Ukrajini dobavlja orožje, medtem ko je iz tega seznama razvidno, da je največji dobavitelj orožja Ukrajini kar ruska "armada" (vse kar je captured ali abandoned).

Niso pa rusi videti preveč pogumni. Če se počutijo ogroženi od precej močnejše vojske grozijo z jedrskim orožjem, sami pa nimajo prav nikakršnih zadržkov, da napadajo šibkejše od sebe, pri čemer so svetovno znani po svoji brutalnosti in uničevanju civilnih objektov.

https://mobile.twitter.com/skazal_on/st...

Zadnja putkotova maša, tip je živčen ful

mackilla je 25. apr 2022 ob 13:17 izjavil:

Takrat bi se moralo ukrajinsko vodstvo resno izpogajati z Rusijo, ki je takrat zahtevala samo troje: (1) da Ukrajina ostane nevtralna, (2) da Lugansk in Doneck dobita avtonomijo znotraj Ukrajine in (3) da se Krimu prizna status neodvisnosti.

Ukrajinsko vodstvo zelo dobro ve, da je laž način delovanja rusov. Lažejo sebi, lažejo svojim, lažejo vsem ostalim. Taki državi nimaš kaj zaupat. Žalostno, kako nizko je padla rusija pod putinom in tega ne bodo popravili še desetletja.

Drugace je cisto mogoce da Zelenski ni hotel Minsk 2 iz vojaskih razlogov. Tam ima njegova vojska zelo dobro vkopane frontne enote. Ce bi on to fronto moral v sklopu sporazuma odstranit bi zelo verjetno tale vojne (ker je zelo mogoce da bi Putij se vedno napadel) zgledala precej drugace.