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Ukrajinska kontraofenziva

Ukrajinska kontraofenziva

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TezkoDihanje ::

D3m je izjavil:

It has removed military coverage from other areas on their border and around the world


Kva pa še v Siriji dejalo?

Ahhhhh, sedaj vidim liveuamap.


Že spet ta ubožec od D3mentnega, ki si ni mogel zapomnit, da imajo vsi posti na liveumap, VIRe. KLIKNEŠ tam, kjer PIŠE "SOURCE". Just wow, a??

vir:
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status...
The United States believes Ukraine has taken out more than 100 "high value" Russian targets like command pots and ammunition depots, a senior U.S. defense official says.

--
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status...
NEW from Senior U.S. Defense Official on the war in #Ukraine:
Russia has committed nearly 85% of its military to the war in Ukraine... It has removed military coverage from other areas on their border and around the world.

Zgodovina sprememb…

D3m ::

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D
|HP EliteBook|R5 6650U|

TezkoDihanje ::

D3m je izjavil:

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D


85% strašne ruske vojske je v Ukrajini, fronta praktično stoji, in ti misliš, da gre Ukrajincem slabše. Dafuq nimaš nič v glavi.

D3m ::

Jup. Kar poglej kaj čivkaš. :D
|HP EliteBook|R5 6650U|

IL_DIAVOLO ::

A je bilo tako težko biti nevtralen? Zdaj pa mate.
Con il Milan nel cuore!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fS58IQczWWE&ab_channel=MariusMotora
Forza ragazzi!

TezkoDihanje ::

D3m je izjavil:

Jup. Kar poglej kaj čivkaš. :D


Whatever se ti dogaja v tvoji bebavi glavi... :|

---
lol, kje so si šli postavt svoje šotore, jao ej

Video from Ukraine's GUR of Ukrainian Warmate loitering munition strikes on a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS and concentration of troops near the Zaporizhzhia power plant.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1550...

Zgodovina sprememb…

D3m ::

Ko bo kontra ofenziva takrat bo nekaj veljalo.

Dokler pa gledam/o twitter zmage pa se lahko vrtimo v krogu. :)
|HP EliteBook|R5 6650U|

Pac-Man ::

Armchair Warlord je odjahal v sončni zahod. Njegova zadnja nit s prevodom iz rusofilije.

https://twitter.com/ArmchairCopelrd/sta...

Gang, I've accomplished what I set out to do here: promote Russian propaganda, spread cope to all who needed it, make a complete ass out of myself...

Bluntly, coverage of the war didn't fit what the Russian government were claiming, so I decided to discredit myself to support them. Now I'm discredited as a Russian propagandist, we're all better off for it...

Along the way, I shared my Wikipedia knowledge of war, and used this tragedy to shill my creepy book. I'm currently planning on releasing the next creepy saga, which I hope won't get me arrested as a sex offender.

But the weight of bullshit I've claimed has become too much; so I'm going to duck the fuck out now. before the tide turns.

Besides, I need to somehow find a job, & the Washington State Bar have been made aware of what I'm doing online. It's probably advisable for me to stop.

Of course I'm not deleting my account - this is the most attention I've ever had, and I'll want to try and sell my next shitty book.

But until that time, here's one last Waifu so that you don't forget what a degenerate I am. And yes, I have... "a collection".

Let's not forget the sweetest times we had together:
-the time Kyiv fell by the end of March.
-all the warcrimes we denied
-all the feints we celebrated
-that crazy time the Moskva didn't sink
-80% casualties = normal bridge crossing
-HIMARS being ineffective
And so many more...
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Pac-Man ::

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

lol, kje so si šli postavt svoje šotore, jao ej

Video from Ukraine's GUR of Ukrainian Warmate loitering munition strikes on a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS and concentration of troops near the Zaporizhzhia power plant.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1550...


GRAD je vmes med hladilnimi bazeni. Max 400 m od reaktorskih stavb in 200 m od servisne stavbe.

Boljši video:



Na žalost je križec & watermark, tako da je težko z gotovostjo trdit, da je res GRAD. Oblika je podobna, pa tudi lokacija je tam kamor bi ga postavil, če ne bi želel povzročiti požara znotraj jedrske elektrarne.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenilo: Pac-Man ()

blay44 ::

Malo sem preletel dogajanja v svetu, k naši novinarji
niso vredni pol ku***
Dronov ne bo!
https://www.syriahr.com/en/260494/

Mato989 ::

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

D3m je izjavil:

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D


85% strašne ruske vojske je v Ukrajini, fronta praktično stoji, in ti misliš, da gre Ukrajincem slabše. Dafuq nimaš nič v glavi.


Seveda, saj se defakto cela EU in USA bojujejo posredno proti Rusom... Me zanima kako dolgo bi Ukrajinci zdržali če bi EU in USA pomagali točno NULA... Samo Ukrajina vs Rusija...
Če sem pomagal, se priporočam za uporabo linka!
KUCOIN EXCHANGE link: https://www.kucoin.com/#/?r=E3I9Ij
BINANCE EXCHANGE link: https://www.binance.com/?ref=10161115

darksamurai ::

Mato989 je izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

D3m je izjavil:

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D


85% strašne ruske vojske je v Ukrajini, fronta praktično stoji, in ti misliš, da gre Ukrajincem slabše. Dafuq nimaš nič v glavi.


Seveda, saj se defakto cela EU in USA bojujejo posredno proti Rusom... Me zanima kako dolgo bi Ukrajinci zdržali če bi EU in USA pomagali točno NULA... Samo Ukrajina vs Rusija...

EU in USA se nič ne borita, samo pošiljata v UA srednje-staro robo da se potroši in naredi prostor za novo. Business as usuall. ;)
Če bi se NATO dejansko vpletel, Ruska vojska ne bi več obstajala.

D3m ::

Pac-Man je izjavil:

Armchair Warlord je odjahal v sončni zahod. Njegova zadnja nit s prevodom iz rusofilije.

https://twitter.com/ArmchairCopelrd/sta...

Gang, I've accomplished what I set out to do here: promote Russian propaganda, spread cope to all who needed it, make a complete ass out of myself...

Bluntly, coverage of the war didn't fit what the Russian government were claiming, so I decided to discredit myself to support them. Now I'm discredited as a Russian propagandist, we're all better off for it...

Along the way, I shared my Wikipedia knowledge of war, and used this tragedy to shill my creepy book. I'm currently planning on releasing the next creepy saga, which I hope won't get me arrested as a sex offender.

But the weight of bullshit I've claimed has become too much; so I'm going to duck the fuck out now. before the tide turns.

Besides, I need to somehow find a job, & the Washington State Bar have been made aware of what I'm doing online. It's probably advisable for me to stop.

Of course I'm not deleting my account - this is the most attention I've ever had, and I'll want to try and sell my next shitty book.

But until that time, here's one last Waifu so that you don't forget what a degenerate I am. And yes, I have... "a collection".

Let's not forget the sweetest times we had together:
-the time Kyiv fell by the end of March.
-all the warcrimes we denied
-all the feints we celebrated
-that crazy time the Moskva didn't sink
-80% casualties = normal bridge crossing
-HIMARS being ineffective
And so many more...


Aahahhahhah


But this came at a great cost! I’ve missed several Disney+ channel specials and don’t even know what my….


Krepavam. Car.
|HP EliteBook|R5 6650U|

Mato989 ::

darksamurai je izjavil:

Mato989 je izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

D3m je izjavil:

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D


85% strašne ruske vojske je v Ukrajini, fronta praktično stoji, in ti misliš, da gre Ukrajincem slabše. Dafuq nimaš nič v glavi.


Seveda, saj se defakto cela EU in USA bojujejo posredno proti Rusom... Me zanima kako dolgo bi Ukrajinci zdržali če bi EU in USA pomagali točno NULA... Samo Ukrajina vs Rusija...

EU in USA se nič ne borita, samo pošiljata v UA srednje-staro robo da se potroši in naredi prostor za novo. Business as usuall. ;)
Če bi se NATO dejansko vpletel, Ruska vojska ne bi več obstajala.


HIMARS je staro orožje? Droni so staro orožje? Daj ne nabijaj...

Naj nehajo pošiljat pa da vidimo kako dolgo bi Ukrajina zdržala brez pomoči od zunaj
Če sem pomagal, se priporočam za uporabo linka!
KUCOIN EXCHANGE link: https://www.kucoin.com/#/?r=E3I9Ij
BINANCE EXCHANGE link: https://www.binance.com/?ref=10161115

Jarno ::

Cepec! Spomni se, koliko pomoči so USA namenile Sovjetski Zvezi med WW2, da o pomoči pri osvobajanju Evrope ne govorim.
Potem pa je še bil Marshalov načrt etc.
#65W!

TezkoDihanje ::

Mato989 je izjavil:

HIMARS je staro orožje?

Itak je staro. Tako M270 kot HIMARS imajo v razvoju že naslednike z novimi tipi raket (z dosegom do 500km).

Naj nehajo pošiljat pa da vidimo kako dolgo bi Ukrajina zdržala brez pomoči od zunaj

Nič kaj takega se ne bo zgodilo, ker bi se z zasedbo Ukrajine, izsiljevanje Rusije samo še stopnjevalo.

Griffin R500 ::

Mato989 je izjavil:

darksamurai je izjavil:

Mato989 je izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

D3m je izjavil:

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D


85% strašne ruske vojske je v Ukrajini, fronta praktično stoji, in ti misliš, da gre Ukrajincem slabše. Dafuq nimaš nič v glavi.


Seveda, saj se defakto cela EU in USA bojujejo posredno proti Rusom... Me zanima kako dolgo bi Ukrajinci zdržali če bi EU in USA pomagali točno NULA... Samo Ukrajina vs Rusija...

EU in USA se nič ne borita, samo pošiljata v UA srednje-staro robo da se potroši in naredi prostor za novo. Business as usuall. ;)
Če bi se NATO dejansko vpletel, Ruska vojska ne bi več obstajala.


HIMARS je staro orožje? Droni so staro orožje? Daj ne nabijaj...

Naj nehajo pošiljat pa da vidimo kako dolgo bi Ukrajina zdržala brez pomoči od zunaj

Nisem še zasledil nekih video dokazov o uspešnosti NaziUSAEUNATO armiji.
Škoda za nas opazovalce, ki si želimo izenačene bitke. Rusi so postali že brezvezni. Pokazat bodo morali kaj novega. Očitno hranijo ognjemete za Odesso in Kyiev. Pravo praznovanje z ognjemeti bodo bili ukrajinci in tujske nazi lehije deležni v kratkem. Komaj čakam, pivo in kokice so na lagerju.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/K6o3GnXVHbIg/

TezkoDihanje ::

Griffin R500 je izjavil:

Nisem še zasledil nekih video dokazov o uspešnosti NaziUSAEUNATO armiji.


HAHAHAHA
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a...
imaš dovolj slikovnega materiala za par dni

Škoda za nas opazovalce, ki si želimo izenačene bitke.
Rusi so postali že brezvezni. Pokazat bodo morali kaj novega. Očitno hranijo ognjemete za Odesso in Kyiev. Pravo praznovanje z ognjemeti bodo bili ukrajinci in tujske nazi lehije deležni v kratkem.


Še 150 tisoč vojakov ne morejo nabrat v Ukrajini, pa bodo Rusi osvajali miljonsko Odeso pa Kiev. Mhm.

Komaj čakam, pivo in kokice so na lagerju.

Najdi si kakšno službo, da ne boš celi lajf na sociali.

Poldi112 ::

Jarno je izjavil:

Cepec! Spomni se, koliko pomoči so USA namenile Sovjetski Zvezi med WW2, da o pomoči pri osvobajanju Evrope ne govorim.
Potem pa je še bil Marshalov načrt etc.


Pomoči? Ravno dovolj, da so za njih nabutali nacije. Podobno, kot danes pošiljajo Ukrajini ravno dovolj orožja, da tepejo ruse, a ne dovolj, da bi lahko zmagali.

Marshallov plan je bil pa zgolj investicija v kolonije, ki jih imajo še danes na povodcu. Kar dobra investicija, mar ne? Oziroma pomoč, če verjameš propagandnim puhlicam.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.

tikitoki ::

Mato989 je izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

D3m je izjavil:

Wow.....potlej gre Ukrajincem slabše, kot sem mislil glede na tvoje linkane vire. :D


85% strašne ruske vojske je v Ukrajini, fronta praktično stoji, in ti misliš, da gre Ukrajincem slabše. Dafuq nimaš nič v glavi.


Seveda, saj se defakto cela EU in USA bojujejo posredno proti Rusom... Me zanima kako dolgo bi Ukrajinci zdržali če bi EU in USA pomagali točno NULA... Samo Ukrajina vs Rusija...


Mene zanima kolk casa bi ti zdrzal, ce bi te starci brcnili ven, cim si dosegel polnoletnost.

Poldi112 ::

nejclp je izjavil:

Ja, ni več prijateljska država. Ni ustrezen prevod?


Ne. Da nismo več prijateljska država implicira nevtralnost, kar pa mi kot neprijateljska država nikakor nismo.

Pa da vidimo, kako solidarni bodo naši "partnerji" pri bratski delitvi plina. Ter kako pozitivno bo ta umetno ustvarjena kriza vplivala na človekove pravice doma, ko bodo zavladali populisti.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.

TezkoDihanje ::

Mato989 je izjavil:

Seveda, saj se defakto cela EU in USA bojujejo posredno proti Rusom... Me zanima kako dolgo bi Ukrajinci zdržali če bi EU in USA pomagali točno NULA... Samo Ukrajina vs Rusija...


Zelo narobe. NATO vojske se izrazito zanašajo na letalsko premoč, ki jo v Ukrajini ni.

yansek ::

Boris Dezulović in nekatera njegova razmišljanja na temo:.. žrtvovanja življenja v vojni z vidika posameznika; nesmiselnosti vojn; vlečenja nekaterih vzporednic med vojno v bivši Jugoslaviji in Ukrajino ter Rusijo idr.

TezkoDihanje ::

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/...
Ukraine is ready to help Moldova get rid of Russian occupiers in 'Pridnestrovie', Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Jarno ::

Poldi112 je izjavil:

Jarno je izjavil:

Cepec! Spomni se, koliko pomoči so USA namenile Sovjetski Zvezi med WW2, da o pomoči pri osvobajanju Evrope ne govorim.
Potem pa je še bil Marshalov načrt etc.


Pomoči? Ravno dovolj, da so za njih nabutali nacije. Podobno, kot danes pošiljajo Ukrajini ravno dovolj orožja, da tepejo ruse, a ne dovolj, da bi lahko zmagali.

Marshallov plan je bil pa zgolj investicija v kolonije, ki jih imajo še danes na povodcu. Kar dobra investicija, mar ne? Oziroma pomoč, če verjameš propagandnim puhlicam.


Aha. Kaj bi bilo, če bi pomoči ne bilo, o tem pa ne bi, a ne?
#65W!

yansek ::

Bill Browder,poslovnež, nekoč eden od največjih vlagateljev v Rusiji.

nejclp ::

Poldi112 je izjavil:

nejclp je izjavil:

Ja, ni več prijateljska država. Ni ustrezen prevod?


Ne. Da nismo več prijateljska država implicira nevtralnost, kar pa mi kot neprijateljska država nikakor nismo.

Pa da vidimo, kako solidarni bodo naši "partnerji" pri bratski delitvi plina. Ter kako pozitivno bo ta umetno ustvarjena kriza vplivala na človekove pravice doma, ko bodo zavladali populisti.

Saj jaz raje vidim, da smo sovražna država, šlo je za vprašanje prevoda in uporabo hrvatizmov. Fašiste je jasno treba sovražiti in vse tiste, ki jih podpirajo.

darksamurai ::

nejclp je izjavil:


...Fašiste je jasno treba sovražiti in vse tiste, ki jih podpirajo.

Zakaj imaš potem dvojna merila pri *komunistih, ki so globalno gledano pobili mnogo več ljudi kot nacisti in fašisti skupaj?

*pustimo ob strani SLO zgodovino in se osredotočimo on-topic na Ruske Komuniste, ki so nekoč okupirali in pobili zelo veliko slovanov po celotni Sovjetski zvezi.

Zgodovina sprememb…

Poldi112 ::

Jarno je izjavil:

Aha. Kaj bi bilo, če bi pomoči ne bilo, o tem pa ne bi, a ne?


Nikjer ne pravim, da je prav ali narobe.

Pravim zgolj, da beseda pomoč pač ni primerna, ker so zgolj sledili svojim interesom - preprečiti hegemonojo v EU, ker bi bila s tem ogrožena njihoova dominanca v regiji.
Enako v Aziji.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
Walter Lippmann, leta 1922, o predpogoju za demokracijo.

nejclp ::

darksamurai je izjavil:

nejclp je izjavil:


...Fašiste je jasno treba sovražiti in vse tiste, ki jih podpirajo.

Zakaj imaš potem dvojna merila pri *komunistih, ki so globalno gledano pobili mnogo več ljudi kot nacisti in fašisti skupaj?

*pustimo ob strani SLO zgodovino in se osredotočimo on-topic na Ruske Komuniste, ki so nekoč okupirali in pobili zelo veliko slovanov po celotni Sovjetski zvezi.
Pa ne spet? že n-tič.

Ker sta v osnovi ideji različni. Ideja o enakosti za vse ni enaka ideji o večvrednosti nekaterih.

Lahko noč.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: nejclp ()

fur80 ::

Poldi112 je izjavil:

Jarno je izjavil:

Aha. Kaj bi bilo, če bi pomoči ne bilo, o tem pa ne bi, a ne?


Nikjer ne pravim, da je prav ali narobe.

Pravim zgolj, da beseda pomoč pač ni primerna, ker so zgolj sledili svojim interesom - preprečiti hegemonojo v EU, ker bi bila s tem ogrožena njihoova dominanca v regiji.
Enako v Aziji.


Poldi, pa ravno ti si zadnjič trdil, da nam je Rusija pomagala med WW2, pa sem ti jaz rekel, da so "zgolj sledili svojim interesom" (po tvoje), ker je pač Slovenija bila na poti na fronti med Rusijo in Nemčijo! :D Ko sem ti rekel, da kje in na kak način so nam pomagali, ni bilo odgovora, da bi videli, ali je šlo za pomoč ali so šli slučajno tukaj ćez! Posiljevali pa so, to pa vem 100%, če že pomagali niso, poznam še živeče priče posilstev! ;) Če bi nam Rusi tako pomagali, misliš, da bi bilo toliko imformbirojevcev?

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: fur80 ()

Unchancy ::

nejclp je izjavil:

fur80 je izjavil:

nejclp je izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

fur80 je izjavil:

Rusija nas je danes uradno sprejela kot sovražno državo, bravo, upam, da smo tudi mi tukaj kaj prispevali k temu! ;) Čestitke fantje!


neprijateljsko, ne sovražno

semantika, semantika...

A zdaj bomo zaradi kurčevih Rusov še hrvatizme uvajali?


hehe... v glavnem se ne strinjajo z nami, kar nam je lahko v ponos! :D glede na seznam njim prijateljskih držav! ;)

Komot bi napisali, da Slovenija ni več prijateljska država. Ne pa da je neprijateljska. Ko smo bili v skupni državi, se je uporabljalo manj hrvatizmov, kot se jih zdaj.

Točno to. Eni ali ne znajo drugače ali pa nočejo.
Škoda časa za ta režimski forum.
Pobrišite post, iz bunkerja vas že kličejo.
Adijo mod Rdeči Kmeri.

fur80 ::

Še uradno potrjena obkolitev Rusov, čez 1000 v okolici Khersona! ;)

Arestovich confirmed the cauldron for the Russians in the north of Kherson. Over a thousand orcs are surrounded.

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta...

Unchancy je izjavil:

nejclp je izjavil:

fur80 je izjavil:

nejclp je izjavil:

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

fur80 je izjavil:

Rusija nas je danes uradno sprejela kot sovražno državo, bravo, upam, da smo tudi mi tukaj kaj prispevali k temu! ;) Čestitke fantje!


neprijateljsko, ne sovražno

semantika, semantika...

A zdaj bomo zaradi kurčevih Rusov še hrvatizme uvajali?


hehe... v glavnem se ne strinjajo z nami, kar nam je lahko v ponos! :D glede na seznam njim prijateljskih držav! ;)

Komot bi napisali, da Slovenija ni več prijateljska država. Ne pa da je neprijateljska. Ko smo bili v skupni državi, se je uporabljalo manj hrvatizmov, kot se jih zdaj.

Točno to. Eni ali ne znajo drugače ali pa nočejo.


Odvisno kako naglasiš, se mi ne da sedaj iskat, ampak lahko rečeš tudi lepo slovensko naglašeno neprijateljska... se ti ne zdi? ;)
Evo: ima tudi TezkoDihanje svoj point ;)
https://fran.si/iskanje?View=1&Query=ne...

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: fur80 ()

darksamurai ::

nejclp je izjavil:

... Pa ne spet? že n-tič.
Ker sta v osnovi ideji različni. Ideja o enakosti za vse ni enaka ideji o večvrednosti nekaterih.

Lahko noč.


Haha, jaz lahko enako rečem, "Pa ne že spet?..." :)

Ideja o "enakosti" za vse ima droben tisk, ki se je pokazal v praksi v vseh komunističnih državah.
1. vse, ki imajo drugačno mnenje je potrebno pobiti. Se lepo vidi kako ste komunisti "strpni" do vseh nas drugače mišlečih.
2. vladar&bližnji so "malo" bolj enaki kot vsi ostali

Pri točki 1. drobnega tiska so bili veliko bolj učinkoviti kot nacisti in fašisti. Za implementacijo "enakosti" pa moraš temeljito izpolniti obe točki, kar se je pokazalo v praksi v vseh komunističnih državah.

D3m ::

Jarno je izjavil:

Cepec! Spomni se, koliko pomoči so USA namenile Sovjetski Zvezi med WW2, da o pomoči pri osvobajanju Evrope ne govorim.
Potem pa je še bil Marshalov načrt etc.


V zgodovini so bile vedno reparacije in povojne obnove, kot tudi sponzoriranja vojn.

Kaj naj bi bilo tako special pri USA???

Prezentacija?
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Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: D3m ()

TezkoDihanje ::

fur80 je izjavil:

Še uradno potrjena obkolitev Rusov, čez 1000 v okolici Khersona! ;)
Arestovich confirmed the cauldron for the Russians in the north of Kherson. Over a thousand orcs are surrounded.
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta...


Tole mesto je praktično porušeno, pa v njem je živelo samo cca 4000 ljudi.
Malo verjetno, da je tam jurja ruskih vojakov. Prej nekaj sto.

Pac-Man ::

Dolg članek bodočega gosta gulaga. Avtomatski prevod.

https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and...

Alexey Arbatov

Head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Member of the RIAC


...

Thanks to the coming to power of a democratic administration, START-3 was extended by five years until February 5, 2026. In June 2021, a full-fledged summit between Russia and the United States was held in Geneva, which opened the way for the start of consultations on strategic stability. During the first rounds, the parties created two working groups: "on the principles and objectives of future arms control" and "on potential actions that could have a strategic effect."

But this process was abruptly interrupted when, on December 16, 2021, a diplomatic demarche of Russia followed in the form of two draft treaties (with the United States and NATO), which, in a rather ultimatum form, put forward demands for NATO to refuse to expand to Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries and contained other proposals in the field of arms control and military activities. Russian documents did not give the impression of a thorough legal and military study, to a large extent duplicated each other, and in a number of issues did not fit together (for example, on limiting medium-range missiles, the deadline for notification of withdrawal from treaties).

Neither the United States, nor the alliance as a whole, agreed to the demand not to expand NATO, although they accepted a number of other specific Russian proposals on arms control: first of all, the non-deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles in Europe with on-site inspections (to make sure that Russian missiles do not exceed the permitted range, and American missiles are not placed in missile defense launchers in Romania and Poland) [2] .

Until now, the suddenness of Russian initiatives, the choice of the moment and form of their advancement without any visible connection with the dialogue on strategic stability that began in Geneva, remains unexplained.
An even bigger mystery is when the Kremlin's decision in principle on a military special operation was made. Russia's diplomatic initiatives in December coincided with a massive concentration of a large military force near the Ukrainian border, followed by large naval maneuvers, including the redeployment of warships to the Black Sea. Therefore, the opinion prevailed in the West that Moscow's diplomatic challenge was deliberately designed to be rejected and should have served only as a pretext for starting military operations against Ukraine in order to return it by force to the traditional Russian sphere of influence [3] . However, most independent Russian experts believed that Moscow was not preparing for war, but was seeking to exert indirect military pressure on Ukraine and NATO in order to obtain political concessions from them [4] .

Russian experts can hardly be reproached for an erroneous forecast.

It’s just that, unlike their Western counterparts, they relied on repeated statements by Russian officials who refuted foreign predictions of an upcoming “military invasion” into Ukraine and explained major military events as planned exercises on the territory of Russia and Belarus. For example, at the end of January, Foreign Minister S. Lavrov said: “If the beginning or prevention of a war with Ukraine depends only on Russia, then now we can say for sure: there will be no war.” True, he later made a significant reservation: “We do not want wars. But we will also not allow rude attacks on our interests, to ignore our interests” [5] . But most of the Russian public accepted only the first part of the statement, especially since on February 16, 2022, the Ministry of Defense announced the completion of the maneuvers and the withdrawal of troops from the borders of Ukraine to the places of permanent deployment, which was broadcast on television for several days [6] . Then there was an unexpected meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on February 21, 2022, and after it, the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR. In the early morning of February 24, Russia launched a special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine. The West responded with unprecedented multi-stage sanctions, the supply of weapons and military equipment to Kyiv, as well as the termination of the US-Russia dialogue on strategic stability, despite Moscow's willingness to continue the process. [7] .

...

Now in the Russian media discourse one hears that there are only two options in the Ukrainian conflict: Russian victory or nuclear war. What would be a victory is not very clear, since the fulfillment of the tasks of the SVO in the public sphere is often interpreted in different ways, and in the end will be determined by the highest state leadership. But with a nuclear war, everything is very clear - it would be the worst and irreversible defeat of Russia in its thousand-year history, since it would mean the physical destruction of the Russian people, their state and habitat. The catastrophic nature of such a scenario was repeatedly noted by Russian leaders [57] . It would have become an incomparably greater disaster than the Mongol invasion, the great turmoil, the collapse of the tsarist and Soviet empires, after which Russia again and again had a chance to be reborn. And the fact that at the same time Ukraine, Western countries and, probably, the rest of the world would have been “turned into radioactive dust” can only serve as a consolation for adherents of the shahidic worldview.

...
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

fur80 ::

D3m je izjavil:

Jarno je izjavil:

Cepec! Spomni se, koliko pomoči so USA namenile Sovjetski Zvezi med WW2, da o pomoči pri osvobajanju Evrope ne govorim.
Potem pa je še bil Marshalov načrt etc.


V zgodovini so bile vedno reparacije in povojne obnove, kot tudi sponzoriranja vojn.

Kaj naj bi bilo tako special pri USA???

Prezentacija?


USA je dala Rusiji med WW2 samo vozil čez 400 000, če ne veš? ;)

TezkoDihanje je izjavil:

fur80 je izjavil:

Še uradno potrjena obkolitev Rusov, čez 1000 v okolici Khersona! ;)
Arestovich confirmed the cauldron for the Russians in the north of Kherson. Over a thousand orcs are surrounded.
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta...


Tole mesto je praktično porušeno, pa v njem je živelo samo cca 4000 ljudi.
Malo verjetno, da je tam jurja ruskih vojakov. Prej nekaj sto.

Možno ja,, lahko da Ukrajinci napihujejo, da delajo paniko med Rusi, so le prvič v taki situaciji, da so jih obkolili. :)

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: fur80 ()

Pac-Man ::

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu...

Had to sign deal with Ukraine to allow grain out of Odessa

In other news, the HIMARS are making no difference at all in the war

Oh. And Russia always abides by deals it signs

The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Pac-Man ::

20 refusnikov, ki se po treh in pol mesecih vojne niso želeli vrnit na fronto so zaprli v klet, kjer so jih obdelovali politkomisarji. Trenutno so neznano kje, družine ne morejo stopit v stik z njimi.

Video Shows Russian Soldiers Refusing To Fight In Ukraine


video shot by a Russian soldier captures a military mutiny in Ukraine -- as men from a unit of military engineers defy their commander and refuse to fight. Photos sent by another soldier from the unit showed a basement where they were later detained.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

D3m ::

Pac-Man je izjavil:

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu...

Had to sign deal with Ukraine to allow grain out of Odessa

In other news, the HIMARS are making no difference at all in the war

Oh. And Russia always abides by deals it signs



Malo pretiravaš z mistiko.
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tomlin ::

HVALA BOGU, Z ZLOČINSKO RUSKO KAMARILO JE NAJBOLJE BITI NEPRIJATELJ

Poleg Slovenije še Grčija, Danska, Slovaška in Hrvaška.


V začetku marca, le nekaj dni po tem, ko je Rusija sprožila svojo trenutno neizzvano invazijo na Ukrajino, ki so

jo obsodili Zahod in številne druge države, je predsednik Vladimir Putin naročil vladi, da ustvari register

"neprijateljskih držav".

Na seznamu so ZDA, Kanada, Velika Britanija, Ukrajina, Avstralija, Singapur, Japonska, Nova Zelandija, Tajvan,

Mikronezija, Črna gora, Albanija, Švica, Andora, Južna Koreja, Lihtenštajn, Monako, Norveška, San Marino, Češka

in Severna Makedonija.


https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-unfriend...

D3m ::

Kakšno zločinsko?
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tomlin ::

Ruski zločinci niso uvrstili jedrnih EU držav. Klavec Putin skuša taktizirati s tem svojim kretenskim seznamom!

Geho ::

Comandante je izjavil:

fur80 je izjavil:

Rusija nas je danes uradno sprejela kot sovražno državo, bravo, upam, da smo tudi mi tukaj kaj prispevali k temu! ;) Čestitke fantje!

Trud je koncno obrodil sadove! Danes se pije white russian! :))



Najbolj tekne v kombinaciji z vsakodnevnim ognjemetom, ki se praviloma zacne okoli 22:00CET. За здоровье, су́ка!


 Ne tak, ne tak! Welcome to Ukraine SUKA!

Ne tak, ne tak! Welcome to Ukraine SUKA!

endelin ::

Jože P Damijan je pomilovanja vreden. Nisem mislil da je tak rusofil.

fur80 ::

Upajmo, da bo stari čimprej pripravljen, ker sedaj zgleda da še ni?! Naj se neha zajebavat, ker kolko je star, se lahko zgodi, da ne bo dočakal konca vojne, potem mu pa nobena priprava ne pomaga.
Kaj so kaj Ukrajinci podpisali danes, menda ja ne, da bodo Odeso odminirali?
US not prepared to provide Ukraine with ATACMS.

In a briefing on July 22, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that U.S. President Joe Biden is not prepared to provide Ukraine with ATACMS, surface-to-surface missiles with a range of over 300 kilometers.


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta...

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: fur80 ()

nejclp ::

darksamurai je izjavil:

nejclp je izjavil:

... Pa ne spet? že n-tič.
Ker sta v osnovi ideji različni. Ideja o enakosti za vse ni enaka ideji o večvrednosti nekaterih.

Lahko noč.


Haha, jaz lahko enako rečem, "Pa ne že spet?..." :)

Ideja o "enakosti" za vse ima droben tisk, ki se je pokazal v praksi v vseh komunističnih državah.
1. vse, ki imajo drugačno mnenje je potrebno pobiti. Se lepo vidi kako ste komunisti "strpni" do vseh nas drugače mišlečih.
2. vladar&bližnji so "malo" bolj enaki kot vsi ostali

Pri točki 1. drobnega tiska so bili veliko bolj učinkoviti kot nacisti in fašisti. Za implementacijo "enakosti" pa moraš temeljito izpolniti obe točki, kar se je pokazalo v praksi v vseh komunističnih državah.

Zdaleč največ ljudi je pobil kapitalizem, ampak pustimo to.
Ko fašisti pobijajo ljudi, to pomeni, da gre vse po načrtu. Ko jih komunisti in kapitalisti, pomeni, da se je načrt sfižil.

Bistvena razlika.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenil: nejclp ()

Pac-Man ::

Toliko o Mearsheimerju.

https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkxi8ebbB...


"If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try that". —John Mearsheimer, September 2015


Res je to rekel, recenzija tistega predavanja:

https://iai.tv/articles/how-we-got-puti...

...

Putin’s essay is chilling both because of its form but also its content. The claim that Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are one people belonging to the historical Russian nation is shocking.

...

We now know that Putin really meant his July 2021 invective against the Ukrainians; he really believes that Ukraine does not exist as a nation; and he really seems to think that his own historical role is the restoration of the former Soviet Union. Put differently, his stance is no longer informed by the kind of strategic calculus implied by Mearsheimer.

...

Seen from this perspective, Putin looked around and saw that the United States was distracted by China, that Germany had a new and untested government, and that Europe was dependent on Russian gas. The moment seemed propitious for his move, but his move was a function of his broader goals. His talk hadn’t been cheap after all.

...

Realists do not only underestimate leaders’ preferences; they also disdain domestic politics and agency. Watching Mearsheimer speak, one is struck by his disregard for the Ukrainian yearning for democracy and closer ties to the West, which he depicts as foreign-incited and ultimately irrelevant. He dismisses the 2014 Euromaidan revolution as a coup, a gratuitous disturbance to the work of great power politics. And yet, there are times when history is powered by peoples’ desires rather than the logic of the international system.

...

Ultimately then, this is the tale of how Vladimir Putin’s idiosyncratic imperial revanchism met the Ukrainians’ national aspirations to potentially upend the Realist logic of great power politics. Perhaps it is also the story of how an uncalled-for war of choice that was supposed to put an end to the liberal post-Cold War world, might well end up invigorating and expanding the very institutions it was meant to terminate.



P.S.

komentarji na 1. povezavi ain't half bad.

As a Romanian i remember the former king of Romania that lived in exile had to use all his influence and connections to give Romania a place at the table to even start the whole process of joining nato. And to say that nato actively wanted that expansion is simply not true. First of all ,the candidates have to really show that they want to join and show their value and potential to the alliance before they re even considered. I will also add the words of my history teacher : "considering our incredibly difficult past ,never in our history were we guaranteed independence by the world s greatest power like we are now." It may not mean a lot to a country that had it good, but for us it was very important to have that peace of mind that we don't have to be appeasing our warring neighbor.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.

Zgodovina sprememb…

  • spremenilo: Pac-Man ()

cias ::

Sedaj kuhamo še situacijo s Kitajci :))

Briliantne poteze naših gospodarjev, kaže da bojo dosegli svoje 2030 cilje.
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