Forum » Loža » Volitve v ZDA 2020
Volitve v ZDA 2020
Temo vidijo: vsi
jozef67 ::
Trump je za ZDA volilce vse tisto, kar preostala 40 letna politična garnitura ni! To kar naj bi za Slovenijo bil komedijant... So volilci v ZDA res budasti in tako drugačni? Al morda zrete v lastno ogledalo?
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenil: jozef67 ()
c3p0 ::
Razpravljati takole o nekih hudih rečeh kaže, da niso sposobni ničesar.
Drugače pa je bau bau o neki hudi levici in antifa konstrukt Trumpa in desničarjev. Če bi obstajala neka močno povezana in militantna levica namesto 1001 mostly kumbaja frakcij, bi se vsem že tresle spodnjice. Sanders je to nekako vlekel skupaj a je Sanders preveč star in miroljuben človek, da bi izkoristil pravi potencial progresivnega dela volilnega telesa.
Propaganda je na obeh straneh, MSM in big tech so desnico sicer odstranili v razne bolj nišne forume, YT je na koncu začuda še en bolj zmernih, čeprav še vedno bannajo precej kanalov, ki so daleč od skrajne desnice. O desnici govorim v "stari" definiciji, dandanes si skrajni desničar, že če nisi pro-Biden.
Se strinjam, da dotično prikazani niso sposobni kaj več od debate o teh rečeh, pač krajšanje časa ob dnevni starbucks dozi. Definitivno pa tema ni šala in bi lahko šli kar lepo čičat.
Pac-Man ::
Iz
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538
V glavnem - Biden ima precej več poti do 270 elektorskih glasov kot Trump, verjetno bo jasno že danes. Potem sledi Donaldovo kujanje & tožarjenje po sodiščih.
I think people need to put PA/MI in a different mental bucket than AZ/WI/NV/GA/NC. In PA/MI, much more of the vote is uncounted, and it's likely to take a while before it is counted. In those other states, we have a more finite sense of what's in and what's outstanding.
So, what's left in Nevada is mail and provisionals. No more in-person votes. That's likely good news for Democrats, unless the late-arriving mail ballots were MUCH redder than the early-arriving ones. If Biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI that's ballgame. He could lose PA, GA and NC and he'd still have 270.
You could debate the order. I think WI is actually the most certain since I don't see many ways for Trump to gain votes there. The same probably holds for NV although *in theory* it's possible late-arriving mail votes could be red if R's waited longer to send in their ballots.
AZ is the only one of the four that's been *called* by anyone, including the AP, which is usually pretty cautious, but some AZ-focused data folks think that was too aggressive.
There's a LOT of vote left to count in MI and I haven't spent too much time looking at it myself, but it *seems* like it's mostly mail votes from blue counties which you'd think would be quite good for Biden. If I spent more time on MI I could give y'all a better answer but my prior for now is that although Biden *could* lose it, he could also wind up winning it by several points.
If one of those four falls though, though, Biden is probably at least a toss-up in GA, and probably also PA, plus some outside chances in NC.
There are a LOT of uncounted votes in CA, NY, MD, MA, NJ and IL. Biden's popular vote margin is going to expand quite a bit. Maybe 11-12m outstanding votes between these states, which might be +25%-ish for Biden. Also a few more in CT, WA and OR. Not much outstanding vote left in red states. It probably works out to Biden getting 52-ish percent of the popular vote on a turnout of 155 million-ish votes, which would be around 80 million. Trump might get say 73-75 million. Likely the top two popular vote totals in US history, both surpassing Obama '08.
So reporting of Green Bay absentees nets Biden a gain of about 4K upping his lead to around 11K. that still doesn't include city of Kenosha which will add more to Biden total. Very few remaining sources of hope for Trump in WI.
MI Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 49.2% (2,345,412 votes)
Biden (D): 49.2% (2,343,266 votes)
Estimated: Estimated 86.4% - 99% in
Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue.
Just want to leave this here as an historical artifact of the mood right now because if you're following closely, the question is whether Trump can still win? (Yes he can but it's becoming harder.)
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538
V glavnem - Biden ima precej več poti do 270 elektorskih glasov kot Trump, verjetno bo jasno že danes. Potem sledi Donaldovo kujanje & tožarjenje po sodiščih.
I think people need to put PA/MI in a different mental bucket than AZ/WI/NV/GA/NC. In PA/MI, much more of the vote is uncounted, and it's likely to take a while before it is counted. In those other states, we have a more finite sense of what's in and what's outstanding.
So, what's left in Nevada is mail and provisionals. No more in-person votes. That's likely good news for Democrats, unless the late-arriving mail ballots were MUCH redder than the early-arriving ones. If Biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI that's ballgame. He could lose PA, GA and NC and he'd still have 270.
You could debate the order. I think WI is actually the most certain since I don't see many ways for Trump to gain votes there. The same probably holds for NV although *in theory* it's possible late-arriving mail votes could be red if R's waited longer to send in their ballots.
AZ is the only one of the four that's been *called* by anyone, including the AP, which is usually pretty cautious, but some AZ-focused data folks think that was too aggressive.
There's a LOT of vote left to count in MI and I haven't spent too much time looking at it myself, but it *seems* like it's mostly mail votes from blue counties which you'd think would be quite good for Biden. If I spent more time on MI I could give y'all a better answer but my prior for now is that although Biden *could* lose it, he could also wind up winning it by several points.
If one of those four falls though, though, Biden is probably at least a toss-up in GA, and probably also PA, plus some outside chances in NC.
There are a LOT of uncounted votes in CA, NY, MD, MA, NJ and IL. Biden's popular vote margin is going to expand quite a bit. Maybe 11-12m outstanding votes between these states, which might be +25%-ish for Biden. Also a few more in CT, WA and OR. Not much outstanding vote left in red states. It probably works out to Biden getting 52-ish percent of the popular vote on a turnout of 155 million-ish votes, which would be around 80 million. Trump might get say 73-75 million. Likely the top two popular vote totals in US history, both surpassing Obama '08.
So reporting of Green Bay absentees nets Biden a gain of about 4K upping his lead to around 11K. that still doesn't include city of Kenosha which will add more to Biden total. Very few remaining sources of hope for Trump in WI.
MI Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 49.2% (2,345,412 votes)
Biden (D): 49.2% (2,343,266 votes)
Estimated: Estimated 86.4% - 99% in
Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue.
Just want to leave this here as an historical artifact of the mood right now because if you're following closely, the question is whether Trump can still win? (Yes he can but it's becoming harder.)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
arnecan1 ::
Pac-Man ::
Saj ni nič potrebnno, da bi ji lezli v rit. Dovolj bi že bilo, da bi Slovenci in naši levi mediji nehali biti sovražni do Melanije in Donalda.
Ker je v prejšnjih desetletjih dala toliko signalov, da jo muči nostalgija po domovini.
januar 2005:
https://www.dnevnik.si/109694
Znano je, da se je Knavsova v preteklosti predstavljala kot Avstrijka, zadnja leta pa ni nobenega dvoma več o izvoru izbranke ameriškega milijarderja, s katerim sta pred leti skupaj obiskala celo sprejem ob slovenskem državnem prazniku v New Yorku.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
lynxslo5 ::
mtosev ::
Vidim, da bidenu dobro kaže. 
Core i9 10900X, ASUS Prime X299 Edition 30, 32GB 4x8 3600Mhz G.skill, CM H500M,
ASUS ROG Strix RTX 2080 Super, Samsung 970 PRO, UltraSharp UP3017, Win 11 Pro,
Enermax Platimax 1700W | moj oče darko 1960-2016, moj labradorec max 2002-2013
ASUS ROG Strix RTX 2080 Super, Samsung 970 PRO, UltraSharp UP3017, Win 11 Pro,
Enermax Platimax 1700W | moj oče darko 1960-2016, moj labradorec max 2002-2013
Smrekar1 ::
Biden za zmago v Pennsylvanniji potrebuje vsaj 75% podporo med preostalimi glasovnicami, ki so bile poslane po pošti.
Med do sedaj preštetimi ima 78% podpore.
Nora24 je Trumpa razglasila za očitnega zmagovalca v Pennsylvanniji. Take imamo.
Med do sedaj preštetimi ima 78% podpore.
Nora24 je Trumpa razglasila za očitnega zmagovalca v Pennsylvanniji. Take imamo.
w0mbat ::
Biden za zmago v Pennsylvanniji potrebuje vsaj 75% podporo med preostalimi glasovnicami, ki so bile poslane po pošti.
Med do sedaj preštetimi ima 78% podpore.
Nora24 je Trumpa razglasila za očitnega zmagovalca v Pennsylvanniji. Take imamo.
jaz sem pa prebral prej da ima trump v penn. 700.000 glasov več k beden
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: w0mbat ()
mahoni ::
To je to. Ne rabmo vec naprej spremljat. Biden je zmagal. Jeeee, veliko slavlje in velik pomen za Slovenijo.
Aston_11 ::
Biden za zmago v Pennsylvanniji potrebuje vsaj 75% podporo med preostalimi glasovnicami, ki so bile poslane po pošti.
Med do sedaj preštetimi ima 78% podpore.
Nora24 je Trumpa razglasila za očitnega zmagovalca v Pennsylvanniji. Take imamo.
Poznajo pač več zmagovalcev - kot spolov med mederno otročadjo.
Nezmagovalec
Očitno zmagovalec
Zmagovalec
Zmagovalec FTW
Zmagovalec z nižjim številom glasov od poraženca.
Ni da ni.
LeQuack ::
To je to. Ne rabmo vec naprej spremljat. Biden je zmagal. Jeeee, veliko slavlje in velik pomen za Slovenijo.
Kako pa mi zmagamo, kaj dobimo za nagrado?
Quack !
kow ::
Ja, 538 je spet pošteno kiksnil: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20...
Vse drzave je zadel, kjer je znan zmagovalec, razen Floride? Kjer je pa itak bilo zelo na knap.
Pac-Man ::
Cel kongres se voli vsake 2 leti, senatorji so zamaknjeno razdeljeni v razrede, ki se jih prav tako voli na 2 leti, ampak imajo nato 6 let mandata.
Vse kaže, da bodo republikanci ohranili večino, zato lahko pogledamo kdo bo na tnalu 2022
2022 United States Senate elections @ Wikipedia
Murkowski, Rubio, Grassley, Rand Paul, Mike Lee...
Vse bo seveda odvisno od motivacije demokratskih volivcev.
Vse kaže, da bodo republikanci ohranili večino, zato lahko pogledamo kdo bo na tnalu 2022
2022 United States Senate elections @ Wikipedia
Murkowski, Rubio, Grassley, Rand Paul, Mike Lee...
Vse bo seveda odvisno od motivacije demokratskih volivcev.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
::
eric_cartman je izjavil:
Janša ne seže Kurzu niti do kolen..
ha, ha! Tole drugače povedano se bere: ni vreden pol Kurtza!
Pac-Man ::
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
KAVINSKY ::
Samuel ::
iz vesolja vidno, da gre za prevaro (kar prištel so deset tisoče glasov Bidenu):
sam upam, da so jih ulovil, drugač bi pa res znalo pridit do državljanske vojne
sam upam, da so jih ulovil, drugač bi pa res znalo pridit do državljanske vojne
If you notice this notice, you will notice that this notice is
noticably not worth noticing.
noticably not worth noticing.
recmajkemi ::
V tej državi vsi vedo za vse svinjarije, ki se dogajajo.
Ko pa vprašaš, kdaj so prijavili kako stvar pa črički.
Če veš, obišči & prijavi na; e-uprava.gov.si/podrocja/vloge/vloga.html?id=2377
Ko pa vprašaš, kdaj so prijavili kako stvar pa črički.
Če veš, obišči & prijavi na; e-uprava.gov.si/podrocja/vloge/vloga.html?id=2377
Massacra ::
iz vesolja vidno, da gre za prevaro (kar prištel so deset tisoče glasov Bidenu):
sam upam, da so jih ulovil, drugač bi pa res znalo pridit do državljanske vojne
Ti tvoji grafi ne štimajo, kar se časovnice tiče: še ob 13h po našem času, kar je 7h zjutraj gl3d3 na Michigan, je imel Trump 55.000 glasov prednosti!
Daj vir teh grafov (pa ne aka Cammbridge Analitica)
Pac-Man ::
iz vesolja vidno, da gre za prevaro (kar prištel so deset tisoče glasov Bidenu)
Tako se to dela. Ko nek distrikt prešteje svoje, sporočijo rezultat v centralo in se prišteje totalu.
That weird-looking bump in the Wisconsin results is what happened when 170,000 absentee votes from the city of Milwaukee poured in all at once. It’s not nefarious. It’s just counting.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
kow ::
Stavnice dajo Trumpu samo se 15 odstotkov. Vceraj je imel 40 odstotkov moznosti.
Bo zanimivo kaj bo 'oranzni' rageal, ko se zbudi.
Bo zanimivo kaj bo 'oranzni' rageal, ko se zbudi.
DeeJay ::
Našim Janšistom se tud že meša
Zato pravm, da se v Sloveniji bl bojim Janšistov, kot katergakoli muslimana.
Zato pravm, da se v Sloveniji bl bojim Janšistov, kot katergakoli muslimana.
Hypathia ::
Gotovo je, Trump se 4 leta
Ja, še 4 leta bo po twiterju jokcal, da so mu bile volitve ukradene.
A to misliš Hillary?
Hillary je imela svoje razloge, bila je boljša kandidatka, tudi od Bidna, ker je USA sexist shithole, je pač izgubila volitve. Ampak njeno pritoževanje ne bo prišlo niti blizu temu, kar nam v naslednjih dnevih/tednih pripravlja otročaj Trump, če bo poražen.
If you're a man, don't say anything
to a woman on the street that you wouldn't
want a man saying to you in prison.
to a woman on the street that you wouldn't
want a man saying to you in prison.
A-242 ::
Miki N ::
Bo pa zanimivo, kaj se bo zdaj pod Bidenom zgodilo s Kronco in Antifo/BLM. Dva sicer različna pojava katerih inteziteta je bila menda odvisna od Trumpa - saj tako je šla uradna modrost.
kow ::
Edini razlog, da je Hillary imela sansa za predsednico: zena bivsega predsednika.
Je bila boljsi kandidat kot napol dementni Biden? Verjetno res. Samo s tem se lih ne bi hvalil.
Je bila boljsi kandidat kot napol dementni Biden? Verjetno res. Samo s tem se lih ne bi hvalil.
Pac-Man ::
Bo zanimivo kaj bo 'oranzni' rageal, ko se zbudi.
Nič ni zanimivo, tip je simpl, ne prizna poraza, stokal bo čez goljufijo.
Bolj pomembno je kako bodo reagirali republikanski politiki.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
A-242 ::
w0mbat ::
kaj pa pravite na jakost dolarja? A bo pod bidnom dolar isti kot je bil al bo kot pod obamo ko je bil zelo švoh.
Egidij88 ::
Če Biden dokončno dobi Nevado, Wisconsin in Michigan ima potem 270 glasov in je zmagal? Ampak v vseh treh vodi za manj kot en procent. Pensilvanija, Severna Karolina in Đorđa pa ima Trump malo večjo prednost.
Pac-Man ::
Wakey wakey.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta...
Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the “pollsters” got it completely & historically wrong!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta...
Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the “pollsters” got it completely & historically wrong!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
bluefish ::
Trump & Co. že cepetajo:
Trump again tried to cast doubt on the election Wednesday morning, arguing "surprise ballot dumps" were causing him to lose states.
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien is projecting confidence in the president's chances in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. He said Wisconsin was headed to "recount territory."
Trump again tried to cast doubt on the election Wednesday morning, arguing "surprise ballot dumps" were causing him to lose states.
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien is projecting confidence in the president's chances in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. He said Wisconsin was headed to "recount territory."
Pac-Man ::
Če Biden dokončno dobi Nevado, Wisconsin in Michigan ima potem 270 glasov in je zmagal? Ampak v vseh treh vodi za manj kot en procent. Pensilvanija, Severna Karolina in Đorđa pa ima Trump malo večjo prednost.
Če poskrolaš malo navzdol imaš tu za vsako zvezna državo razloženo kaka je situacija in kaj se še čaka.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2...
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and
fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.
Hypathia ::
Če Biden dokončno dobi Nevado, Wisconsin in Michigan ima potem 270 glasov in je zmagal? Ampak v vseh treh vodi za manj kot en procent. Pensilvanija, Severna Karolina in Đorđa pa ima Trump malo večjo prednost.
Ključno je to koliko glasov še ni preštetih in iz katerih okrožij. Večinoma gre za urbana okolja, kjer se praviloma bolj voli za demse, večinoma so to glasovi po pošti, kjer ravno tako bolje kaže demokratom.
If you're a man, don't say anything
to a woman on the street that you wouldn't
want a man saying to you in prison.
to a woman on the street that you wouldn't
want a man saying to you in prison.
Zgodovina sprememb…
- spremenilo: Hypathia ()
bluefish ::