Ukrajina Part II

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedi...

Članek iz novembra 2021, ki izjemno dobro predvidi težave, s katerimi se Rusi srečujejo trenutno.

Evo, še mal otroške propagande:

https://t.me/Tsaplienko/2377

...za tiste ki obvladajo švasana slova.

TezkoDihanje je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:51 izjavil:

ginekk je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:16 izjavil:

Hah, povprečen Rus ne mara te vojne in če gre protestirat na ulico mu takoj grozi 15 let zapora.

Povprečni Rus sploh ne ve, da je kakšna vojna. Nimajo pojma kaj se dogaja v Ukrajini.
Npr. hčera v Harkovu pokliče mamo v Rusijo in pravi, da je sredi obstreljevanja in mama vsa presenečana, o kakšnem obstreljevanju hčera govori
Povprečen Rus bo zvedel resnico v naslednjih mesec in letih. To bo šele šok. Marsikdo v Rusiji ima kolege, žlahto v Ukrajini. Nimajo pojma kaj se dogaja.

Mah ne vem, Japonci še zdaj ne vedo kaj so njihovi dedje počeli med drugo svetovno vojno in jih sploh ne briga.

Na sliki je jasno vidno, da ima mama Nazi sonce na čelu

The modern Russian patrol boat 'Ivan Bykov' which was burnt out by the Ukrainian Navy has finally sank in the Black Sea today.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1...

BlaY0 je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:23 izjavil:

A to je že blo:



...nisem bral zadnjih 20 strani prepucavanja.

No, a bo kdo kaj komentiral? Al je vse to namještalka in so zajete ruske izvidnike z mučenjem prisilili, da so to povedali pred kamerami.

TezkoDihanje je 9. mar 2022 ob 19:14 izjavil:

BlaY0 je 9. mar 2022 ob 19:03 izjavil:

Mah ne vem, Japonci še zdaj ne vedo kaj so njihovi dedje počeli med drugo svetovno vojno in jih sploh ne briga.

Verjamem, da nobenega ne briga kaj je bilo 80 let nazaj, ker ni veliko kvalitetnih informacij. Ampak zdaj se vse razve zelo hitro. Kaj in kdo je kaj počel, pa tudi.

Ja ampak na Japonskem niti v šolah ne učijo niti nikoli niso o tem delu njihove zgodovine.

https://twitter.com/KeirGiles/status/15...

After all we have seen over the years of how Russia fights its wars, how can anybody now claim to be surprised that its forces deliberately engineer humanitarian catastrophes, and create desperate human suffering in order to exploit it.

We knew this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr...

BlaY0 je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:23 izjavil:

A to je že blo:



...nisem bral zadnjih 20 strani prepucavanja.

Dobro povejo ko rečejo, da se bodo slej ko prej ti fantje vrnili domov v Rusijo, in tam ne bodo imeli več potrpljenja da se jih še naprej zavaja.

Muhaha, evropski kvinslingi ne smejo nabavljat ruskega plina ter naft, kavboji pa lahko ruski uranium.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy...

A Ukrajinci imajo sploh kakšne ¨težke¨ letalske bombe? Če bodo Rusi začeli metati 1000kg bombe, bodo dober splanirali Ukrajino.

Tole s porodnišnico.. pa nimam besed. Čisto zlo.

Voss je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:37 izjavil:

Solecus, kaj pa je Srbija naredila BiH, Hrvaški, Kosovu in tudi nam?

Nisi pozabil še Libije ?

BlaY0 je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:40 izjavil:

Maxlos je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:32 izjavil:

PS : Kaj so Američani naredili prvi dan bombandiranja Srbije, ne vojne invazije, ali konflikta :-)

...definitivno niso bombardirali civilnih ciljev...

Pa daj poglej si press konferenco zgoraj. Je v ruščini, tako da ne bi smel imeti težav z razumevanjem.

Voss je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:37 izjavil:

Solecus, kaj pa je Srbija naredila BiH, Hrvaški, Kosovu in tudi nam?

No, Srbija je Kosovu delala to kar je Ukrajina v Donbassu. Potem je prišel NATO in EU ter jim vzel tisti del. Tukaj je prišel Putin, ki hoče zradirat celo Ukrajino ne samo osamosvojiti tistega dela. Vmes se je 5x že zlagal.

NE ponavljate eno ter istega, sej je lažje. Počasi Putin, putin putin, vsakič ko za cingla.
Ker vsi vemo, da nimaš od odprtja teme, alternativnega vira stanja dogajanja v Rusiji ali Ukrajini.
Edino kar ti ni jasno, zakaj pri tako opevanih uspehih Ukrajine, kolona še vedno ne gori, samo stoji.

Pac-Man je 9. mar 2022 ob 18:56 izjavil:

Nosečnici.

https://twitter.com/AlchevskUA/status/1...

Video, prvih par sekund je neposredno po napadu
https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/statu...


Drugi v prejšnjih dneh niso imeli take "sreče"

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/...

JBG, denacifikacija.

Sej bodo pokazali Naci odred na vrhu bolnice. Pa bo vse fake in urejeno.
JE pa res, da kot kaže, ni smisla se preseliti no evakuirati v 300km oddaljeno mesto, ko se že ve, da bo v obroču rusov, pa še pokradli ti ne bodo vsebine stanovanja.

PS: in kako kaj alt viri iz rusije ? Aja imaš točno informacije ki jih rabiš.

Se oglasim v petek, se boste že zmenili za resne definirane odgovore. Morda bom še kaj dodal, ker bluzenja, kdo je oborožen civil vam niti ne gre, dokler ne razumete kdaj je po definiciji vojna, kdaj je po definiciji konflikt, ki je tam že cca 8 let, samo en se je kalkuliral,...


Hej fantje, se moramo ponavljat...

Ali je že zmanjkalo orožja rusom, vem ste se drli o tej nesposobnosti....
Zakaj glede na tako opevane enolične zahodne medije Ukrajinskega uspehe, kolona ki pirha na kijev in se ni premaknila že kak teden ne gori in o njej poročajo vsak dan...
Kaj je s tem z no fly zono ? Ce je vse tako super, zakaj rabijo no Fly zono. Kaj nimajo air supiriority in vse pokrito s sami, in rusi padajo dnevno... Res pa da je zanje čase vreme še vedno slabo, ampak ja bore malo padajo..

Neumno vprašanje, se kaj kolone premikajo, ker ta obkoljena mesta, se lepo obkoljuje in ni problema z benzom ter hrano.
Neumno vprašanje : če ni bilo deklaracije vojne, je v Ukrajini res vojna ? Ker brez deklaracije Vojne je to konflikt, kot je to vedno definirano drugje po svetu.
PS: imate kakšne alternativne ruske vire, ker kot kaže govorite eno ter isto pa se po enem tednu se ni realiziralo ?
PS: ne me razumet napačno, ko primerjat primerjate temo srede Evrope ali korejskem polotoku in ne lepo puščavi.

Se bo pa pospešilo recikliranje izrabljenega goriva.
Dosedaj so uran kupovali ker je bilo ceneje.

BlaY0 je 9. mar 2022 ob 20:34 izjavil:

WizzardOfOZ je 9. mar 2022 ob 20:13 izjavil:

Machete je 9. mar 2022 ob 19:58 izjavil:

Tole s porodnišnico.. pa nimam besed. Čisto zlo.

Uradno letalski napad na porodnišnico, stene pa prestreljene z metki in eksplozije so prišle z notranje strani, ker je ven vse metalo skozi okna.
Ne verjamem ne eni ne drugi strani. Oboji so z maslom na glavi. Na koridorje za civiliste tudi enkrat eni, drugič drugi streljajo.

Ma spet si vse pomešal, ni čudno, da potem dvomiš že sam vase. Bomba pade na stavbo, prebije dva ali tri štuke in šele nato eksplodira. Jasno da potem vse ven pomeče. Tista, ki pa pade pred stavbo pa šrapnel razmeče tudi proti stavbi. Povej če še kaj ne bo jasno, ti bom z veseljem razložil.

Luknje od šrapnelov zgledajo malo drugače.

Kot pravim, obe strani lažeta na polno. Nobeni od njiju nebi dal ovc za čuvat.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/WmEOnI8n...

Lep večer necepljenim.

Maxlos je 9. mar 2022 ob 20:08 izjavil:

Sej bodo pokazali Naci odred na vrhu bolnice. Pa bo vse fake in urejeno.

OK. Recimo da je po tvoje.

V tem primeru so nosečke talke. Gre za rusko govoreči folk, njihove ljudi.
Kot sem že omenil, J@st z MMC ima menda žlahto v Mariupolu.

Kako rešiš situacijo s talci? Z letalskim bombardiranjem?

In ne govori mi, da jih skrbi za vojake, ker so v preteklih dneh praktično pokazali, da jih boli kuratz.

Pa saj niste resni... Putin se tudi skriva pa to še ne pomeni, da moramo celo Moskvo zravnati z zemljo... Ne vidim drugo kot da iz frustracije bombardirajo vse povprek...

WizzardOfOZ je 9. mar 2022 ob 21:02 izjavil:

BlaY0 je 9. mar 2022 ob 20:49 izjavil:

WizzardOfOZ je 9. mar 2022 ob 20:37 izjavil:

Luknje od šrapnelov zgledajo malo drugače.

Kot pravim, obe strani lažeta na polno. Nobeni od njiju nebi dal ovc za čuvat.

No, dobro je vsaj to, da priznaš da si zmeden. Res je, ne veš kakšne bombe so padle tja, lahko da je bilo nekaj različnih tipov. Ja, lahko tudi, da se je ukrajinska vojska vkopala pred bolnico ali na dvorišče postavila havbice/minomete ampak to ne opravičuje bombardiranja bolnice. To samo dokazuje, da je ruska vojska totalno nesposobna, saj ne zna eliminirat grožnje brez 1000x večje postranske škode. Ampak jaz ne verjamem v to. Obstaja video zajetega padalca (pripopan dve strani nazaj) ko pravi da so imeli navodila, da streljajo tudi na civile.

Meni to z porodnišnico zgleda tako, kot da so se ukrajinci skrivali med nosečnicami in jih s tem izpostavili nevarnosti bombardiranja. Zato tudi prestreljene stene, ker so bili tam boji. Ruska stran je pa po tem, ko je videla polno porodnišnico ukrajinskih vojakov (kot pred tem polno telovadnico in povhen vrtec ukrajinskih vojakov) poklicala na pomoč letalstvo, ki so sovražnika zbombardirali.

Wooooow

Pravijo, da Rusija nima vojaško-industrijskega kompleksa? Nit:

https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/15016...

I am going to push back on the idea that what we see is that the Russian Armed Forces are merely having severe supply and readiness issues and that we should consider it to be overall modern.
Here's the first problem, SEAD. It's failing to suppress UA air defences, but that's more a feature of procurement planning rather than a bug. The VKS lacks a significant number of modern ELINT platforms.
Let's do a head count, 2 Tu-214Rs and 3 modernised Il-20 derivatives have been received in the last 20+ years. The A-100 projects is still being delayed and the reports from KAZ suggest further Tu-214 orders will not be forthcoming.
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/...

Now to explain the practical implications. Without those platforms in the air the Ru VKS rarely has an idea when a UA radar is being turned on unless they are almost on top of it in practical terms ( closer than 50 kms ). They just get notified when they get acquired.

The second issue is the collapse of communications and the lack of interoperable real time data links with the same standards. In practice the VDV, Army and VKS sort of have different systems. These get fed and combined at the army HQ usually during drills.
Firing anti radar missiles in a battle space you can't deconflict and is filled with your own AD is a bad idea, even if you think there's a caricature level casual carelessness among Ru officers (I don't think it's the case). You just lose missiles without achieving their aim.

The next issue is what modern means for ground forces and air forces. It is supposed to mean All Weather forces. But at the very least night operations, but the issue is the bulk of the Russian ground equipment has 70s IR illuminators for its commanders.
We have also seen Russian troops use flares during their attack of the nuclear powerplant in Energodar and lacking more sophisticated night fighting equipment. Even recent tank upgrades omitted that, like the T-80BVM.
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4289299.ht...

When defining a modern tank we usually consider modern ammo (discrepancy in crew experience could negate it via outmanoeuvring) modern sights for the gunner, thermal equipped 360 periscope for the commander (hunter killer capability) and a battlefield information system.
Even though the Ru MoD considers most of its tanks as modern, in practice by the above standard only a small subset are. To tie it to experience from recent combat showcases that even the thermals on the Strykers can be used to avoid and counter ambushes.

The next bit is the VKS&AD procurement priorities, they are dominated by people with influence over the Kremlin, we see SHORAD development funding & some procurement funding and S-400 purchases. The issue is that this funding is greater or comparable to aircraft procurement.
This is an anomaly when it comes to modern air forces. As priority should go to various types of surveillance platforms, manned but also possible high endurance unmanned platforms , then strike and multiroles, then an operational budget for high training rates and then AD.
The inversion of that paradigm suggest that procurement is driven by Almaz-Antey and Rostech's funding needs and desires, rather than actual modern AF doctrine. The DoD Procurement slideshows may cause migraines, they don't cause inferiority by design to this degree.

And the other remaining problem is the issue with the continuous lack of JDAM equivalents. JDAM kits are cost effective, Russia just doesn't have a comparable program that has delivered kits at anywhere the same rate even if we account for a smaller fleet.

What I think @KofmanMichael might have been influenced by if I may paraphrase a document the Chieftain quoted in one of his talks, "The tendency to view the battlefield as a test agency". The use of Su-57, Mig-31 with Kinzhal, UGVs in Syria and so on.
But if we then go back to Ru MoD's overall experience with pre-production models we see that it's not really an indication for adoption or that these systems are anywhere as mature as the promotion materials suggest.
Armata is still in trials, Kh-31 was adopted but then the Tu-22M3M that was to carry it was cancelled, Project 855 sub never being adopted but becoming a test bed for Project 855M. Even the Su-57 is being accepted with a planned re-engining amongst other systems being pending.

As a whole while the Russian armed forces don't have the ability to act as a modern force at this scope. If we're talking about a subset across most branches of a combined total of 40-50 k . Maybe. But a ground component of 200k with backing, as we have seen is a problem.
Finally, to reiterate when you're not picking just a company or three from a brigade to send, you get to see how unprepared the service is. That shouldn't be news at this point, tanks without motor oil, dead batteries, drivers who can't handle ditches with tracked vehicles...

My assessment of the current fighting is also different. I presume that the Ruforces in the South met more success due it being easier to support them Ru VKS(as I mentioned in a previous thread + UA AD focus on Kyiv). That pushed battered UA forces back behind the rivers.
The panic in Kyiv from days 1&2 has also led to more newly formed units being sent around the capitol. But because the Russian forces are so limited for their tasks in the South we just see small prongues which the remaining UA units are being able to check.
The constant fear of a landing in Odessa seems to have forced a lot more UA troops to be kept there than necessary. Again consistent with a less aggressive (in terms eagerness to go on the offensive of military action) civil government which got spooked at the start.
But overall we're seeing some mauled UA units still mounting an effective defence and a more conservative posture by UA and a southern Ru advance that captured a few bigger towns and stores, and thus doesn't have as a dire of a supply a situation, but it's facing problem 2.
The manpower isn't there to hold even 4 larger towns. As UA reserves are brought forth South and East I don't think Ru keeping thousands in the towns and a bunch advance columns trying to move out is tenable. Mass warcriming doesn't degrade mil power in 2 weeks.

In the words of Blackadder : It started badly, it tailed off a little in the middle and the less said about the end the better — but apart from that it was excellent.

A to ti je kavna usedlina povedala? Glede dotične bolnišnice? Al' od kje tako slikoviti opis, kako točno so potekale zadeve?

WizzardOfOZ je 9. mar 2022 ob 21:18 izjavil:

Enake učne metode, kot v siriji - ameriško učenje gverilskih in terorističnih enot. Isto je namreč ISIS delal. V bolnišnicah so imeli stacionirane vojake in so od tam obstreljevali, ko so jih pa zbombardirali, so pa mediji jamrali, kako so bolnišnice obstreljevali.

Tudi če je res, nosečnice so talke, njihovi ljudje, menda jih osvobajajo grdih grdih nacistov.

Po zahodni doktrini bi vsak vojak žrtvoval življenje, da jih reši.
Tule pa lepo zašmelcajo bombo in bo že Bog posortiral. Kdo je ISIS?

https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/str...

"Stručnjak za geopolitiku Cvrtila: Rusi od prodaje nafte i plina sad zarađuju još više"

Zeeeh, ja to tud mi vemo, če gre plin za 20X gor, da zaj rusi zaj zaslužijo v enem letu za 20 let.

Tko da lačni ne bojo, nekej jim bo pa zgleda ostalo še za bombe.

Pac-Man je 9. mar 2022 ob 21:26 izjavil:

WizzardOfOZ je 9. mar 2022 ob 21:18 izjavil:

Enake učne metode, kot v siriji - ameriško učenje gverilskih in terorističnih enot. Isto je namreč ISIS delal. V bolnišnicah so imeli stacionirane vojake in so od tam obstreljevali, ko so jih pa zbombardirali, so pa mediji jamrali, kako so bolnišnice obstreljevali.

Tudi če je res, nosečnice so talke, njihovi ljudje, menda jih osvobajajo grdih grdih nacistov.

Po zahodni doktrini bi vsak vojak žrtvoval življenje, da jih reši.
Tule pa lepo zašmelcajo bombo in bo že Bog posortiral. Kdo je ISIS?

Po zahodni doktorini varno raketiras zadeve z dronom in se vmes cohas po jajci, al pa kjerkoli se cohajo zenski pripadniki enot. K pobijes par ducatov civilov na poroki, pa zacnes jamrati, da si nekejvmes videl terorista in te nekaj civilnih zrtev res ne mores odvrniti od odstranitve donevno nevarne tarce.

Kljub temu je ruski napad, pobijanje civilistov in ogrozanje jederskih elektrarn poden od podna. Americani se niso sli tako dalec, da bi obstreljevali jederske centrale. Verjame, da jim moramo zgolj dati dovolj casa, vendarle, rusi so prvi na svetu v tej novi poden od podna kategoriji.

FireSnack je 9. mar 2022 ob 21:30 izjavil:

Hrana letos vse do 1200% navzgor. Tako pač je ko je vojno stanje. Dizel bi lahko prilezel tudi do 5EUR za liter. V Italiji vse do 8EUR za liter.

Zanimivo. V italiji je 1kg barilla špagetov manj kot evro, pri nas pa več kot 2.5€.