Ukrajina Part II

This is why they’ll lose

Today’s post will be rather short, mainly because it should have been added to yesterday’s post covering the massive buttrage explosion over Eurovision. As it turned out, I saw the story in question only after publishing yesterday’s piece. The story was an otherwise mundane report on the decline of tourism in the Crimea in The Moscow Times. I never would have considered writing about it were it not for one of the last lines:

“The Crimean authorities have denied the falling popularity of the peninsula among Russian tourists. Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Ruslan Balbek, who oversees the tourism sector, said that Svyaznoy- Travel’s data don’t reflect the the real situation in the market.

“This is most likely either an information attack or a lack of knowledge. Crimea is one of the main tourist destinations in Russia,” Balbek was quoted as saying by the RIA Novosti news agency.”

“An information attack.”

“INFORMATION ATTACK.”

“IN-FUKCING-FORMATION ATTACK!”

A negative report on tourism is “most likely an information attack.” Yes, the CIA had a whole team of guys working on that cunning ruse!

Do you get a sense of what I mean when I say that Putin’s regime has reduced this society to the maturity level of children? This is by no means the first time we’ve heard this from Russian state officials. Indeed, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov couldn’t even wait for the Panama Papers to be released before warning audiences that the West was preparing an “information attack” against poor president Putin. Officials spotlighted by Navalny’s organization have claimed his investigations are “ordered by the West.” I don’t know about you, but if Navalny were falsely claiming that I own certain property I would just show who actually owns it, or I would show how I managed to afford said property via legitimate sources of income. But these days, all you have to do is say “information attack” and that will suffice.

This, dear reader, is yet another reason why that “New Cold War” you’ve been hearing about is going to be very, very short. There was a time when the whole “information war” thing was just pablum to feed the TV-watching masses, people for which the Russian ruling class has nothing but the deepest contempt. But in the past couple years it’s become increasingly clear that the leadership has been “getting high on its own supply,” so to speak. They are beginning to believe their own propaganda.

In systems where you have real, competitive democracy and political pluralism you may find seemingly hopeless gridlock and bickering, but it also means you always have a source of new ideas. Of course Western political systems are not immune to group-think or conventional wisdom. We saw what happens when such a system breaks down during the Bush administration. Sure, there was some intelligence showing that Iraq had WMDs. There were also a lot of qualifiers, unknowns, and contradictory evidence. Intent on going to war, the Bush administration decided it would only consider that evidence which supported its case, however flimsy. Since then American politics have shifted towards an anti-intervention, more isolationist position, even among conservative individuals. Trump’s success contrasted with Jeb’s spectacular failure bear witness to this fact. Essentially, no matter how limited the choices may look, the very idea that there should be dissent, pluralism, a “marketplace of ideas,” etc. would seem to ensure that no ideology can dominate indefinitely, and if some mode of thinking has been dominant long enough without achieving any positive results, it will eventually be replaced by other ideas.

The Kremlin regime doesn’t work this way. The only ideology is ambiguous “patriotism,” and patriotism is determined by loyalty to your superiors, ending with Putin at the top of the pyramid. Whereas in the West we admire people who followed their conscience, from Smedley Butler to Daniel Ellsberg, such individuals would be seen as nothing but traitors by the Russian elite and sadly, much of the Russian public. Even if you’re a die-hard Kremlin fan, even if you are on Putin’s side, dissent is a risky move. I for one have seen how pro-Kremlin writers who failed to be sufficiently supportive of Putin and his policies were viciously attacked by their own compatriots. Insufficient faith in the Dear Leader’s infinite wisdom is tantamount to treason. Depart from me, ye who work neo-conservatism!

The ultimate result of all this is that the system cannot reform in any meaningful way. Like the Bush administration years ago, the Kremlin is engaging in a behavior that has been termed “bending the map.” It refers to a tendency for people who are lost to mentally “adjust” their map so that they are not really lost or closer to safety than they actually are. While believing that there’s a town just over that next ridge is comforting, it is also delusional and likely to lead to disaster. On the other hand, knowing you’ve got ten or twelve miles to the nearest road means you can mentally prepare for that journey and anything that happens along the way. But whereas the Bush administration was bending the map, sometimes it seems like the Kremlin is simply crumpling it up into a ball and setting it on fire.

Unfortunately, there is little but bad news on the horizon for Russia, but every new report will likely be met in roughly the same way.

“It’s an information attack!”

“The West is behind this!”

“It’s the fifth column! No the sixth column!”

What about the poor sap who says “Maybe we’re doing something wrong?” Well he’s definitely a traitor, probably working for the Americans! Toss him out the window!

And that’s why they’ll ultimately lose. For all its faults, the West is made up of countries that adapt over time, more or less rejecting failed ideas and keeping what works. Russia, on the other hand, belongs to that club of authoritarian nations where adaptation is either off-limits or severely hampered. More alarmist purveyors of the New Cold War thesis often like to shout about how Russia is using the same tactics of the Soviet Union against the West. And that’s supposed to make us afraid? How effective were they last time, and how scary is it if in order to wage their little Cold War the Kremlin has to dredge up the very same outdated tactics that ultimately failed?

Call me paranoid.... bridge over Kam'yanka river taken out delaying potential reinforcements to #avdiivka

Avdiivka under severe Russian fire, private houses bombed, destroyed. Ukraine forces do not respond.- local accunts report.

01:51 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza I think, they were firing with tube artillery, probably MSTA #Donetsk @Ukr_Che No, Giatsynts

01:42 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza I can remember many things, but so many landings in such short period I didn't hear #donbasreports

01:33 #Avdiivka @fingerw80 Frequency is 60 pcs per minute, not less [=a landing each second]

01:33 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 It lands already uninterruptedly in the same direction. Wall vibrate like strings. How many landed there?100?200?

01:31 #Avdiivka @JuZolyshkaLia So far car alarms go off, damn, landings are heard one after another #donbasreports

01:25 #Avdiivka @fingerw80 Just hell here, incomings, it feels like at town's old part [=south], 120mm,very many of them, no such for a year

01:18 #Avdiivka @666_mancer [vk] Mom on the phone, at #3 & #5, #Levaneskoho, panes broke

23:20 #Avdiivka @patriot_petya [vk] "town's old part: f*ck-up, loudly, just over my head" "Damn, I can see a house burning"

23:04 #Avdiivka @owl_ok From #Promka direction, explosions reach us #donbasreports

22:45 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza 4 shells [landed] at #Promka, orcs' mortar detachment is at #Spartak #donbasreports

Several countries currently use and store the self-propelled mortar Tyulpan. Among them Russia with 120 mortars in storage and 8 active, North Korea (no quantity data available) and Syria with 24 mortars in active service. Currently, experts in Donbass region spotted four batteries of 240-mm Tyulpan mortars. Supposedly, they were introduced by two tactical groups from Russia, as soon as Ukraine army never possessed the 2S4 mortars. Mass media mentioned the use of Tyupans in the assaults of Lugansk and Donetsk airports. However, many people challenged that. But furhther pictures and videos shared by number of bloggers later on were supporting this version. You can find one of the mine types for Tulips (53-F-864) on the picture below.

Vanich je 25. maj 2016 ob 12:43 izjavil:

Rusija z Ukrajino zamenjala obsojenega vojnega zločinca Savčenkovo za dva Rusa.
Savčenkova je že na letu za Ukrajino.

... in Ukraine right now, where critical journalism is especially necessary. Few reforms have gone fully into effect and the country has recently taken a hard turn back toward cronyism. President Petro O. Poroshenko installed a close ally as prime minister, breaking the division of legislative and executive power established after the Maidan Square protests in 2014 that led to the ouster of his predecessor. He also named a crony with no law degree as general prosecutor. As corruption and nepotism threaten the hope of Ukraine’s revolution, journalists are being told that they are helping the enemy just by doing their jobs.

Inauguration of the monument to the Hero of Russia to Eugene Trundaevu held on 10 October at the Egorievske cemetery, the place of his burial.

At the opening ceremony of the memorial gathered relatives, friends Eugene and his colleagues, representatives of public organizations District Zarayskiy district administration.

Before the start of the opening of the monument to the rural dean of churches Zaraysk District Pyotr Spiridonov conducted a prayer service. Then he took the word of the head of Zaraysk district Viktor Pavlov. "It is painful and bitter to realize that life leave the best of the best, in the prime of life, full of hopes and plans. Nothing can make up for these losses. I express gratitude to parents, Valentin Petrovich and Vera Anatolievna for proper upbringing Eugene. The heroism and courage of your son will always be an example for us. Low bow to you and thank you so much! "- Viktor Pavlov said.

With heartfelt words to the crowd were also made ​​by the Chairman of the Board of the Moscow regional branch of the "Combat Brotherhood" public organization, member of the Moscow Regional Duma Sergei Knyazev, a company commander of the Moscow Military Command School Gregory Gorkovenko, captain of the military unit №08275 Balyura Alexander, brother of Eugene Dennis Trundaev.

At the end of the official statements by the grand opening of the monument to weapons volleys and laying flowers.

Trundaev Eugene was born in 1986 in Zaraysk. He graduated from the Moscow Higher Military Command School. There was a platoon commander of the 1st infantry battalion 200th separate motorized rifle brigade military part number 08 275 of the Murmansk region. Courageously defended the interests of their homeland.

Pac-Man je 2. jul 2016 ob 15:16 izjavil:

Pogledamo še ne-RT verzijo?

https://theintercept.com/2016/07/01/nat...

Hacked Emails Reveal NATO General Plotting Against Obama on Russia Policy

Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, until recently the supreme commander of NATO forces in Europe, plotted in private to overcome President Barack Obama’s reluctance to escalate military tensions with Russia over the war in Ukraine in 2014, according to apparently hacked emails from Breedlove’s Gmail account that were posted on a new website called DC Leaks.

Obama defied political pressure from hawks in Congress and the military to provide lethal assistance to the Ukrainian government, fearing that doing so would increase the bloodshed and provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with the justification for deeper incursions into the country.

Vse kar je želel je pomoč v orožju za Ukrajino. Če bi imeli poleti 2014 ali januarja 2015 visokozmogljive protitankovske sisteme, bi znala bit zgodovina nekoliko drugačna. Kot omenjeno, se je pred kratkim upokojil, tako da ni dosegel nič.

Ukrajina je dobila par neoboroženih HMMWVjev, protiartilerijskih radarjev in kodiranih radijskih postaj.

ZbitaGrinta je 4. jul 2016 ob 13:36 izjavil:

..amerika je tista ki ustvartja pristisk med Evropo in Rusijo in hoče vojno...

Renee Parsons has been a member of the ACLU’s Florida State Board of Directors and president of the ACLU Treasure Coast Chapter. She has been an elected public official, an environmental lobbyist and staff member of the US House of Representatives in Washington DC.

To suggest that President Clinton II will surpass the current President’s support for armed conflict, despite his occasional reluctant warrior image while spreading more bombing, violence and chaos than his predecessor, is probably a safe bet.

...

As the US warship approached the Crimean peninsula skirting Russian waters, an unarmed Sukhoi SU-24 fighter jet, carrying only electronic gear, made several ‘close passes’ to the Cook and ultimately simulated numerous offensive maneuvers; thereby, according to the US State Department, ‘gravely demoralizing’ the Cook’s crew.

Pac-Man je 16. jul 2016 ob 04:31 izjavil:

Predvidevam, da gre za sandernisto, ki je nenadoma začutila potrebo po pisanju.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/renee-par...

Renee Parsons has been a member of the ACLU’s Florida State Board of Directors and president of the ACLU Treasure Coast Chapter. She has been an elected public official, an environmental lobbyist and staff member of the US House of Representatives in Washington DC.

In smo dobili tole pogrevanje tople vode:

To suggest that President Clinton II will surpass the current President’s support for armed conflict, despite his occasional reluctant warrior image while spreading more bombing, violence and chaos than his predecessor, is probably a safe bet.

...

As the US warship approached the Crimean peninsula skirting Russian waters, an unarmed Sukhoi SU-24 fighter jet, carrying only electronic gear, made several ‘close passes’ to the Cook and ultimately simulated numerous offensive maneuvers; thereby, according to the US State Department, ‘gravely demoralizing’ the Cook’s crew.

Tale o demoralizirani posadki je eksluzivno iz tin hat virov.

Smrekar1 je 24. avg 2016 ob 07:54 izjavil:

Brane22 je 24. avg 2016 ob 01:35 izjavil:

OK, bili so v zvezi s Kremljem.

So what ?

To je kao neki nevidenega in drugim nepojmljivega ?

No, vsekakor razbije mit o lokalnem uporu. Stiki 'upornikov' s Kremljem so jasen dokaz, da so bili dogodki zrežirani v Moskvi, ki je priskrbela tudi rekvizite in kaskaderje.

windigo je 1. avg 2016 ob 10:52 izjavil:

Za Smrekarja: Putler je prevzel nadzor nad Amnesty International in jim po novem diktira, kaj morajo pisati.

Smrekar1 je 24. avg 2016 ob 08:11 izjavil:

En del dogodkov. Potem, ko so ukrajinski in zahodni režiserji poskrbeli za soliden uvod.

Brane22 je 24. avg 2016 ob 09:23 izjavil:

Zanimive so tvoje definicije "čiste demokracije".

Ko pa se pa 80+% folka na Krimu izreče da bi bili v Rusiji, to je "Putlerovska propaganda".

Si pomislu mogoče na to, da če ne bi imeli ozadje v volji naroda, bi bili na Krimu že masovni punti ?

To da so se organizirali, hvala bogu. Če se ne bi in bi računali na "demokratičnost zahoda", bi prišli skozi tako kot Srbi. Bili bi dobesedno krivi, da so živi.

Brane22 je 24. avg 2016 ob 09:31 izjavil:

BTW, od kod ti to "ruski fašizem" ?

Fašizem in nacizem sta v bistvu definirana kot šovinistični nacionalizem - v smislu "rad imam svojo nacijo, ki je v človeškem pomenu kvalitetno vrednejša vrednejša od (vseh) drugih."

Nisem videl fašizma doslej v dejanjih ruske države.

Smrekar1 je 24. avg 2016 ob 09:43 izjavil:

Pri uporabljeni definiciji demokracije ni nič mojega.

Zanimivo kako, heh, fluidna je tvoja definicija demokracije. Zakaj uporabljaš dvojna merila?