Kdo kaj služi z delnicami?

Trumpova ravnanja vsakodnevno vplivajo na borzne tečaje, kot mu v danem trenutku ustreza. Pogosto si sproti izmišljuje izjave ali ukrepe. A bolj kot z njimi pretresa trg, večje so možnosti za rast brezposelnosti in prihod recesije. Ko se bo to zgodilo, bom vstopil z varčevanji. Vse, kar sem do zdaj kupil, pa trdno držim.

Moj portfelj ta trenutek je samo -1,06%.

Jst sem danes nekje 0,5% v zelenem. Uran 9% gor danes, tudi Indija v plus, EU obveznice.

SQZ.L & peers

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News...

U.S. President Donald Trump has taken to social media to criticize once again the UK's energy policy to pursue renewables and tax North Sea oil and gas operators more.

"The U.K. is making a very big mistake. Open up the North Sea. Get rid of Windmills!"...

slovenska borza obstaja samo od 2012 leta?
koliko pa je zrastla od prejšnjega ATH?
to pa seveda ne bodo povedali, ker presstituti na rtvslo pišejo samo po nareku...

Velja, velja še tisti, ki so perilo nosili prati/likati sedaj sami to delajo.

Trump & ekipa so imeli v planu, da znižajo cene nafte in bodo šle obresti dol. To se še ni zgodilo, verjetno se pa bo. Po ceni nafti smo že v recesiji, kaj bodo naredili z OM bomo pa še videli.

Verjetno bodo pa potopili USD, da bodo pocenili kredit in potem dvignili OM, da dvignejo USD nazaj.

Your proposal outlines a kind of strategic currency devaluation followed by a tightening cycle, which has historical precedent in various forms. Let's break it down and evaluate its implications:

? Summary of Your Strategy:
Devalue the USD - Lower the value of the dollar (likely via monetary easing or intervention) to:

Reduce the real burden of U.S. debt ("devalue their credit").

Improve trade competitiveness (exports become cheaper).

Stimulate inflation (higher asset prices, higher wages nominally).

Raise Margin Rates / Interest Rates - After the initial devaluation:

Tighten financial conditions to restore USD value.

Curb inflation.

Attract capital inflows (carry trade, demand for higher-yielding USD assets).

? Economic Logic Behind It
This is essentially a shock-then-stabilize maneuver--used in certain economic crisis situations or major restructuring events. Here's a look at potential benefits and risks:

? Potential Benefits:
Debt Relief via Inflation

Devaluing USD makes existing debt cheaper in real terms (especially if it's long-term and fixed-rate).

Government balance sheets improve over time.

Boost to Exports

A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive globally.

Could help reduce trade deficits and bring manufacturing jobs back.

Short-Term Economic Stimulus

Devaluation can increase corporate earnings (especially multinationals), drive up asset prices, and temporarily boost GDP.

Capital Attraction Post-Tightening

Once margin rates are lifted, the now-cheap USD with higher yields could attract global capital, supporting USD again.

? Major Risks & Challenges:
Loss of Global Confidence

Abruptly devaluing the dollar could erode trust in U.S. assets or Treasuries.

Countries and investors may reduce dollar holdings or demand higher yields.

Imported Inflation & Cost of Living

A weaker USD raises the cost of imports (oil, food, etc.).

This hurts lower-income households the most.

Debt Service Costs (Post-Rise)

After raising rates, U.S. government debt becomes more expensive to service--especially problematic given large deficits.

Market Volatility

The whiplash of devaluation followed by tightening could cause asset bubbles, crashes, or capital flight if poorly timed.

Geopolitical Fallout

Currency wars: Trade partners (e.g., China, EU) may retaliate with their own devaluations.

Allies may view this as manipulation, causing strain in economic relationships.

? Strategic Precedents:
Nixon Shock (1971): Suspension of the gold standard effectively devalued the dollar, helping inflation but also triggering years of stagflation.

Japan 2013 (Abenomics): Yen was devalued to boost exports, followed by attempts at fiscal tightening.

UK Post-Brexit Pound Collapse: Pound devaluation gave temporary export boost but imported inflation spiked.

? Alternative or Complementary Strategies:
If the goal is to manage debt and boost economic strength, consider:

Gradual inflation targeting (2.5-3%) to erode debt without destabilizing currency.

Targeted fiscal policy to stimulate productivity (infrastructure, R&D).

Capital gains or wealth tax reform to rebalance fiscal burden.

Trade rebalancing via industrial policy rather than just currency moves.

? Final Thought
Your idea is theoretically sound in that managed devaluation followed by tightening can reset parts of an economy. However, doing this with the world's reserve currency involves far more systemic risk than if a smaller nation did it. The U.S. would need careful coordination with:

The Fed (for monetary actions),

Treasury (debt issuance & market signals),

Trade partners (to avoid conflict).

CHATgpt bolje opiše moje misli :)

Bomo videli v katero smer se bo gap zaprl, običajno se z nižjo OM.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene...

Kdaj se bo kupovalo naftaše?

Buffet se kar kopici OXY.

R3NK je šel v istem času za 300%. Imam pa na radarju še DEZ, ki je zaenkrat še dokaj poceni...

Z IBK sem si EUR poslal direktno na Coinbase, je že kdo to počel? Sem računal, da je to malo hitreje, ali se bodo protiteroristi sedaj vtaknili? Gre za male pare pod jurja.

Scaramouche3 je 28. maj 2025 ob 13:40 izjavil:

Kdaj bodo izplačila vzajemne,kdo ve?

Haha, naš intelektualc čaka na tistih 100 evrov.

Pa sej faking ne moreš verjet...

Aja, pa včeraj sem prodajal bitcoine in danes kupil DEZ.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/s...

Deep sea mining

iKst_ je 28. maj 2025 ob 22:38 izjavil:

Chalky je 28. maj 2025 ob 19:57 izjavil:

Danes NVIDIA earnings report...pričakujem blowout report in strm padec delnice...

Nvidia beats on earnings and revenue as data center sales jump 73%

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/28/nvidia-...

Kristalna kugla pokvarjena.

Malidelničar je 29. maj 2025 ob 07:04 izjavil:

Hmm to od NVDA je pa kar šok, da so presegli napovedi. Sem bil prepričan, da gre dol.

Zmeraj je odvisno od trenda trga. Ker je bil trend zdaj navzgor potem veš da bo Nvidia tudi šla gor, če bi bilo obratno bi šla dol. Sami earningsi niso niti pomembni realno.

na zacetku dneva 1,5 plusa etf, sedaj ze 0,9 minusa. te delnice so isti nateg kot razne piramidne sheme. komaj cakam da pridem na nulo da grem s tega ven :(

No saj je še čas da gre dol. Danes je čuden dan. Tudi $ spet slabi.

iKst_ je 29. maj 2025 ob 19:31 izjavil:

musicfreak je 29. maj 2025 ob 18:51 izjavil:

na zacetku dneva 1,5 plusa etf, sedaj ze 0,9 minusa. te delnice so isti nateg kot razne piramidne sheme. komaj cakam da pridem na nulo da grem s tega ven :(

Kakšen imaš časovni okvir za investicijo?

Zakaj je važno koliko je šlo gor/dol danes?

investiral sem za 2 leti da bi privarceval dodatnih 10.000 evrov z vlozkom 50.000 plus dodatnih 1500 na mesec. sedaj sem 4000 v minusu zaradi tega pohlepa... mam se sicer 65.000 na banki na sreco in nisem vsega dal noter. boljse dobivat 2 procenta kot pa morat vsake pol ure gledat na app kako ti stoji denar.

2 leti je načeloma precej prekratko obdobje za investiranje v delnice.

Pa v kaj si vložil, če ni skrivnost? S&P500 je v 24 mesecih zrastel za 37%, VWCE za 27%. S kombinacijo 50k lump sum in DCA 1500€ na mesec bi z investicijo v S&P500 naredil skupno cca. 28% donosa.

Je pa povsem nerealno pričakovati 10% donos na kratek rok. Šola za drugič. Pusti v indexu vsaj 10-15 let.

Članek stane samo 0,003%. To ni nič v primerjavi z zajetno mesečno rento.

iKst_ je 29. maj 2025 ob 20:01 izjavil:

2 leti je načeloma precej prekratko obdobje za investiranje v delnice.

Pa v kaj si vložil, če ni skrivnost? S&P500 je v 24 mesecih zrastel za 37%, VWCE za 27%. S kombinacijo 50k lump sum in DCA 1500€ na mesec bi z investicijo v S&P500 naredil skupno cca. 28% donosa.

Je pa povsem nerealno pričakovati 10% donos na kratek rok. Šola za drugič. Pusti v indexu vsaj 10-15 let.

kaj mi koristi 10 let ce ne vem ce bom se cez 3 leta ziv?

tega: https://www.justetf.com/de/etf-profile....

zal sem sel noter sredi novembra lani.

To je šinto, ki vas trola, move on.

Zanimiv intervju, če bi koga zanimalo:

INTERVJU Darko Marolt, dolgoletni vlagatelj: Ko na borzi začutim paniko, prodam
Od pobiranja dobičkov ni še nihče propadel. Treba pa se je naučiti prodati tudi z izgubo, pravi zelo izkušeni vlagatelj in zmagovalec lanske borzne igre vlagatelja Maksa, ki se znova začne čez nekaj dni.
https://www.finance.si/vlagatelj-maks/i...

Btw. a je kdo od vas sodeloval v Borzni igri Financ?

gruntfürmich: ne ni potrebno.